The models discussed in the last chapter are intriguing, but present a number of problems. In particular, most of the results about them come from computer simulations, and little is known analytically about their properties. Results such as the power-law distribution of extinction sizes and the system's evolution to the "edge of chaos" are only as accurate as the simulations in which they are observed. Moreover, it is not even clear what the mechanisms responsible for these results are, beyond the rather general arguments that we have already given. In order to address these shortcomings, Bak and Sneppen (1993; Sneppen et al. 1995; Sneppen 1995; Bak 1996) have taken Kauffman's ideas, with some modification, and used them to create a considerably simpler model of large-scale coevolution which also shows a power-law distribution of avalanche sizes and which is simple enough that its properties can, to some extent, be understood analytically. Although the model does not directly address the question of extinction, a number of authors have interpreted it, using arguments similar to those of section 1.2.2.5, as a possible model for extinction by biotic causes. The Bak-Sneppen model is one of a class of models that show "self-organized criticality," which means that regardless of the state in which they start, they always tune themselves to a critical point of the type discussed in section 2.4, where power-law behavior is seen. We describe self-organized criticality in more detail in section 3.2. First, however, we describe the Bak-Sneppen model itself. In the model of Bak and Sneppen there are no explicit fitness landscapes, as there are in NK models. Instead the model attempts to mimic the effects of landscapes in terms of "fitness barriers." Consider figure 3.1, which is a toy representation of a fitness landscape in which there is only one dimension in the genotype (or phenotype) space. If the mutation rate is low compared with the time scale on which selection takes place (as Kauffman assumed), then a population will spend most of its time localized around a peak in the landscape (labeled P in the figure).
The origin of power-law distributions in self-organized criticality
