scholarly journals The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports in South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 06 (01) ◽  
pp. 1550004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Goodness C. Aye ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Prudence S. Moyo ◽  
Nehrunaman Pillay
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Exchange Rate Uncertainty ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Structural Vector

This paper examines the impact of real effective exchange rate uncertainty (REER) on aggregate exports of South Africa for the period 1986Q4–2013Q2. Using a bivariate framework where the structural vector autoregression (VAR) is modified to accommodate bivariate GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) errors, we find that exchange rate uncertainty has a significant and negative effect on exports. Comparing the response of exports to a shock in exchange rate from a model that includes the REER uncertainty with results from a model that restricts the coefficient of the exchange rate uncertainty to zero, we find that the response is more pronounced in the former model. Furthermore, real exports respond asymmetrically to negative and positive shocks of REER of the same size.

scholarly journals Do the Pandemic of COVID- 19 Affect Cosmetic Export of Thailand?

2021 ◽  
pp. 115-121
Author(s):  
Sauwaluck Koojaroenprasit
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Online Platform ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Media Platform ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this research was to find the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the cosmetic export of Thailand. The multiple linear regression was employed. The monthly data period of study was from January 2010 to March 2021. The result showed that exchange rate, inflation, GDP growth rate, average wage, real effective exchange rate, business sentimental index, and the pandemic of COVID-19 affected the cosmetic export of Thailand. The result showed that pandemic of COVID-19 had a negative effect on the value of cosmetic export. Therefore, the cosmetics industry must adapt to handle with that situation. Though people work less on the workplace and using more online platform for working the cosmetics still be one of the significant things to make people confidential for working in term of social media platform or online platform that they still need to communicate with others.

scholarly journals Cointegration Analysis of Exchange Rate Volatility and Agricultural Exports in Turkey: an Ardl Approch

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1180-1185
Author(s):  
Turgut Orman ◽  
İlkay Dellal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to reveal the impact of exchange rate volatility on agricultural exports of Turkey by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. While quarterly time series data covering period of 2001: Q1 to 2018: Q4 were used to carry out analyses, Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (1.1) is used to acquire exchange rate volatility series. The research findings showed that agricultural export is cointegrated with exchange rate volatility, producer price index and real effective exchange rate. Furthermore, our findings indicate that increases in real effective exchange rate have a statistically significant positive influence on the export volume whereas exchange rate volatility has negative impact on it.

Government Spending Shocks and External Competitiveness: Evidence from South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 2050013
Author(s):  
Naser Yenus Nuru
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Spending Shocks ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This study examines the effects of government spending shocks on real effective exchange rate in South Africa over the period 1970Q1–2019Q2. In doing so, a version of vector autoregressive impulse response model developed by Jordà is employed and the shocks are identified recursively. The impulse responses show that government spending shock has a significant appreciation effect on real effective exchange rate and its effect depends on the nature of the fiscal shock. Although the effect of government spending on real effective exchange rate does not depend on the sign of the shock, it varies over economic cycle.

Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade-in

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 56-72
Author(s):  
Kanu Success Ikechi ◽  
Nwadiubu Anthony
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Trading Activities ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatilities on international trade in Nigeria. The research is carried under the assumption that exchange rate volatilities are deemed to impact on the volume of export and import trading activities. The study made use of Secondary data from 1996 to 2018. Econometric tools were used to ascertain relationships. The paper established a mixed result between the variables under review. While some of the tests did not provide adequate and predictive information on the relationship between exports, imports and real effective exchange rate, others did. The VAR model estimates indicate an inverse relationship between Export, Import and REER in current periods. A unit increase in export and import in a particular year leads to about 0.9% and 0.4% decrease in REER respectively. Variance decomposition analysis suggests that the shocks partially explain fluctuations in REER, as well as exports and imports. The Impulse response analysis indicates a negative association between export and real effective exchange rate while it was majorly positive for imports throughout the ten periods. The causal effect reveals that import causes exports but that exports do not granger cause imports. The ARCH modelling approach suggests the existence of a first-order Arch effect and a significant GARCH term. Though the Coefficient of GARCH in a mean term is negative; it produced a singular covariance which by itself is not unique. Results show evidence of volatility of REER clustering on import and export trading activities in Nigeria. This could have serious implications for growth in Nigeria, as a reduction in the growth of exports could reduce the foreign exchange earnings available for the financing of developmental projects. At the same time, a decline in imports could affect domestic production and consumption. It could also impinge negatively on the balance of payment positions for Nigeria. In line with these observations, monetary and fiscal interventions are required to mitigate the adverse effects since financial shocks often exacerbate exchange rate volatilities.

scholarly journals Determinants of Non-Performing Loan in Nepalese Commercial Banks

2017 ◽  
pp. 22-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seema Bhattarai
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The non-performing loans (NPL) of financial institutions are considered as a significant issue in the context of Nepal for last few decades. The paper aims to identify the impact of macroeconomic variables (GDP, Inflation, and Real Effective Exchange Rate) and bank specific variables (size, change in loan, real lending rate of interest, and share of loan to total assets) on the non-performing loan of the commercial banks in Nepal. The study was conducted mainly with secondary sources. The data were collected for 26 commercial banks covering the period of 2002-2012 with 227 observations. The study found that macroeconomic variables such as the real effective exchange rate have significantly negative impact on non-performing loan. The impact of GDP growth rate was found to be insignificant in this study. One year lagged inflation rate has significant positive impact on non-performing loan. The banks which charge relatively higher real interest rate have higher non-performing loan, which is consistent with the findings of previous studies. The ownership dummy has positive coefficient and significant at one percent level showing that if the bank is government owned the non-performing loan would be higher than that of the private owned banks. As well, more lending in the previous years and current year reduces the non-performing loan since the coefficient of change in loan in current and previous years have negative coefficient and significant at one percent level.Economic Journal of Development Issues Vol. 19 & 20 No. 1-2 (2015) Combined Issue, Page: 22-38

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