Predictions of the aids epidemic in the U.K.: The use of the back projection method

1989 ◽  
Vol 325 (1226) ◽  
pp. 123-134 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Incubation Period ◽  
Projection Method ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Back Projection ◽  
Aids Epidemic ◽  
Period Distribution ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Future ◽  
Extreme Distributions

The results of this analysis illustrate three points. First, that for predictions of AIDS cases four to five years into the future, the back projection method is largely insensitive to the assumption one makes for the incubation period distribution. The two extreme distributions considered represent the fast and slow extremes of incubation period distribution usually proposed; distributions that lie between these two give predictions within the range of predictions that the two generate. The estimated number of new HIV infections, however, is highly sensitive to the assumed incubation period distribution; prediction of AIDS cases in the long term will be similarly sensitive.

Ovarian Dysfunction in Fetally Irradiated Beagles

1977 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 658-659
Author(s):  
T. M. Seed ◽  
M. H. Sanderson ◽  
D. L. Gutzeit ◽  
T. E. Fritz ◽  
D. V. Tolle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gamma Rays ◽  
Low Dose ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Ovarian Dysfunction ◽  
Dose Rates ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Microscopic Evaluation ◽  
Ovarian Pathology ◽  
Normal Offspring

The developing mammalian fetus is thought to be highly sensitive to ionizing radiation. However, dose, dose-rate relationships are not well established, especially the long term effects of protracted, low-dose exposure. A previous report (1) has indicated that bred beagle bitches exposed to daily doses of 5 to 35 R 60Co gamma rays throughout gestation can produce viable, seemingly normal offspring. Puppies irradiated in utero are distinguishable from controls only by their smaller size, dental abnormalities, and, in adulthood, by their inability to bear young.We report here our preliminary microscopic evaluation of ovarian pathology in young pups continuously irradiated throughout gestation at daily (22 h/day) dose rates of either 0.4, 1.0, 2.5, or 5.0 R/day of gamma rays from an attenuated 60Co source. Pups from non-irradiated bitches served as controls. Experimental animals were evaluated clinically and hematologically (control + 5.0 R/day pups) at regular intervals.

DIGITALIZATION OF LABOR MIGRATION PROCESSES IN UZBEKISTAN. WORLD EXPERIENCE

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 29-39
Author(s):  
Sulkhiya Gazieva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Technological Change ◽  
Labor Migration ◽  
Smart Phone ◽  
Logic Circuits ◽  
Digital Logic ◽  
The Internet ◽  
The Future

The future of labor market depends upon several factors, long-term innovation and the demographic developments. However, one of the main drivers of technological change in the future is digitalization and central to this development is the production and use of digital logic circuits and its derived technologies, including the computer,the smart phone and the Internet. Especially, smart automation will perhaps not cause e.g.regarding industries, occupations, skills, tasks and duties

Der Wald-Wild-Konflikt – was kann die Forstökonomie zur Lösung beitragen? (Essay)

2017 ◽  
Vol 168 (4) ◽  
pp. 181-185
Author(s):  
Marc Hanewinkel
Keyword(s):  
Forest Economics ◽  
Production Risk ◽  
Damage Compensation ◽  
Land Expectation Value ◽  
Compensation Methods ◽  
The Future ◽  
Single Tree Selection ◽  
Simplifying Assumptions ◽  
Forest Enterprises

The forest-game conflict – how can forest economics contribute to solve it? (Essay) Core parameters of forest economics such as land expectation value or highest revenue show that damage caused by wild ungulates can critically influence the economic success of forest enterprises. When assessing and evaluating the damage in order to calculate damage compensation, methods are applied in Germany that look either into the past (“cost value methods”) or into the future (“expected value methods”). The manifold uncertainties related to this evaluation over long-term production periods are taken into account within a framework of conventions through strongly simplifying assumptions. Only lately, the increased production risk due to game-induced loss of species diversity is also considered. Additional aspects that should be taken into account in the future are the loss of climate-adapted species, the change of the insurance values of forest ecosystems and the impossibility of specific management systems such as single-tree selection forestry due to the influence of game. Because of high transaction costs when assessing the damage, financial compensation should only be the “ultimate measure” and a meditation between stakeholder groups with the goal to find a cooperative solution before the damage occurs should be preferred.

The Future of Muslim Education in the United States: An Agenda for Research

2003 ◽  
Vol 20 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 46-82
Author(s):  
Fathi Malkawi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Education ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Muslim Education ◽  
Future Plans

This paper addresses some of the Muslim community’s concerns regarding its children’s education and reflects upon how education has shaped the position of other communities in American history. It argues that the future of Muslim education will be influenced directly by the present realities and future trends within American education in general, and, more importantly, by the well-calculated and informed short-term and long-term decisions and future plans taken by the Muslim community. The paper identifies some areas in which a wellestablished knowledge base is critical to making decisions, and calls for serious research to be undertaken to furnish this base.

Future of Commodity Markets and Investments

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hunter M. Holzhauer
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Investment Banks ◽  
Algorithmic Trading ◽  
Excess Supply ◽  
The Future ◽  
Change Concerns ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Regulatory Trends

This chapter begins with a breakdown of recent growth trends for the overall commodities market. However, the long-term future of the market will heavily depend on three pressing issues: excess supply, increased regulations, and algorithmic trading. The section on excess supply explores how traders are changing strategies to adjust to the current imbalance between supply and demand, especially in the steel industry, and how that imbalance might change in the future based on global population trends and climate change concerns. The next section examines several regulatory trends, including the dramatic exodus of some investment banks from certain segments of the commodities market followed by a section focusing on how algorithmic trading is influencing how commodities are traded. A discussion of potential scenarios for the commodities market follows. The chapter concludes by examining a few ways in which the market and commodity traders may both survive and even thrive in the future.

scholarly journals Agritourism—A Business Reality of the Moment for Romanian Rural Area’s Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6313
Author(s):  
Ramona Ciolac ◽  
Tiberiu Iancu ◽  
Ioan Brad ◽  
Tabita Adamov ◽  
Nicoleta Mateoc-Sîrb
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Distribution Channels ◽  
Scientific Paper ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tourism Potential ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Managerial Experience ◽  
Over Time

The agritourism activity can be a characteristic reality of the present, considering rural area’s sustainability, being at the same time a business reality for rural entrepreneurs and a “must have” for rural communities that have tourism potential. It is a form of tourism, through which the tourist can receive a qualitative product at a reasonable price, but also a field that can ensure sustainable development over time, being at the same time environmentally friendly. The purpose of this scientific paper is to identify the aspects that make agritourism “a possible business reality of the moment”, for Romanian rural area’s sustainability. We take into account the following areas: Bran-Moieciu area—considered “the oldest” in terms of agritourism experience, and Apuseni Mountains area, with a great inclination and potential for this activity. The study conducted for these two areas is focused on several aspects: the degree of involvement in agritourism activities, considering the number of years and managerial experience, the analysis of the types of activities/experiences offered by agritourism structures, the identification of the main reasons/motivations for the orientation towards agritourism and the manner in which this field is perceived. Aspects related to the marketing-finance part of the agritourism business are also taken into account: customers, distribution channels, financial sources, shortcomings observed by agritourism business owners and possible action directions so as to improve the activity/agritourism product. Agritourism may be “a possible business reality of the moment” for the studied areas and not only, but in the future, the entrepreneur/farmer must be constantly updated because of the changing situations that appear on the market, be able to make sustainable decisions for his/her own business, which in the future will ensure its viability and obviously its long-term profitability and development, and in the same time rural area’s sustainability.

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