Assessing the long-run yield of a forest stand subject to the risk of fire

1985 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 680-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Reed ◽  
D. Errico
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Stand ◽  
Expectation Value ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Land Expectation Value ◽  
Optimal Rotation ◽  
Graphical Technique ◽  
Rotation Age ◽  
Theoretical Results

The problem of determining the effects of forest fire on stand yields is often neglected in forest yield analyses. Using previous theoretical results, "fire-adjusted, volume–rotation curves" can be developed which provide a graphical technique for determining optimal rotation age and long-run yield when the risk of fire is present. For white spruce of the northern interior of British Columbia it is shown that even modest rates of fire can result in very large reductions in long-run yield. Similar results are established for the effects of fire on land expectation value, which is dissipated very quickly under the risk of fire.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effects of risk on the economics of juvenile spacing and commercial thinning

1991 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 1390-1400 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Reed ◽  
Joseph Apaloo
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Expectation Value ◽  
Commercial Thinning ◽  
Land Expectation Value ◽  
Optimal Rotation ◽  
Rotation Age

The temporarily increased fire hazard that is believed to result from the process of thinning is included in a single-stand model for assessing the economic benefits of juvenile spacing. Formulas for the expected net present value and the land expectation value are given along with methods for determining the age of financial maturity and the optimal rotation age. A numerical example is given to illustrate the degree of loss due to the increased fire risk. The problem of commercial thinning when the risk of fire is present is addressed using continuous-time models. It is shown how, when the fire hazard is exogenous to the thinning activity, the problem reduces to one of deterministic optimal control with the discount rate adjusted upward by an amount equal to the fire hazard rate. In the case when the fire hazard increases whenever thinning is taking place, it is shown that in general the optimal thinning policy is qualitatively different from that which is optimal in the no-risk case and involves periods of thinning at the maximum rate interspersed with periods of no thinning activity.

scholarly journals The Optimal Forest Management of an Even-Aged Stand: The Biological Rotation versus the Land Expectation Value

EDIS ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (6) ◽  
pp. 4
Author(s):  
Andres Susaeta ◽  
Chris Demers
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Forest Resources ◽  
Forest Stands ◽  
Forest Landowners ◽  
Expectation Value ◽  
Fact Sheet ◽  
Land Expectation Value ◽  
Optimal Rotation ◽  
Rotation Age

This 4-page fact sheet written by Andres Susaeta and Chris Demers and published by the UF/IFAS School of Forest Resources and Conservation provides a guide for forest landowners, managers, and stakeholders in conducting a valuation of timber investments. It reviews and provides examples of two different approaches for determining the optimal rotation age of even-aged forest stands. These methods can help forest landowners and managers in making forestry investment decisions. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fr424

scholarly journals Financial analysis of Chir pine plantations for carbon offsets, timber and resin in Nepal

2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 3-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
B KC ◽  
G. A. Stainback
Keyword(s):  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Pine Plantations ◽  
Pinus Roxburghii ◽  
Expectation Value ◽  
Land Expectation Value ◽  
Optimal Rotation ◽  
Carbon Offset ◽  
Rotation Age ◽  
Chir Pine ◽  
Substantial Change

A financial analysis was done for Chir pine (Pinus roxburghii) plantations that produce carbon offset payments, timber and resin in a community forest context in Nepal. Results indicate that the inclusion of carbon offset payments increases rotation age and land expectation value. The optimal rotation age is approximately 35 years without including carbon offset payments, while the rotation age can increase beyond 75 years with the inclusion of carbon offset payments. The substantial change in optimal rotation age also suggests that carbon offset payments will likely change the product mix produced from Chir pine plantations. Likewise, land expectation value increases significantly with carbon offset payments indicating that local communities could benefit from such payments. The results also indicate that different assumptions about the quantity of long term carbon storage (i.e. pickling rate) have a significant impact on rotation age and land expectation value.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/banko.v22i2.9193Banko Janakari: A Journal of Forestry Information for NepalVol. 22, No. 2, 2012 NovemberPage: 3-10Uploaded date: 12/1/2013 

scholarly journals What is the Value of an Existing Forest Stand?

EDIS ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (6) ◽  
pp. 3
Author(s):  
Andres Susaeta ◽  
Chris Demers
Keyword(s):  
Forest Resources ◽  
Forest Stand ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Expectation Value ◽  
Fact Sheet ◽  
Land Expectation Value ◽  
Main Indicator ◽  
Bare Land ◽  
Value Of Cash

Traditionally, the land expectation value (LEV) formula, the present value of perpetual cash inflows of timber revenues minus the present value of cash outflows of costs, has been employed as the main indicator of the value of a forest investment. However, when a forest stand is already established, the LEV approach is incomplete because it applies only to bare land. Thus, it is necessary to determine the value of a property with an existing forest stand. This 3-page fact sheet written by Andres Susaeta and Chris Demers and published by the UF/IFAS School of Forest Resources and Conservation provides the formula to determine the value of an already established forest stand at any stage of its development. This approach, known as the forest value formula, includes the value of the timber and the land. It can be used to compare the value of the stand when it is immediately harvested or when it is economically immature. http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fr423

Economic Aspects of the Forest Regeneration Delay Decision

1985 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Straka ◽  
James E. Hotvedt
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Forest Regeneration ◽  
Forest Stand ◽  
Economic Aspects ◽  
Expectation Value ◽  
Land Expectation Value ◽  
Bare Land ◽  
Bare Land Value ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Delay Decision

Abstract Regeneration lag, the cost resulting from a delay in reestablishment of a forest stand, represents an important opportunity cost̶the cost of the foregone opportunity to grow timber over the period of the delay. The land expectation value (Le) criterion is used to evaluate the costs associated with one-time-only and perpetual lags. Significant decreases in wealth, or bare land value, were found using a simplified example with real-world cost and price data. Changes in required land bases resulting from regeneration delays were also reviewed. The additional land requirements resulting from scheduled delays in regeneration can be costly.

scholarly journals VOLUMETRIC AND ECONOMIC OPTIMAL ROTATIONS FOR FIREWOOD PRODUCTION OF Eucalyptus urophylla IN IPAMERI, STATE OF GOIAS

FLORESTA ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
José Imaña-Encinas ◽  
Otacílio Antunes Santana ◽  
Christian Rainier Imaña
Keyword(s):  
Eucalyptus Urophylla ◽  
Sampled Data ◽  
Volume Data ◽  
Annual Increment ◽  
Value Maximization ◽  
Economic Production ◽  
Land Expectation Value ◽  
Optimal Rotation ◽  
Optimal Harvest ◽  
Rotation Age

This work analyzes the volumetric and economic production of Eucalyptus urophylla S. T. Blake stands oriented to firewood production in a three-years cutting cycle, in the region of Ipameri, State of Goias. 1,545 trees were measured and rigorously scaled. The volume data obtained was adjusted by Schumacher log-reciprocal model. The volumetrically optimal rotation was defined by the Mean Annual Increment and Land Expectation Value maximization criteria. The optimal rotation ages were between 5 and 6 years, and the economically optimal rotations were around 3 years of age. In relation to the sampled data, it may be inferred that the optimal harvest age should be at age 4.Keywords: Biological rotation age; increments; forest management. ResumoRotações volumétrica e econômica ótimas para produção de lenha de Eucalyptus urophylla em Ipameri, estado de Goiás. Este trabalho analisa a produção volumétrica e econômica de talhões de Eucalyptus urophylla S. T. Blake destinados à produção de lenha em ciclos de corte de três anos, na região de Ipameri, Goiás. Foram medidas e posteriormente cubadas rigorosamente 1.545 árvores. Os volumes obtidos foram ajustados ao modelo log recíproco de Schumacher. Obteve-se a otimização da rotação volumétrica pela maximização do incremento médio anual e do valor esperado da terra. As rotações volumetricamente ótimas identificaram a idade entre 5 e 6 anos, e as rotações economicamente ótimas ficaram em torno de três anos de idade. Com base nos dados coletados, se infere que a rotação ótima de corte deveria ficar na idade de 4 anos.Palavras-chave: Idade de corte; incrementos; manejo florestal.

The optimal rotation of a flammable forest stand

1980 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. L. Martell
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Jack Pine ◽  
Forest Stand ◽  
Timber Production ◽  
Forest Stands ◽  
Rotation Interval ◽  
Optimal Rotation

The author describes a stochastic model of forest stand rotation which can be used to determine the optimal planned rotation interval for flammable forest stands. The model can also be used to estimate the value of fire management activities in terms of the potential enhanced value of timber production. The use of the model is illustrated by applying it to a simplified case of jack pine (Pinusbanksiana, Lamb.) management.

A 1000-year record of forest fire, drought and lake-level change in southeastern British Columbia, Canada

The Holocene ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 751-761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas J. Hallett ◽  
Rolf W. Mathewes ◽  
Robert C. Walker
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
Lake Level Change ◽  
Level Change
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