The Effects of Market and Macroeconomic Uncertainties on Corporate Investment Decisions in Nigeria

In this paper, the effect of market and macroeconomic uncertainties on corporate investment decisions was examined using the real option investment theory. Two types of uncertainties were investigated: macroeconomic uncertainties (exchange, interest and inflation rates) and market uncertainty (stock market volatility) while corporate investments were measured as the sum of the changes in capital stock and depreciation. Data were obtained for the period 2005-2019 and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) estimation technique was employed. The results showed a significant difference between the effects of macroeconomic and market uncertainties on corporate investment decisions. We found that macroeconomic uncertainty of inflation rate has positive relationship with corporate investments, with a coefficient of 0.35071, and interest rate uncertainty (0.15567) and exchange rate uncertainty (-0.07852) were also statistically significant, whereas the linear market uncertainty has a negative value of -0.00173 and the quadratic market uncertainty (0.00520) was statistically insignificant. Therefore, interest rate volatility and inflation expectations are not factors constraining investment growth; however, exchange rate uncertainty exerts a substantial negative influence on corporate investment in Nigeria. Given the findings, the study recommends, among others, an appropriate and stable exchange rate policy that makes for easy business planning and forecasting by rational investors. To achieve a stable exchange rate that would bring about increased investment, the government should implement efficient macroeconomic policies, such as those that minimize the structural rigidities in the economy.

Effects of Export Orientation, Exchange Rates and Leverage on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Pakistan

This article empirically scrutinizes the effect of exchange rate changes, exchange rate uncertainty and firm leverage on firm-level productivity growth. It also examines the differential effects of these variables, conditional on the levels of exports. Finally, it investigates whether a firm’s heterogeneity in terms of its share of exports in total sales matters in determining the response of a firm’s productivity growth to these variables. The empirical analysis is based on an unbalanced panel data set with annual observations of 222 exporting firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange over the 2009–2017 period. We find that both exchange rate changes and exchange rate uncertainty have significant, negative effects on the firm’s productivity growth, and exporting further makes intense these effects. Yet, we show that export activities are positively related to firms’ productivity growth. We also reveal that there is a significant heterogeneity in the effects of exchange rate changes, its uncertainty and leverage, which is attributed to export intensity. Specifically, we observe that the effects are more prominent in firms that export more shares of their output to foreign markets.

The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate uncertainty on employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector over the period 1985Q1–2019Q2.Design/methodology/approachJorda’s (2005) local projection method is employed and following Koop et al. (1996); generalized impulse response functions are generated to see the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector.FindingsThe results show that exchange rate uncertainty affects negatively and significantly employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector. Employment also responds negatively and significantly to export shock. Inflation and output shocks, however, positively and significantly affect employment on impact. Asymmetric responses of employment to exchange rate uncertainty are also found in this study. While high exchange rate uncertainty leads to a reduction in employment, low exchange rate uncertainty brings an increase in employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector.Originality/valueThis research adds to the scarce empirical literature on the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector by incorporating mainly non-linearities into the model.

Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Exchange Rate Uncertain

Macroeconomic convergence is critical for member states to achieve the level of harmonization required for establishing a stable and resilient monetary union. The East African Community (EAC) member states, therefore, established set targets for macroeconomic convergence, intending to eliminate exchange rate uncertainty within the bloc and reduce the costs of the monetary union. However, recent empirical studies indicate that the rate of convergence of the member states to the set macroeconomic targets has been very slow, resulting in high exchange rate uncertainty within the region. It is against this backdrop that this research was conceptualized to examine the influence of convergence in macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate uncertainty of EAC states using secondary panel data. The study made use of standard deviation and the Levin Lin Chu (LLC) test to determine convergence and unit root respectively. The panel ordinary least squares (OLS) regression findings showed that all the explanatory variables had a negatively significant effect on exchange rate uncertainty. This implies that convergence in macroeconomic variables among the member countries slows exchange rate uncertainty. Thus, policy should be made towards controlling this negative effect resulting from macroeconomic variables as East Africa bids for monetary union.

Exchange Rate Uncertainty Effects on Domestic Investment in South Africa

The main goal of this study is to examine the effect of real effective exchange rate uncertainty on domestic investment for the South African economy over the sample period 1985Q1–2019Q2. To address this objective, Jordà’s (2005) local projection method is employed in this study. The generalised impulse response functions indicate that domestic investment decreases between the second and seventh quarters in response to one standard deviation shock in exchange rate uncertainty. Furthermore, high exchange rate uncertainty affects domestic investment negatively while low exchange rate uncertainty affects domestic investment positively. In other words, domestic investment declines due to a rise in exchange rate uncertainty while a drop in exchange rate uncertainty enhances domestic investment. Regarding the effects of control variables, output and export influences domestic investment positively and significantly. Inflation, however, has a negative and significant effect on domestic investment. Lastly, the Diks–Panchenko nonlinear Granger’s causality confirms bidirectional causality between exchange rate uncertainty and domestic investment. JEL Classification: C32, E22, F31, F41