scholarly journals Modeling and Syndromic Surveillance for Estimating Weather-Induced Heat-Related Illness

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander G. Perry ◽  
Michael J. Korenberg ◽  
Geoffrey G. Hall ◽  
Kieran M. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Hospital Data ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance System ◽  
Fast Orthogonal Search ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Highly Correlated

This paper compares syndromic surveillance and predictive weather-based models for estimating emergency department (ED) visits for Heat-Related Illness (HRI). A retrospective time-series analysis of weather station observations and ICD-coded HRI ED visits to ten hospitals in south eastern Ontario, Canada, was performed from April 2003 to December 2008 using hospital data from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) database, ED patient chief complaint data collected by a syndromic surveillance system, and weather data from Environment Canada. Poisson regression and Fast Orthogonal Search (FOS), a nonlinear time series modeling technique, were used to construct models for the expected number of HRI ED visits using weather predictor variables (temperature, humidity, and wind speed). Estimates of HRI visits from regression models using both weather variables and visit counts captured by syndromic surveillance as predictors were slightly more highly correlated with NACRS HRI ED visits than either regression models using only weather predictors or syndromic surveillance counts.

Emergency department and ‘Google flu trends’ data as syndromic surveillance indicators for seasonal influenza

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (11) ◽  
pp. 2397-2405 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. H. THOMPSON ◽  
M. T. MALIK ◽  
A. GUMEL ◽  
T. STROME ◽  
S. M. MAHMUD
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Physician Visits ◽  
Influenza Activity ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Highly Correlated

SUMMARYWe evaluated syndromic indicators of influenza disease activity developed using emergency department (ED) data – total ED visits attributed to influenza-like illness (ILI) (‘ED ILI volume’) and percentage of visits attributed to ILI (‘ED ILI percent’) – and Google flu trends (GFT) data (ILI cases/100 000 physician visits). Congruity and correlation among these indicators and between these indicators and weekly count of laboratory-confirmed influenza in Manitoba was assessed graphically using linear regression models. Both ED and GFT data performed well as syndromic indicators of influenza activity, and were highly correlated with each other in real time. The strongest correlations between virological data and ED ILI volume and ED ILI percent, respectively, were 0·77 and 0·71. The strongest correlation of GFT was 0·74. Seasonal influenza activity may be effectively monitored using ED and GFT data.

scholarly journals Predicting emergency department visits in a large teaching hospital

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Singh Erkamp ◽  
Dirk Hendrikus van Dalen ◽  
Esther de Vries
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Teaching Hospital ◽  
Time Trend ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Ed Visits

Abstract Background Emergency department (ED) visits show a high volatility over time. Therefore, EDs are likely to be crowded at peak-volume moments. ED crowding is a widely reported problem with negative consequences for patients as well as staff. Previous studies on the predictive value of weather variables on ED visits show conflicting results. Also, no such studies were performed in the Netherlands. Therefore, we evaluated prediction models for the number of ED visits in our large the Netherlands teaching hospital based on calendar and weather variables as potential predictors. Methods Data on all ED visits from June 2016 until December 31, 2019, were extracted. The 2016–2018 data were used as training set, the 2019 data as test set. Weather data were extracted from three publicly available datasets from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Weather observations in proximity of the hospital were used to predict the weather in the hospital’s catchment area by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation method. The predictability of daily ED visits was examined by creating linear prediction models using stepwise selection; the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used as measurement of fit. Results The number of daily ED visits shows a positive time trend and a large impact of calendar events (higher on Mondays and Fridays, lower on Saturdays and Sundays, higher at special times such as carnival, lower in holidays falling on Monday through Saturday, and summer vacation). The weather itself was a better predictor than weather volatility, but only showed a small effect; the calendar-only prediction model had very similar coefficients to the calendar+weather model for the days of the week, time trend, and special time periods (both MAPE’s were 8.7%). Conclusions Because of this similar performance, and the inaccuracy caused by weather forecasts, we decided the calendar-only model would be most useful in our hospital; it can probably be transferred for use in EDs of the same size and in a similar region. However, the variability in ED visits is considerable. Therefore, one should always anticipate potential unforeseen spikes and dips in ED visits that are not shown by the model.

scholarly journals Outbreak of ED visits related to the use of synthetic cannabinoids, Mayotte Island

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Vilain ◽  
Salamta Bah-Assoumani ◽  
Ali-Mohamed Youssouf ◽  
Laurent Filleul
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Behavioral Disorders ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance ◽  
Adverse Reactions ◽  
Health Agency ◽  
Case Definition ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance System ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Mental And Behavioral Disorders

ObjectiveTo confirm and to characterize the increase in emergency department (ED) visits related to the use of synthetic cannabinoids (SC)IntroductionOn October 2016, the Indian Ocean Regional Health Agency was alerted about an increase in ED visits related to adverse reactions associated with use of SC on Mayotte Island. In this context, an investigation based on a syndromic surveillance system was implemented by the regional unit of the French national public health agency.MethodsAn extraction of anonymized records routinely collected by the syndromic surveillance system (1) was carried out from January 1st, 2012 to October 30, 2016. ED visits related to the consumption of SC were identified from ICD-10 codes of the principal diagnostic according to two levels of confidence:- a probable case was defined as ED visit coded X69 (Intentional self-poisoning by and exposure to other and unspecified chemicals and noxious substances). This code has been implemented specifically by ED physicians since august 2015;- a suspect case was defined as ED visit coded: F11 (Mental and behavioral disorders due to use of opioids), F12 (Mental and behavioral disorders due to use of cannabinoids), F16 (Mental and behavioral disorders due to use of hallucinogens), F18 (Mental and behavioral disorders due to use of volatile solvents), F19 (Mental and behavioral disorders due to multiple drug use and use of other psychoactive substances).Based on these data, an epidemic curve and a descriptive analysis of ED visits were carried out.ResultsIn total, 146 ED visits related to adverse events associated with use of SC were registered from January 1st, 2012 to October 30, 2016. The epidemic curve shows two waves between 2015 and 2016 with a particularly high peak in August 2015 (Figure 1). In total, 49% (n=72/146) of these ED visits were probably related to adverse reactions associated to use SC and 51% (n=74/146) meet to the suspect case definition. On the surveillance period, men represented 84% of the patients (n=122) and median age (min – max) was 23 (8-62) years old. When the severity score variable was filled (n = 138), a vital emergency was reported for 4% (n = 5) of patients and 19% of patients were hospitalized.ConclusionsData from syndromic surveillance system allowed to confirm an increase in ED visits related to adverse reactions associated with use of SC in Mayotte Island. To our knowledge, it’s the first time that an outbreak related to use SC is described in the Ocean Indian areaThis phenomenon was particularly marked in 2015 with a peak of ED visits on August 2016.After this outbreak, the regional unit of the French national public health agency recommended the pursuit of the coding X69 in principal diagnosis with the following case definition: any patient with an adverse reaction attributed to synthetic cannabinoid use whether suspected by the medical team or declared by the patient himself or if the patient is in possession of the substance; and to raise awareness ED physicians to the notification of these poisonings to the Regional Addictive Surveillance Center.In conclusion, the young population, weakened by a precarious socio-economic situation, is a target for new synthetic drugs and a threat to public health. This emerging risk in Mayotte must be taken into account and must be actively monitored. In this context, collaborative work with the emergency services must continue in parallel with targeted prevention measures.References1. Vilain P, Maillard O, Raslan-Loubatie J, Abdou MA, Lernout T, Filleul L. Usefulness of Syndromic Surveillance for Early Outbreak Detection in Small Islands: The Case of Mayotte. Online Journal of Public Health Informatics. 2013;5(1):e149.

scholarly journals Characterizing the Effects of Extreme Cold Using Real-time Syndromic Surveillance, Ontario, Canada, 2010-2016

2017 ◽  
Vol 132 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 48S-52S ◽  
Author(s):  
Nancy VanStone ◽  
Adam van Dijk ◽  
Timothy Chisamore ◽  
Brian Mosley ◽  
Geoffrey Hall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance ◽  
Cold Temperature ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance System ◽  
Southern Ontario ◽  
Threshold Temperatures ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Extreme Cold

Morbidity and mortality from exposure to extreme cold highlight the need for meaningful temperature thresholds to activate public health alerts. We analyzed emergency department (ED) records for cold temperature–related visits collected by the Acute Care Enhanced Surveillance system—a syndromic surveillance system that captures data on ED visits from hospitals in Ontario—for geographic trends related to ambient winter temperature. We used 3 Early Aberration Reporting System algorithms of increasing sensitivity—C1, C2, and C3—to determine the temperature at which anomalous counts of cold temperature–related ED visits occurred in northern and southern Ontario from 2010 to 2016. The C2 algorithm was the most sensitive detection method. Results showed lower threshold temperatures for Acute Care Enhanced Surveillance alerts in northern Ontario than in southern Ontario. Public health alerts for cold temperature warnings that are based on cold temperature–related ED visit counts and ambient temperature may improve the accuracy of public warnings about cold temperature risks.

scholarly journals Building a Better Syndromic Surveillance System: the New York City Experience

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Mathes ◽  
Jessica Sell ◽  
Anthony W. Tam ◽  
Alison Levin-Rector ◽  
Ramona Lall
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance System ◽  
Aberration Detection ◽  
Ed Visits

The New York City (NYC) syndromic surveillance system has been monitoring syndromes from city emergency department (ED) visits since 2001. We conducted an evaluation of statistical aberration detection methods currently in use in our system as well as alternative methods, applying six temporal and four spatio-temporal aberration detection methods to two years of ED visits in NYC spiked with synthetic outbreaks. We found performance varied between the methods in regard to sensitivity, specificity, and timeliness, and implementation of these methods will depend on needs, frequency of signals, and technical skill.

scholarly journals Flexibility of ED surveillance system to monitor dengue outbreak in Reunion Island

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Vilain ◽  
Muriel Vincent ◽  
Anne Fouillet ◽  
Katia Mougin-Damour ◽  
Xavier Combes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance ◽  
Reunion Island ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance System ◽  
Dengue Outbreak ◽  
Icd 10 ◽  
Réunion Island ◽  
Ed Visits

ObjectiveTo describe the characteristics of ED vitis related to dengue fever and to show how the syndromic surveillance system can be flexible for the monitoring of this outbreak.IntroductionIn Reunion Island, a French overseas territory located in the southwestern of Indian Ocean, the dengue virus circulation is sporadic. Since 2004, between 10 and 221 probable and confirmed autochthonous dengue fever cases have been reported annually. Since January 2018, the island has experienced a large epidemic of DENV serotype 2. As of 4 September 2018, 6,538 confirmed and probable autochthonous cases have been notified1. From the beginning of the epidemic, the regional office of National Public Health Agency (ANSP) in Indian Ocean enhanced the syndromic surveillance system in order to monitor the outbreak and to provide hospital morbidity data to public health authorities.MethodsIn Reunion Island, the syndromic surveillance system called OSCOUR® network (Organisation de la Surveillance Coordonnée des Urgences) is based on all emergency departments (ED)2. Anonymous data are collected daily directly from the patients’ computerized medical files completed during medical consultations. Every day, data files are sent to the ANSP via a regional server over the internet using a file transfer protocol. Each file transmitted to ANSP includes all patient visits to the ED logged during the previous 24 hours (midnight to midnight). Finally, data are integrated in a national database (including control of data quality regarding authorized thesauri) and are made available to the regional office through an online application3.Following the start of dengue outbreak in week 4 of 2018, the regional office organized meetings with physicians in each ED to present the dengue epidemiological update and to recommend the coding of ED visit related to dengue for any suspect case (acute fever disease and two or more of the following signs or symptoms: nausea, vomiting, rash, headache, retro-orbital pain, myalgia). During these meetings, it was found that the version of ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases) was different from one ED to another. Indeed, some ED used A90, A91 (ICD-10 version: 2015) for visit related to dengue and others used A97 and subdivisions (ICD-10 version: 2016). As the ICD-10 version: 2015 was implemented at the national server, some passages could be excluded. In this context, the thesaurus of medical diagnosis implemented in the national database has been updated so that all codes can be accepted. ED visits related to dengue fever has been then described according to age group, gender and hospitalization.ResultsFrom week 9 of 2018, the syndromic surveillance system was operational to monitor dengue outbreak. The regional office has provided each week, an epidemic curve of ED visits for dengue and a dashboard on descriptive characteristic of these visits. In total, 441 ED visits for dengue were identified from week 9 to week 34 of 2018 (Figure 1). On this period, the weekly number of ED visits for dengue was correlated with the weekly number of probable and confirmed autochthonous cases (rho=0.86, p<0.001). Among these visits, the male/female ratio was 0.92 and median (min-max) age was 44 (2-98) years. The distribution by age group showed that 15-64 year-old (72.1%, n=127) were most affected. Age groups 65 years and more and 0-14 year-old represented respectively 21.8% (n=96) and 6.1% (n=27) of dengue visits. About 30% of dengue visits were hospitalized.ConclusionsAccording Buehler et al., “the flexibility of a surveillance system refers to the system's ability to change as needs change. The adaptation to changing detection needs or operating conditions should occur with minimal additional time, personnel, or other resources. Flexibility generally improves the more data processing is handled centrally rather than distributed to individual data-providing facilities because fewer system and operator behavior changes are needed...” 4.During this dengue outbreak, the syndromic surveillance system seems to have met this purpose. In four weeks (from week 5 to week 9 of 2018), the system was able to adapt to the epidemiological situation with minimal additional resources and personnel. Indeed, updates were not made in the IT systems of each EDs’ but at the level of the national ANSP server (by one person). This surveillance system was also flexible thank to the reactivity of ED physicians who timely implemented coding of visits related to dengue fever.In conclusion, ED surveillance system constitutes an added-value for the dengue outbreak monitoring in Reunion Island. The automated collection and analysis data allowed to provide hospital morbidity (severe dengue) data to public health authorities. Although the epidemic has decreased, this system also allows to continue a routine active surveillance in order to quickly identify a new increase.References1Santé publique France. Surveillance de la dengue à la Réunion. Point épidémiologique au 4 septembre 2018. http://invs.santepubliquefrance.fr/fr/Publications-et-outils/Points-epidemiologiques/Tous-les-numeros/Ocean-Indien/2018/Surveillance-de-la-dengue-a-la-Reunion.-Point-epidemiologique-au-4-septembre-2018. [Accessed September 8, 2018].2Vilain P, Filleul F. La surveillance syndromique à la Réunion : un système de surveillance intégré. [Syndromic surveillance in Reunion Island: integrated surveillance system]. Bulletin de Veille Sanitaire. 2013;(21):9-12. http://invs.santepubliquefrance.fr/fr/Publications-et-outils/Bulletin-de-veille-sanitaire/Tous-les-numeros/Ocean-indien-Reunion-Mayotte/Bulletin-de-veille-sanitaire-ocean-Indien.-N-21-Septembre-2013. [Accessed September 4, 2018].3Fouillet A, Fournet N, Caillère N et al. SurSaUD® Software: A Tool to Support the Data Management, the Analysis and the Dissemination of Results from the French Syndromic Surveillance System. OJPHI. 2013; 5(1): e118.4Buehler JW, Hopkins RS, Overhage JM, Sosin DM, Tong V; CDC Working Group. Framework for evaluating public health surveillance systems for early detection of outbreaks: recommendations from the CDC Working Group. MMWR Recomm Rep. 2004;53(RR-5):1-11.

scholarly journals Usefulness of Syndromic Surveillance during Ultra-endurance Running Races: Example with the “Grand Raid de la Réunion” Ultra Trail

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélie Martin ◽  
Pascal Vilain ◽  
Arnaud Bourdé ◽  
Xavier Combes ◽  
Pierre-Jean Marianne dit Cassou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Syndromic Surveillance ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
La Réunion ◽  
Endurance Running ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance System ◽  
Sporting Event ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Global Increase ◽  
Ultra Endurance ◽  
The Impact

The "Grand Raid de la Réunion" is one of the hardest ultra trails in the world. This endurance running race has consequences on health's runners. We used syndromic surveillance to estimate the health impact of this sporting event on the Emergency Departments (ED) of Reunion Island. During the race's period, a global increase of the ED visits all causes was observed. The syndromic surveillance system detected a significant ED visits' increase for hydro-electrolytic disorders. These results highlight the usefulness of syndromic surveillance to estimate the impact on health of a mass gathering on a sporting event of great magnitude.

scholarly journals The effect of winter weather on timber truck tare weights

Silva Fennica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Perttu Anttila ◽  
Tuomas Nummelin ◽  
Kari Väätäinen ◽  
Juha Laitila
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Maximum Loss ◽  
Payload Capacity ◽  
One Year ◽  
Increasing Precipitation ◽  
Very High

In wintertime, the payload capacity of a timber truck is reduced by snow that accumulates on the structures of the truck. The aim of this study was to quantify the potential payload loss due to snow and winter accessories and to predict the loss with weather variables. Tare weights of eight timber trucks were collected at mill receptions in Finland over a one-year period. Monthly and annual loss of potential payload was estimated using the tare measurements in summer months as a reference. Each load was also connected with weather data at the location and time of delivery and payload loss explained by the weather data with the aid of regression models. The maximum loss of payload varied between 1560 kg and 3100 kg. On a monthly basis, the highest losses occurred in January, when the median values varied between 760 kg and 2180 kg. Over the year, the payload loss ranged between the trucks from 0.5% to 1.5% (from 1.9% and 5.1% in January) of the total number of loads in the study. Payload loss was found to increase with decreasing temperature, increasing relative humidity and increasing precipitation. Although the average payload loss was not very high, the biggest losses occur just during the season of highest capacity utilization. Big differences were also found in the tare weights between the trucks. The results of the study give incentive to develop truck and trailer structures that reduce the adherence of snow.

Monitoring Emergency Department Visits From Puerto Rico in the Aftermath of Hurricane Maria Using Syndromic Surveillance – New York City, 2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-48
Author(s):  
Priscilla W. Wong ◽  
Hilary B. Parton
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Puerto Rico ◽  
York City ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance System ◽  
Ed Visits

ABSTRACTObjective:Syndromic surveillance has been useful for routine surveillance on a variety of health outcomes and for informing situational awareness during public health emergencies. Following the landfall of Hurricane Maria in 2017, the New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) implemented an enhanced syndromic surveillance system to characterize related emergency department (ED) visits.Methods:ED visits with any mention of specific key words (“Puerto,” “Rico,” “hurricane,” “Maria”) in the ED chief complaint or Puerto Rico patient home Zip Code were identified from the DOHMH syndromic surveillance system in the 8-week window leading up to and following landfall. Visit volume comparisons pre- and post-Hurricane Maria were performed using Fisher’s exact test.Results:Analyses identified an overall increase in NYC ED utilization relating to Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria landfall. In particular, there was a small but significant increase in visits involving a medication refill or essential medical equipment. Visits for other outcomes, such as mental illness, also increased, but the differences were not statistically significant.Conclusions:Gaining this situational awareness of medical service use was informative following Hurricane Maria, and, following any natural disaster, the same surveillance methods could be easily established to aid an effective emergency response.

Propagation Index on Airport Delays

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (8) ◽  
pp. 536-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingyuan Zhang ◽  
Xuting Zhou ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Lijun Sun ◽  
Ming Dun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Delay Time ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Propagation Effect ◽  
Flight Delays ◽  
Delay Propagation ◽  
Highly Correlated

This paper explores the propagation effect of flight delays among airports in the aviation system and proposes a new measure, the propagation index, to effectively analyze the interrelationship among airports in relation to flight delays. This index quantifies the effect of delay propagation by measuring the causality among delay time series. To assess the effectiveness of the proposed index on airport delays, three neural network-based regression models are built. The comparative experiments demonstrate that the propagation index proposed is highly correlated with observed airport delays.

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