THE ECONOMY-WIDE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE NILE BASIN: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 08 (01) ◽  
pp. 1750004 ◽  
Author(s):  
TEWODROS NEGASH KAHSAY ◽  
ONNO KUIK ◽  
ROY BROUWER ◽  
PIETER VAN DER ZAAG
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Irrigation Development ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to evaluate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under the IPCC’s A2 and B1 scenarios and existing irrigation development plans in the Nile basin. The study reveals that climate change adversely affects mainly downstream Egypt and to a lesser extent Sudan, while it results in a limited impact in the upstream countries Ethiopia and the Equatorial Lakes region, where irrigated agriculture is still limited. The economic consequences for Egypt are especially substantial if the river basin countries pursue a unilateral irrigation development strategy. In order to prevent water use conflicts and ease water scarcity conditions, a cooperative water development strategy is needed as well as economic diversification in favor of less water-intensive sectors, combined with investments in water-saving infrastructure and improved irrigation efficiency.

scholarly journals COSTS AND BENEFITS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SWITZERLAND

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950005 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANK VÖHRINGER ◽  
MARC VIELLE ◽  
PHILIPPE THALMANN ◽  
ANITA FREHNER ◽  
WOLFGANG KNOKE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Summer Temperatures ◽  
Data Constraints

Understanding the economic magnitude of climate change (CC) impacts is a prerequisite for developing adequate adaptation strategies. In Switzerland, despite new climate scenarios and impact studies, only few impacts have been monetized. Our objective is to assess costs and opportunities of CC for Switzerland by 2060, while enhancing the assessment methods. Using inputs from bottom-up impact studies, we simulate the economic consequences of climate scenarios in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. We cover health, buildings/infrastructure, energy, water, agriculture, tourism, the spill-overs to other sectors, and international effects. Due to data constraints, significant impacts have not been quantified, e.g., for heat waves and droughts more extreme than the 2060 average climate. For the considered impacts, welfare decreases by 0.37% to 1.37% in 2060 relative to a reference without CC. Higher summer temperatures increase mortality and decrease productivity. Contrariwise, tourism benefits from extended summer seasons. Regarding energy, increased demand for cooling is overcompensated by savings in heating.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture in Southern Portugal

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
João Rolim ◽  
José Luís Teixeira ◽  
João Catalão ◽  
Shakib Shahidian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Southern Portugal ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge & Discharge in Water Scarce Region: A Case Study of the Ubar/ Shisr Agricultural Region of Oman.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alaba Boluwade ◽  
Asma Al-Mamani ◽  
Amna Alruheili ◽  
Ali Al-Maktoumi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Agricultural Region ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p> </p><p>*Correspondence: [email protected]</p><p><strong>Abstract: </strong>The primary objective of this study was to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge using the 3D numerical-based HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model in the Ubar/ Shisr Agricultural region in South of Oman. This region has multi-million US dollar irrigated agriculture project purposely developed for the food security of the country. Excessive abstraction of groundwater for irrigation use (using the center pivot irrigation system) has contributed to the “drying-up” of several groundwater wells located in this area. Therefore, there is an urgent need to characterize the long-term sustainability of this agricultural project under a changing climate. HGS model was calibrated on both steady and transient states using selected monitoring wells located within the study area (approximately 980-km<sup>2</sup>). The coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) for the steady-state performance was 0.93 while the transient state performances correctly reproduced the seasonality for each monitoring well. A transient-based calibrated version of the HGS model, using 30-year historical observations (1980-2018) was termed “Reference” while model configurations were developed for the immediate climatic projection (period: 2020 – 2039) based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): - RPC4.5 and RCP8.5 extracted from the World Bank Knowledge portal. These two configured models (scenarios) were evaluated for monthly transient simulations (2020-2039). From the total hydraulic head (THH) fluctuations standpoint, there were reductions when compared with “Reference” for all the scenarios with up to 20% THH reductions for groundwater well levels under persistent seasonal agricultural activities. This study is very important in quantifying the trade-offs and synergies involved between sustainable water management and food security initiatives, especially for an arid climate.</p><p>Keywords: groundwater recharge; climate change, hydrogeologic modeling; Sultanate of Oman</p>

Sensitivity Analysis with Calibration of Natural Resource Variables under Climate Change

2017 ◽  
pp. 681-691
Author(s):  
Nilanjan Ghosh ◽  
Somnath Hazra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
The Other ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Human Economy ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

This chapter compares two quantitative frameworks, namely, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Econometric models to study the impacts of climate change on human economy. However, as is inferred from this chapter, CGE framework is fraught with unrealistic assumptions, and fails to capture impacts of climate change and extreme events on the ecosystem services. On the other hand, econometric framework can be customised and is not based on the unrealistic assumptions like CGE. The various advantages and disadvantages of the two methods have been discussed critically in the process in this chapter in light of the avowed objective of understanding sustainability science.

scholarly journals Policy measures to promote mid-summer drainage in paddy fields for a reduction in methane gas emissions: the application of a dynamic, spatial computable general equilibrium model

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 211-222
Author(s):  
Yoji Kunimitsu ◽  
Motoki Nishimori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Paddy Fields ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Nominal Income ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Spatial Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Environmental Subsidies

Abstract Rice production is affected by climate change, while climate change is simultaneously accelerated by methane gas (CH4) emissions from paddy fields. The rice sector must take suitable mitigation measures, such as prolonging mid-summer drainage (MSD) before the rice flowering period. To propose a mitigation policy, this study aims to demonstrate the environmental and economic effects of MSD in Japanese paddy fields by using a dynamic, spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and crop model; the study also considers environmental subsidies with a carbon tax scheme to promote MSD measures. The results demonstrate that climate change under the 8.5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario will reduce rice prices and rice farmers’ nominal income due to bumper harvests until the 2050s. Promoting MSD in paddy fields can prevent a decrease in farmers’ nominal income and effectively reduce CH4 emissions if all farmers adopt this measure. However, some farmers can potentially increase their own yield by avoiding MSD under high rice prices, which would be maintained through other farmers’ participation. A strong motivation exists for some farmers to gain a “free ride,” and an environmental subsidy with a carbon tax can help motivate farmers to adopt MSD. Therefore, the policy mix of prolonging MSD and environmental subsidies can increase all farmers’ incomes by preventing “free rides” and decrease greenhouse gas emissions with a slight decrease in Japan’s GDP.

scholarly journals Framing hydropower as green energy: assessing drivers, risks and tensions in the Eastern Himalayas

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 195-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Ahlers ◽  
J. Budds ◽  
D. Joshi ◽  
V. Merme ◽  
M. Zwarteveen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
Hydropower Development ◽  
Eastern Himalayas ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Private Actors ◽  
Diverse Groups

Abstract. The culturally and ecologically diverse region of the Eastern Himalayas is the target of ambitious hydropower development plans. Policy discourses at national and international levels position this development as synergistically positive: it combines the production of clean energy to fuel economic growth at regional and national levels with initiatives to lift poor mountain communities out of poverty. Different from hydropower development in the 20th century in which development agencies and banks were important players, contemporary initiatives importantly rely on the involvement of private actors, with a prominent role of the private finance sector. This implies that hydropower development is not only financially viable but also understood as highly profitable. This paper examines the new development of hydropower in the Eastern Himalayas of Nepal and India. It questions its framing as green energy, interrogates its links with climate change, and examines its potential for investment and capital accumulation. To do this, we also review the evidence on the extent to which its construction and operation may modify existing hydrogeological processes and ecosystems, as well as its impacts on the livelihoods of diverse groups of people that depend on these. The paper concludes that hydropower development in the region is characterized by inherent contentions and uncertainties, refuting the idea that dams constitute development projects whose impacts can be simply predicted, controlled and mitigated. Indeed, in a highly complex geological, ecological, cultural and political context that is widely regarded to be especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, hydropower as a development strategy makes for a toxic cocktail.

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