TOURISM AND GROWTH IN SINGAPORE: NEW EXTENSION FROM BOUNDS TEST TO LEVEL RELATIONSHIPS AND CONDITIONAL GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (03) ◽  
pp. 441-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
SALIH TURAN KATIRCIOǦLU
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Equilibrium Level ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper empirically investigates the tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis in the case of Singapore by employing the bounds test to cointegration, error correction models and Granger causality tests using annual data from 1960 to 2007. Results confirm the existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between international tourism and economic growth in the case of Singapore; real income growth converges to its long-term equilibrium level significantly by 51.4% in the TLG model. The major finding of this study is that the TLG hypothesis is confirmed for the Singaporean economy in the long-term as a result of conditional Granger causality tests.

THE LINKAGE BETWEEN EXPORT AND INCOME: FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM BANGLADESH

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (01) ◽  
pp. 79-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
RUHUL A. SALIM ◽  
MOHAMMAD A. HOSSAIN
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Expansion ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This article empirically re-examines the export-led growth hypothesis in the context of Bangladesh using the quarterly data from 1973:1 to 2005:4. The standard time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and Granger causality tests within the error correction modelling (ECM) are used for this purpose. The results from cointegration analysis suggest that there is stable long-run relationship between exports and income and the results from Granger causality test based on the ECM shows unidirectional causal relationship between exports and income. Thus, these results validate the country's export expansion programs to achieve long-run income growth.

Role of ICT And Tourism in Economic Growth of India

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Surender Kumar ◽  
Karuna Chauhan ◽  
Abhay Kumar Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Relationship Of

Tourism is being seen as an opportunity for the economic growth of developing economies as its demand is still growing. Over the years, tourism mediation has experienced major changes, including the arrival of the Internet and the application of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). This paper will investigates the relationship of ICT, tourism and growth of India by employing the cointegration, error correction models and Granger causality tests using annual data for last two decades. Major focus is to test the existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between international tourism, ICT and economic growth. In the Indian economy, it seems that tourism is led by economic growth and we are not able transform our strength in ICT to the expected level. In this study, we have made our efforts to highlight the ability of tourism, which can be made as leading factor to influence GDP through optimum use of ICT.

Revisiting the nexus between financial development, FDI, and growth: New evidence from second generation econometric procedures in the Turkish context

2014 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasan Güngör ◽  
Salih Katircioglu ◽  
Mehmet Mercan
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Second Generation ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Multiple Structural Breaks ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

This study investigates the impact of the selected financial development proxies and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the growth in the case of Turkey, using annual data for the 1960–2011 period. The second-generation econometric procedure has been applied for the first time to the Turkish data with this respect. Unit root tests by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009) assume that real income, financial development proxies, and FDI are non-stationary at levels, but become stationary at first differences through multiple structural breaks. Cointegration results by Maki (2012) confirm the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between real income growth, financial development, and FDI, again through multiple structural breaks. Finally, this paper confirms that financial development and FDI are long-term drivers of real income, which enable it to react to its long-term path significantly.

scholarly journals High frequency multiscale relationships among major cryptocurrencies: portfolio management implications

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Walid Mensi ◽  
Mobeen Ur Rehman ◽  
Muhammad Shafiullah ◽  
Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee ◽  
Ahmet Sensoy
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

AbstractThis paper examines the high frequency multiscale relationships and nonlinear multiscale causality between Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero, Dash, Ripple, and Litecoin. We apply nonlinear Granger causality and rolling window wavelet correlation (RWCC) to 15 min—data. Empirical RWCC results indicate mostly positive co-movements and long-term memory between the cryptocurrencies, especially between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero. The nonlinear Granger causality tests reveal dual causation between most of the cryptocurrency pairs. We advance evidence to improve portfolio risk assessment, and hedging strategies.

scholarly journals Infrastructure Investment as a Panacea for Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Granger Causality Tests Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Cyprian Clement Abur
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

This paper employed Granger causality tests amid infrastructure spending, economic growth, and employment in Nigeria for the period 1960-2017 using vector autoregression (VAR) model. The result showed a strong causality between infrastructure investment and economic growth in Nigeria. Findings of the study shows a strong underlying relationship between e infrastructure investment and job creation. Economic growth seems to be the key drivers of government jobs and that the private sector jobs drives growth, however, public jobs have not been able to translates into additional jobs in the economy. The bounds test results specify the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship between infrastructure investment, economic growth, job creation and output thereby providing a theoretical underpinning for the empirical results.

scholarly journals Do Exports lead Economic Output in Five Asian Countries? A Cointegration and Granger Causality Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Jiayi Huang ◽  
Miguel D. Ramirez
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

This paper examines the relationship between exports and economic output for five major Asian economies using annual data in an expanded data set and employing unit root and cointegration analysis. It employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) that treats all variables in the modified production function as potentially endogenous and then determines via weak exogeneity tests whether some of the key variables can be treated as exogenous (omitted from the system). Johansen cointegration tests find a positive long-run relationship between exports and economic output for the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Cointegration tests find a negative long-run relationship between exports and economic output for India. The Block Granger causality tests and impulse response functions for the Philippines and Singapore find stronger causality from exports to economic output rather than the reverse. Granger causality tests in level form also find significant causality from exports to economic output. No causality exists between exports and economic output in the case of India. Exports seem to promote economic growth in three of the four countries that have cointegrated data, which supports the exports-led growth hypothesis found in some of the extant literature. The paper does not find cointegration for China because the variables are integrated of different orders from I(0) to I(2). 

scholarly journals Determinants of Bank Lending in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 378-398
Author(s):  
Adeola Y. Oyebowale
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact

The willingness of commercial banks to provide loans is determined by various factors. In this regard, this paper provides empirical evidence on determinants of bank lending in Nigeria. The parsimonious model of this study investigates the impact of growth in loan-to-deposit ratio, growth in inflation, growth in broad money, and growth in bank capital on growth in bank lending using annual data from 1961 to 2016. This study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship and direction of causality among the variables, respectively. The Granger causality tests show that growth in broad money Granger-causes growth in bank lending, while there is no causality from other explanatory variables to bank lending in Nigeria. Also, this study shows that growth in bank lending Granger-causes growth in loan-to-deposit ratio and growth in inflation in Nigeria. Thus, this paper argues that commercial banks in Nigeria exhibit stern concern for their liquidity and capital adequacy positions while acting as financial intermediaries. Additionally, this paper argues that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) possesses “paper-based” independence.

Do More Tourists Lead to Higher Levels of Consumption?

1998 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 233-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Y.C. Tse
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

It is argued that attracting more tourists will stimulate domestic consumption. This paper, using Granger causality tests fitted to data from Hong Kong, shows that a long-term causal relationship between the number of tourists and subsequent private domestic consumption is not supported. Thus, tourist flows may have very little effect on domestic consumption.

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