economic cycle
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2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to the clarification of whether the dependence and causality between oil and the macrofundamentals change across different quantiles of the distribution function. Design/methodology/approach Within the context of an asymmetric quantile approach, we drop the assumption that variables operate at the upper tails of the distribution in the way that they operate at the mean. Findings Our innovative approach indicates that the response of oil prices not only differs according to the underlying source of the variables shock but also differs across the quantiles. Originality/value Although a number of recent studies are closely related to our present research, our novel findings offer some important insights that foreshadow the empirical results. The current research addresses to answer the following questions, in sequence: (i) Is there any extreme value dependence between the crude oil and macroeconomic variables? If yes, (ii) is the dependence symmetric or asymmetric? Finally, (iii) can this dependence be driven by the phases of the economic cycle?


Author(s):  
Natalia Sánchez Martín ◽  
Carmelo García-Perez

AbstractIntergenerational income mobility has attracted the interest of many economists for—among other reasons—its role as a mechanism for reducing inequalities and achieving equal opportunities. In this paper, we analyse the intergenerational mobility of income in Spain in the years 2005 and 2011, located at different phases of the economic cycle. We use proxy variables (the economic situation of the household during the adolescence of the informant and the educational level achieved by parents) to study intergenerational income mobility, because there are not extant surveys with income information from parents and their descendants when they are part of a different household. With these variables, we try to verify the existence and degree of mobility by analysing different methodologies. The results suggest the existence of mobility in the two studied years, although a trend towards a reduction in intergenerational mobility is confirmed, already detected by other authors.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Zhang

On most occasions, economic development is embodied with periodic characteristics. Comprehensive understanding of the economic cycle is of great significance to guiding the formulation of macroeconomic policies and maintaining stable economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, Tengzhou's economy has maintained a momentum of rapid growth, which, however, is characterized by obvious periodic fluctuations. This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the characteristics and causes of economic periodic fluctuation in Tengzhou, in order to have a comprehensive understanding of the economic cycle, and the economic law is adopted to take corresponding economic growth measures in different periods of economic development, thus achieving high-quality economic development. In this paper, the study of county economic cycle is not subject to economic theory, rather the study is conducted with a large number of historical background and local economic development characteristics. The economy of Tengzhou City, since the reform and opening up, is divided into five cycles. The conclusion is drawn that the county economic cycle is affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, industrial structure adjustment, investment and consumption fluctuations and other factors. We put forward targeted suggestions on using the economic cycle to promote high-quality economic development.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-35

Fiscal policymaking of the Member States aims to follow fiscal rules through the economic cycle that ensure macroeconomic sustainability in the European Union (EU). After the 2008 global crisis, the Stability and Growth Pact introduced the enhanced supranational fiscal rules, setting additional boundaries to fiscal deficits and government debt. The new ceiling on the structural deficit in public finance laws of Member States has served to protect creditworthiness. The COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a temporary suspension of the fiscal rules, clearly indicates that the key challenges are to implement a countercyclical policy during upturns, building buffers for bad days. Under the Next Generation Europe’s initiative the European Commission (EC) will borrow up to €750 billion and distribute it over 2021-2024 to Member States (European Commission, 2020a). Raising funds in the EU budget and repayment of the EC debt may lead to amendments to the design and application of the EU fiscal rules. This paper lays out the objectives of the EU current fiscal framework and its main pillars, discusses how the EC new financial instruments for the period 2021-2027 will be accounted for in the Member States’ fiscal framework, and what are its possible changes and challenges after Covid-19 and Brexit.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Torluccio ◽  
◽  
Paolo Palliola ◽  
Paola Brighi ◽  
Lorenzo Dal Maso ◽  
...  

Under IFRS9, Financial Institutions are required to implement impairment frameworks to determine the expected losses on their credit portfolio taking into account the current (so called “point in time”) and the prospective (so called “forward looking”) economic cycle. The Covid-19 pandemic, which began in early 2020, has posed significant challenges for Financial Institutions in their ability to manage credit risk. Despite numerous guidelines given by regulators, estimating IFRS9 expected loss continues to be a considerable challenge. The challenge partly stems from the relationship between macro-economic scenarios and credit losses, the treatment of moratoriums inside the historical series for development and calibration of IFRS9 risk parameters, and the management of support measures defined at National and European levels (e.g. Next Generation EU) for the forward looking estimations.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
THEODORE MODIS

In an effort to evidence the Kondratieff cycle more scientifically than the way economists do, physical variables are studied rather than monetary indicators. Previously published graphs are reproduced and updated here with recent data. A cyclical rather regular variation of energy consumption reveals a 56-year cycle. A dozen human endeavors/phenomena, such as bank failures, homicides, hurricanes, feminism, and sunspot activity are shown to resonate with this cycle. Possible explanations for this phenomenon may have to do with a climatic variation or with the length of time any individual actively influences the environment. There is some evidence that the cycle may be getting shorter in amplitude and duration in recent years. All quantitative confidence levels involved in these observations are poor by scientific standards and permit critics to question the very existence of this phenomenon.


2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-237
Author(s):  
Van Dan Dang

The paper empirically examines bank liquidity hoarding fluctuations over the economic cycle and provides further evidence on the heterogeneous cyclicality of bank liquidity hoarding across different banks in Vietnam for the period 2007–2019. Using both static panel models with the fixed-effects regression using corrected Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and dynamic panel models with the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator, we find that the liquidity hoarding of banks is procyclical. Concretely bank liquidity hoarding on- and off-balance sheets tends to increase during economic upturns and decrease during economic downturns. Our additional analysis yields a consistent pattern that financially weaker banks are more procyclical than their stronger counterparts. During booms and busts, the behaviour of hoarding liquidity is more pronounced for banks with smaller sizes, less capital, more risk, and less profit. This heterogeneity also contributes to understanding the core mechanism behind our main findings, further confirming the precautionary motive of bank liquidity hoarding.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 13346
Author(s):  
Álvaro Costa ◽  
Carlos Oliveira Cruz ◽  
Joaquim Miranda Sarmento ◽  
Vitor Faria Sousa

The discussion over public vs. private management in the operation of public transport has been on the research agenda for the past decade. Several studies have analyzed the benefits of private management; however, no study has analyzed the effects of the management model while controlling for other external factors such as economic crises and political factors. This study intends to focus on the impact of the ownership model (public vs. private) of urban rail firms on their efficiency, while expanding the existing literature by controlling for economic and political factors. The methodology consisted of the calculation of DEA scores and subsequent use of regression analysis to identify the main determinants. We used a data set of four Portuguese rail firms during the period 2009–2018 along with five distinct efficiency scores. The results show that privately managed firms tend to be more efficient, but with distinct behavior depending on the economic cycle. In periods of growing GDP, private firms lose their potential superiority over public firms. The results also show that election years and unemployment rate also play a role in understanding the efficiency scores of these firms.


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