Global Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Flux Inferred from TanSat XCO2 Retrievals

TanSat is China’s first greenhouse gases observing satellite. In recent years, substantial progresses have been achieved on retrieving column-averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction (XCO2). However, relatively few attempts have been made to estimate terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using TanSat XCO2 retrievals. In this study, based on the GEOS-Chem 4D-Var data assimilation system, we infer the global NEE from April 2017 to March 2018 using TanSat XCO2. The inversion estimates global NEE at −3.46 PgC yr-1, evidently higher than prior estimate and giving rise to an improved estimate of global atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Regionally, our inversion greatly increases the carbon uptakes in northern mid-to-high latitudes and significantly enhances the carbon releases in tropical and southern lands, especially in Africa and India peninsula. The increase of posterior sinks in northern lands is mainly attributed to the decreased carbon release during the nongrowing season, and the decrease of carbon uptakes in tropical and southern lands basically occurs throughout the year. Evaluations against independent CO2 observations and comparison with previous estimates indicate that although the land sinks in the northern middle latitudes and southern temperate regions are improved to a certain extent, they are obviously overestimated in northern high latitudes and underestimated in tropical lands (mainly northern Africa), respectively. These results suggest that TanSat XCO2 retrievals may have systematic negative biases in northern high latitudes and large positive biases over northern Africa, and further efforts are required to remove bias in these regions for better estimates of global and regional NEE.

Dynamics of Tree outside Forest Land Cover Development and Ecosystem Carbon Storage Change in Eastern Coastal Zone, Bangladesh

Tree outside forest (TOF) has immense potential in economic and environmental development by increasing the amount of tree vegetation in and around rural settlements. It is an important source of carbon stocks and a critical option for climate change regulation, especially in land-scarce, densely populated developing countries such as Bangladesh. Spatio-temporal changes of TOF in the eastern coastal zone of Bangladesh were analyzed and mapped over 1988–2018, using Landsat land use land cover (LULC) maps and associated ecosystem carbon storage change by linking the InVEST carbon model. Landsat TM and OLI-TIRS data were classified through the Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) algorithm using Semi-Automated Classification (SAC). In the InVEST model, aboveground, belowground, dead organic matter, and soil carbon densities of different LULC types were used. The findings revealed that the studied landscapes have differential features and changing trends in LULC where TOF, mangrove forest, built-up land, and salt-aquaculture land have increased due to the loss of agricultural land, mudflats, water bodies, and hill vegetation. Among different land biomes, TOF experienced the largest increase (1453.9 km2), and it also increased carbon storage by 9.01 Tg C. However, agricultural land and hill vegetation decreased rapidly by 1285.8 km2 and 365.7 km2 and reduced carbon storage by 3.09 Tg C and 4.89 Tg C, respectively. The total regional carbon storage increased by 1.27 Tg C during 1988–2018. In addition to anthropogenic drivers, land erosion and accretion were observed to significantly alter LULC and regional carbon storage, necessitating effective river channel and coastal embankment management to minimize food and environmental security tradeoff in the studied landscape.

Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes

Mosses are ubiquitous in northern terrestrial ecosystems, and play an important role in regional carbon, water and energy cycling. Current global land surface models that do not consider mosses may bias the quantification of regional carbon dynamics. Here we incorporate mosses as a new plant functional type into the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM 5.0), to develop a new model (TEM_Moss). The new model explicitly quantifies the interactions between vascular plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrients. Compared to the estimates using TEM 5.0, the new model estimates that the regional terrestrial soils currently store 132.7 Pg more C and will store 157.5 and 179.1 Pg more C under the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. Ensemble regional simulations forced with different parameters for the 21st century with TEM_Moss predict that the region will accumulate 161.1±142.1 Pg C under the RCP2.6 scenario and 186.7±166.1 Pg C under the RCP8.5 scenario over the century. Our study highlights the necessity of coupling moss into Earth system models to adequately quantify terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks in the Arctic.

Mapping the irrecoverable carbon in Earth’s ecosystems

Avoiding catastrophic climate change requires rapid decarbonization and improved ecosystem stewardship at a planetary scale. The carbon released through the burning of fossil fuels would take millennia to regenerate on Earth. Though the timeframe of carbon recovery for ecosystems such as peatlands, mangroves and old-growth forests is shorter (centuries), this timeframe still exceeds the time we have remaining to avoid the worst impacts of global warming. There are some natural places that we cannot afford to lose due to their irreplaceable carbon reserves. Here we map ‘irrecoverable carbon’ globally to identify ecosystem carbon that remains within human purview to manage and, if lost, could not be recovered by mid-century, by when we need to reach net-zero emissions to avoid the worst climate impacts. Since 2010, agriculture, logging and wildfire have caused emissions of at least 4.0 Gt of irrecoverable carbon. The world’s remaining 139.1 ± 443.6 Gt of irrecoverable carbon faces risks from land-use conversion and climate change. These risks can be reduced through proactive protection and adaptive management. Currently, 23.0% of irrecoverable carbon is within protected areas and 33.6% is managed by Indigenous peoples and local communities. Half of Earth’s irrecoverable carbon is concentrated on just 3.3% of its land, highlighting opportunities for targeted efforts to increase global climate security.