Probabilistic Network Approach to Decision-Making

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (02) ◽  
pp. 1550012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grégoire Nicolis ◽  
Stamatios C. Nicolis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Network Approach ◽  
Markov Type ◽  
Probabilistic Network

A probabilistic approach to decision-making is developed in which the states of the underlying stochastic process, assumed to be of the Markov type, represent the competing options. The principal parameters determining the dominance of a particular option versus the others are identified and the transduction of information associated to the transitions between states is quantified using a set of entropy-like quantities.

Using Network Analysis for Understanding How Decisions are Made

2011 ◽  
pp. 950-957
Author(s):  
Frédéric Adam
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Social Network ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Network Approach ◽  
Organizational Decision Making ◽  
Traditional Research ◽  
The Social ◽  
High Level

Network analysis, a body of research that concentrates on the social networks that connect actors in society, has been found to have many applications in areas where researchers struggle to understand the complex workings of organisations (Nohria, 1992). Social network analysis (SNA) acknowledges that individuals are characterised just as much by their relationships with one another (which is often neglected in traditional research) as by their specific attributes (Knoke & Kuklinski, 1982) and that, beyond individuals, society itself is made of networks (Kilduff & Tsai, 2003). It is the study of the relationships between actors and between clusters of actors in organisations and in society that has been labeled network analysis. These high level observations about network analysis indicate that this orientation has great potential for the study of how managers, groups of managers, and organisations make decisions, following processes that unfold over long periods of time and that are sometimes very hard to fully comprehend without reference to a network approach. This article proposes to investigate the potential application of network analysis to the study of individual and organizational decision making and to leverage its strengths for the design and development of better decision aids.

scholarly journals An Efficient Probabilistic Approach Based on Area Grey Incidence Decision Making for Optimal Distributed Generation Planning

IEEE Access ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 93175-93186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawei Huang ◽  
Hongwei Li ◽  
Guowei Cai ◽  
Nantian Huang ◽  
Na Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Distributed Generation ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Generation Planning

Bounded Rationality in Budgetary Research

1980 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 354-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
John F. Padgett
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Normal Result ◽  
Budget Planning ◽  
Process Framework ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
Empirical Analyses

Two bounded rationality theories of federal budgetary decision making are operationalized and tested within a stochastic process framework. Empirical analyses of Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson domestic budget data, compiled from internal Office of Management and Budget planning documents, support the theory of serial judgment over the theory of incrementalism proposed by Davis, Dempster and Wildavsky. The new theory highlights both the structure of ordered search through a limited number of discrete alternatives and the importance of informal judgmental evaluations. Serial judgment theory predicts not only that most programs most of the time will receive allocations which are only marginally different from the historical base, but also that occasional radical and even “catastrophic” changes are the normal result of routine federal budgetary decision making. The methodological limitations of linear regression techniques in explanatory budgetary research are also discussed.

scholarly journals A skills network approach to physicians’ competence in shared decision making

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1466-1476
Author(s):  
Levente Kriston ◽  
Pola Hahlweg ◽  
Martin Härter ◽  
Isabelle Scholl
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Shared Decision Making ◽  
Shared Decision ◽  
Network Approach

scholarly journals Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization of Power Generation Assets

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3043
Author(s):  
Barbara Glensk ◽  
Reinhard Madlener
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Membership Functions ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Selection Models ◽  
Fuzzy Portfolio Selection ◽  
Aspiration Levels

Fuzzy theory is proposed as an alternative to the probabilistic approach for assessing portfolios of power plants, in order to capture the complex reality of decision-making processes. This paper presents different fuzzy portfolio selection models, where the rate of returns as well as the investor’s aspiration levels of portfolio return and risk are regarded as fuzzy variables. Furthermore, portfolio risk is defined as a downside risk, which is why a semi-mean-absolute deviation portfolio selection model is introduced. Finally, as an illustration, the models presented are applied to a selection of power generation mixes. The efficient portfolio results show that the fuzzy portfolio selection models with different definitions of membership functions as well as the semi-mean-absolute deviation model perform better than the standard mean-variance approach. Moreover, introducing membership functions for the description of investors’ aspiration levels for the expected return and risk shows how the knowledge of experts, and investors’ subjective opinions, can be better integrated in the decision-making process than with probabilistic approaches.

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