Integrating potential climate change into the mechanistic–empirical based pavement design

Given anticipated climate change and its inherent uncertainty, a pavement could be subjected to different climatic conditions over its life and might be inadequate to withstand future environmental stresses beyond those currently considered during pavement design. This paper incorporates climate change effects into the mechanistic–empirical (M-E) based pavement design to explore potential climate change and its uncertainty on pavement design and performance. Three important questions are addressed: (1) How does pavement performance deteriorate differently with climate change and its uncertainty? (2) What is the risk if climate change and its uncertainty are not considered in design? and (3) How do pavement designers respond and incorporate this change into M-E design ? Three test sites in the United States are examined and results demonstrate a robust and effective approach to integrate climate change into pavement design as an adaptation strategy.

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Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Flexible Pavement Performance and Lifetime in the United States

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board ◽

10.1177/0361198118821877 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2673 (1) ◽

pp. 110-122 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Anne M. K. Stoner ◽

Jo Sias Daniel ◽

Jennifer M. Jacobs ◽

Katharine Hayhoe ◽

Ian Scott-Fleming

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Flexible Pavement ◽

The United States ◽

Pavement Design ◽

Pavement Performance ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Flexible pavement design requires considering a variety of factors including the materials used, variations in water tables, traffic levels, and the climatic conditions the road will experience over its lifetime. Most pavement designs are based on historical climate variables such as temperature and precipitation that are already changing across much of the United States, and do not reflect projected trends. As pavements are typically designed to last 20 years or more, designs that do not account for current and future trends can result in reduced performance. However, incorporating climate projections into pavement design is not a trivial exercise. Significant mismatches in both spatial and temporal scale challenge the integration of the latest global climate model simulations into pavement models. This study provides a national-level overview of what the impact of climate change to flexible pavement could look like, and where regional focus should be placed. It also demonstrates a new approach to developing high-resolution spatial and temporal projections that generates hourly information at the scale of individual weather stations, and applies this as input to the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design™ model. The impact of three different future climates on pavement performance and time to reach failure thresholds in 24 locations across the United States are quantified. Changes to projected pavement performance differ by location, but nearly all result in decreased performance under current design standards. The largest increases in distress are observed for permanent deformation measures, especially toward the end of the century under greater increases in temperature.

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Relationships between forest fine and coarse woody debris carbon stocks across latitudinal gradients in the United States as an indicator of climate change effects

Ecological Indicators ◽

10.1016/j.ecolind.2007.11.002 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 8 (5) ◽

pp. 686-690 ◽

Cited By ~ 41

Author(s):

C.W. Woodall ◽

G.C. Liknes

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Coarse Woody Debris ◽

Woody Debris ◽

The United States ◽

Carbon Stocks ◽

Latitudinal Gradients ◽

Climate Change Effects

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE LAND USE IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ECONOMIC APPROACH

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007811000218 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 02 (01) ◽

pp. 27-51 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

DAVID HAIM ◽

RALPH J. ALIG ◽

ANDREW J. PLANTINGA ◽

BRENT SOHNGEN

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

The United States ◽

Land Use Patterns ◽

Cropland Area ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Net Returns

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and projections from integrated assessment models of agricultural prices and agricultural and forestry yields. For both scenarios, we project large increases in urban land by the middle of the century, while the largest declines are in cropland area. Significant differences among regions in the projected patterns of land-use change are evident, including an expansion of forests in the Mountain and Plains regions with declines elsewhere. Comparisons to projections with no climate change effects on prices and yields reveal relatively small differences. Thus, our findings suggest that future land-use patterns in the U.S. will be shaped largely by urbanization, with climate change having a relatively small influence.

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Projected expansion in climatic suitability for Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas Disease, and five widespread Triatoma species by 2070: the role of climate change on infectious diseases

10.1101/490508 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Matthew Nichols ◽

Chris J Butler ◽

Wayne D Lord ◽

Michelle L Haynie

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Trypanosoma Cruzi ◽

Disease Surveillance ◽

Gastrointestinal Diseases ◽

The United States ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Vector Borne ◽

Current Potential

The vector-borne parasite Trypanosoma cruzi infects seven million individuals globally and causes chronic cardiomyopathy and gastrointestinal diseases. Recently, T. cruzi has emerged in the southern United States. It is crucial for disease surveillance efforts to detail regions that present favorable climatic conditions for T. cruzi and vector establishment. We used MaxEnt to develop an ecological niche model for T. cruzi and five widespread Triatoma vectors based on 546 published localities within the United States. We modeled regions of current potential T. cruzi and Triatoma distribution and then regions projected to have suitable climatic conditions by 2070. Regions with suitable climatic conditions for the study organisms are predicted to increase within the United States. Our findings agree with the hypothesis that climate change will facilitate the expansion of tropical diseases throughout temperate regions and suggest climate change will influence the expansion of T. cruzi and Triatoma vectors in the United States.

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