Term Premium Dynamics and the Taylor Rule

2017 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 1750011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Gallmeyer ◽  
Burton Hollifield ◽  
Francisco Palomino ◽  
Stanley Zin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Exchange Economy ◽  
Bond Pricing ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Inflation Dynamics ◽  
Term Premium ◽  
Nominal Term

We explore the bond-pricing implications of an exchange economy where preference shocks result in time-varying term premiums in real yields with a Taylor rule determining inflation dynamics and nominal term premiums. We calibrate the model by matching the term structure of the means and volatilities of nominal yields. Unlike a model with exogenous inflation, a Taylor rule matching empirical properties of inflation leads to nominal term premiums that are volatile at long maturities. Increasing monetary policy aggressiveness decreases the level and volatility of nominal yields.

Can a Taylor rule better explain the Fed’s monetary policy through the 1920s and 1930s? A nonlinear cliometric analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Damette ◽  
Fredj Jawadi ◽  
Antoine Parent
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interwar Period ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Working Paper ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Monetary Regimes

Abstract This paper investigates whether a variant of a Taylor rule applied to historical monetary data of the interwar period is useful to gain a better understanding of the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy over the period 1920–1940. To this end, we considered a standard Taylor rule (using two drivers: output gap and inflation gap) and proxied them differently for robustness. Further, we extended this Taylor rule to a nonlinear framework while enabling its coefficient to be time-varying and to change with regard to the phases in business cycle, in order to better capture any further asymmetry in the data and the structural break induced by the Great Depression. Accordingly, we showed two important findings. First, the linearity hypothesis was rejected, and we found that an On/Off Taylor Rule is appropriate to reproduce the conduct of monetary policy during the interwar period more effectively (the activation of drivers only occurs per regime). Second, unlike Field [Field, A. 2015. “The Taylor Rule in the 1920s.” Working Paper], we validated the use of a Taylor rule to explain the conduct of monetary policy in history more effectively. Consequently, this nonlinear Taylor rule specification provides interesting results for a better understanding of monetary regimes during the interwar period, and offers useful complements to narrative monetary history.

Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Efthymios Argyropoulos ◽  
Elias Tzavalis
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Structure Model ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Term Spread ◽  
Term Premium

AbstractThis paper suggests a new empirical methodology of testing the predictions of the term spread between long and short-term interest rates about future changes of the former allowing for term premium effects, according to the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. To capture the effects of a time-varying term premium on the term spread, the paper relies on an empirically attractive affine Gaussian dynamic term structure model which assumes that the term structure of interest rates is spanned by three unobserved state variables. To retrieve accurate values of these variables from interest rates series, the paper suggests a new method which can overcome the effects of measurement (or pricing) errors inherent in these series on the estimates of the model. This method is assessed by a Monte Carlo study. Ignoring these errors will lead to biased estimates of term structure models. The empirical results of the paper provide support for the suggested term structure model. They show that this model can efficiently capture the time-varying term premium effects embodied in long-term interest rates, which can explain the failures of term spread to forecast future changes in long-term rates.

Understanding the Impact of Monetary Policy in Korea using a Macro-Finance Term Structure Model with

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-192
Author(s):  
Woon Wook Jang ◽  
Jaehoon Hahn
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Call Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Term Premium ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Macro Finance

This paper examines the interaction between monetary policy and the macroeconomy using a macro-finance term structure model of Joslin, Priebsch, and Singleton (2012), in which macroeconomic risks are not assumed to be spanned by information about the shape of the yield curve. For model estimation, we apply the Kalman filter to a large number of macroeconomic time series data grouped into output, inflation, and market stress categories and extract three common factors. For the factors determining the shape of the yield curve, we use the call rate, the spread between 10-year government bond yield and the call rate, and a combination of the call rate, 2- and 10-year government bond yields as proxies for the level, slope, and curvature factors. We interpret the call rate as a proxy for both the short rate and the instrument of monetary policy. Empirical results show that the macroeconomic factors have a significant impact on the risk premium associated with monetary policy shocks. Furthermore, we find that monetary policy shocks increase the term premium, which in turn affects the factors determining the yield curve, and such effects on the shape of the yield curve feeds back into the macroeconomic factors. Taken together, empirical findings in this paper can be interpreted as evidence supporting the term premium channel (Ferman, 2011) of monetary policy transmission mechanism.

scholarly journals Modeling changes in US monetary policy with a time-varying nonlinear Taylor rule

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anh D. M. Nguyen ◽  
Efthymios G. Pavlidis ◽  
David A. Peel
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Monetary Economics ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo Methods ◽  
Asymmetric Preferences ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

Abstract The monetary economics literature has highlighted four issues that are important in evaluating US monetary policy since the late 1960s: (i) time variation in policy parameters, (ii) asymmetric preferences, (iii) real-time nature of data, and (iv) heteroskedasticity. In this paper, we exploit advances in sequential monte carlo methods to estimate a time-varying nonlinear Taylor rule that addresses these four issues simultaneously. Our findings suggest that US monetary policy has experienced substantial changes in terms of both the response to inflation and to real economic activity, as well as changes in preferences. These changes cannot be captured adequately by a single structural break at the late 1970s, as has been commonly assumed in the literature, and play a non-trivial role in economic performance.

scholarly journals MARKOV SWITCHING AND THE TAYLOR PRINCIPLE

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 913-930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian J. Murray ◽  
Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy ◽  
David H. Papell
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Recent Trend ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Qualitative Difference ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Monetary Regimes ◽  
Time Varying Parameters ◽  
The Interest Rate

Early research on the Taylor rule typically divided the data exogenously into pre-Volcker and Volcker–Greenspan subsamples. We contribute to the recent trend of endogenizing changes in monetary policy by estimating a real-time forward-looking Taylor rule with endogenous Markov switching coefficients and variance. The response of the interest rate to inflation is regime-dependent, with the pre- and post-Volcker samples containing monetary regimes where the Fed did and did not follow the Taylor principle. Although the Fed consistently adhered to the Taylor principle before 1973 and after 1984, it followed the Taylor principle from 1975 to 1979 and did not follow the Taylor principle from 1980 to 1984. We also find that the Fed only responded to real economic activity during the states in which the Taylor principle held. Our results are consistent with the idea that exogenously dividing postwar monetary policy into pre- and post-Volcker samples is misleading. The greatest qualitative difference between our results and recent research employing time-varying parameters is that we find that the Fed did not adhere to the Taylor principle during most of Paul Volcker's tenure, a finding that accords with the historical record of monetary policy.

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