scholarly journals Methodology for Developing Hydrological Models Based on an Artificial Neural Network to Establish an Early Warning System in Small Catchments

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivana Sušanj ◽  
Nevenka Ožanić ◽  
Ivan Marović

In some situations, there is no possibility of hazard mitigation, especially if the hazard is induced by water. Thus, it is important to prevent consequences via an early warning system (EWS) to announce the possible occurrence of a hazard. The aim and objective of this paper are to investigate the possibility of implementing an EWS in a small-scale catchment and to develop a methodology for developing a hydrological prediction model based on an artificial neural network (ANN) as an essential part of the EWS. The methodology is implemented in the case study of the Slani Potok catchment, which is historically recognized as a hazard-prone area, by establishing continuous monitoring of meteorological and hydrological parameters to collect data for the training, validation, and evaluation of the prediction capabilities of the ANN model. The model is validated and evaluated by visual and common calculation approaches and a new evaluation for the assessment. This new evaluation is proposed based on the separation of the observed data into classes based on the mean data value and the percentages of classes above or below the mean data value as well as on the performance of the mean absolute error.

2022 ◽  
pp. 1224-1245
Author(s):  
Ramona Diana Leon

The sharing economy is challenging the traditional business models and strategies by encouraging collaboration, non-ownership, temporal access, and redistribution of goods and/or services. Within this framework, the current chapter aims to examine how managers influence, voluntarily or involuntarily, the reliability of a managerial early warning system, based on an artificial neural network. The analysis focuses on seven Romanian sustainable knowledge-based organizations and brings forward that managers tend to influence the results provided by a managerial early warning system based on artificial neural network, voluntarily and involuntarily. On the one hand, they are the ones who consciously decide which departments and persons are involved in establishing the structure of the managerial early warning system. On the other hand, they unconsciously influence the structure of the managerial early warning system through the authority they exercise during the managerial debate.


Author(s):  
Ramona Diana Leon

The sharing economy is challenging the traditional business models and strategies by encouraging collaboration, non-ownership, temporal access, and redistribution of goods and/or services. Within this framework, the current chapter aims to examine how managers influence, voluntarily or involuntarily, the reliability of a managerial early warning system, based on an artificial neural network. The analysis focuses on seven Romanian sustainable knowledge-based organizations and brings forward that managers tend to influence the results provided by a managerial early warning system based on artificial neural network, voluntarily and involuntarily. On the one hand, they are the ones who consciously decide which departments and persons are involved in establishing the structure of the managerial early warning system. On the other hand, they unconsciously influence the structure of the managerial early warning system through the authority they exercise during the managerial debate.


2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aghus Sofwan ◽  
Sumardi ◽  
Najib ◽  
Indrah Wendah Atma Bhirawa

Landslide is a natural sloping ground movement disaster that can occur due to several factors such as high rainfall, soil moisture in the depth of the soil of an area, vibrations experienced in the region, and the slope of the ground structure. A system that can deliver these factor values into the levels of vulnerability of landslide disasters is needed. The system uses Arduino Mega 2560 to process the level of vulnerability. It can predict the moment and the probability of the disaster occurring as an early warning system. The artificial neural network (ANN) intelligent system can expect an event of a disaster. The designed ANN used five parameters causing landslide as input data: rainfall, slope, soil moisture on the surface, soil moisture in the ground’s depth, and soil vibration. The ANN system output delivered three-level conditions: the safe, the standby, and the hazardous. The feed-forward backpropagation (FFBP) and the cascade forward backpropagation (CFBP) methods were analyzed. The performance of both methods was compared in terms of minimum square error (MSE). The MSE results of FFBP and CFBP in the safe, the standby, and the hazardous conditions were 0.017076 and 0.034952; 0.049597 and 0.046764; 0.062105 and 0.060355; respectively. The results point to the supremacy of CFBP to FFBP in standby and hazardous conditions. Therefore, the CFBP is implemented into the hardware of the early warning system.


Author(s):  
Geoffroy Chaussonnet ◽  
Sebastian Gepperth ◽  
Simon Holz ◽  
Rainer Koch ◽  
Hans-Jörg Bauer

Abstract A fully connected Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the mean spray characteristics of prefilming airblast atomization. The model is trained from the planar prefilmer experiment from the PhD thesis of Gepperth (2020). The output of the ANN model are the Sauter Mean Diameter, the mean droplet axial velocity, the mean ligament length and the mean ligament deformation velocity. The training database contains 322 different operating points. Two types of model input quantities are investigated and compared. First, nine dimensional parameters are used as inputs for the model. Second, nine non-dimensional groups commonly used for liquid atomization are derived from the first set of inputs. The best architecture is determined after testing over 10000 randomly drawn ANN architectures, with up to 10 layers and up to 128 neurons per layer. The striking results is that for both types of model, the best architectures consist of only 3 hidden layer in the shape of a diabolo. This shape recalls the shape of an autoencoder, where the middle layer would be the feature space of reduced dimensionality. It was found that the model with dimensional input quantities always shows a lower test and validation errors than the one with non-dimensional input quantities. In general, the two types of models provide comparable accuracy, better than typical correlations of SMD and droplet velocity. Finally the extrapolation capability of the models was assessed by a training them on a confined domain of parameters and testing them outside this domain.


10.17158/320 ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric John G. Emberda ◽  
Den Ryan L. Dumas ◽  
Timothy Pierce M. Rentillo

<p>This study compared the use of Linear Regression and Feed Forward Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in forecasting the coconut yield and copra yield of a selected area in Davao region. Raw data were gathered from the Philippine Coconut Authority, Davao Research Center. An ANN model was created and tested repeatedly to the best combination of nodes. Accuracy of the forecast between the two methods was compared by looking at the mean square error and the standard error for variable x and y. Results showed that the use of Feed Forward Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network gives better accuracy of the forecast data.</p>


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 351-363
Author(s):  
Andrew Y A Oyieke ◽  
Freddie L Inambao

Abstract In this study, a multi-layered artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm was developed and trained to predict the performance of a solar powered liquid desiccant air conditioning (LDAC) system particularly the adiabatic packed tower dehumidifier using Lithium Bromide (LiBr) desiccant. A reinforced technique of supervised learning based on error correction principle rule coupled with perceptron convergence theorem was applied to create the algorithm. The parameters such as temperature, flow rates and humidity ratio of both air and desiccant fluid were fed as inputs to the ANN algorithm and their respective outputs used to determine dehumidifier effectiveness and moisture removal rate (MRR). The ANN model when subjected to validity tests using vapour pressure of LiBr desiccant solution at specific random temperatures and concentrations, gave astounding outcomes with precise estimation to R2 values of 0.9999 for all desiccant concentration levels. Due to the variation in solar radiation, the MRR and effectiveness fluctuated with the change in desiccant and air temperatures, giving maximum differences of 0.2 g/s and 1.8% respectively between the predicted and measured values depicting a perfect match. With respect to humidity ratio, MRR was accurately predicted by ANN algorithm with maximum difference of 3.4969% while the mean variation was −0.5957%. With respect to air temperature, the dehumidifier effectiveness was perfectly predicted by the ANN algorithm to an average accuracy of 0.53% and extreme positive deviation of 4.14%. The MRR was replicated to a mean variation of 0.013% and highest point difference of 0.08%. In all the above cases, the mean and maximum differences between the ANN model and experimental values were far below the allowable limit of ± 5%, hence the algorithm was deemed to be successful and could find use in air conditioning scenarios. The ANN algorithm’s capability and flexibility test of processing unforeseen inputs was accurate with negligible deviations and prospects of predicting the desiccant’s vapour pressure, dehumidifier effectiveness and MRR within all ranges of temperature and concentration which then eliminates the need for use of charts.


Author(s):  
Z. L. Chou ◽  
J. J. R. Cheng ◽  
Joe Zhou

As the demand for oil and gas resources increases pipeline construction pushes further into the geologically unstable Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. Consequently, these buried pipelines suffer much harsh environmental and complex loading conditions. In addition, higher strength and larger size pipes with higher operation pressure are used gradually. These severe and unknown conditions increase the risk of pipeline failure, especially, local buckling (wrinkling) failure. The wrinkling failure and sequential pipe fracture can cause enormous cost loss as well as high risk in safety and environmental impact. In the past, to prevent the buried pipelines from buckling failure, the pipeline maintenance was processed by periodical inspections and excavations in the field. The whole procedure is expansive and time consuming, and has no active warning system for possible failures between the inspection periods. Therefore, to overcome these problems, an automatic warning system for monitoring pipeline buckling is developed. A damage detection model (DDM) with artificial neural network (ANN) is a kern of the warning system and discussed in this paper. The proposed DDM will allow engineers to diagnose the pipe condition reliably and continuously without interrupt the normal operation of buried pipelines. The proposed DDM successfully identifies the distributed strain patterns in local characteristics as well as global trend. Some significant findings in the ANN model working with distributed strain patterns of the pipes are discussed, and a guideline of applying the DDM to the field pipe is also presented in this paper.


Author(s):  
G. Chaussonnet ◽  
S. Gepperth ◽  
S. Holz ◽  
R. Koch ◽  
H.-J. Bauer

Abstract A fully connected Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the spray characteristics of prefilming airblast atomization. The model is trained from the planar prefilmer experiment from the PhD thesis of Gepperth [Experimentelle Untersuchung des Primärzerfalls an generischen luftgestützten Zerstäubern unter Hochdruckbedingungen, Vol. 75. Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH], in which shadowgraphy images of the liquid breakup at the atomizing edge capture the characteristics of the primary droplets and the ligaments. The quantities extracted from the images are the Sauter Mean Diameter, the mean droplet axial velocity, the mean ligament length and the mean ligament deformation velocity. These are the prescribed output of the ANN model. In total, the training database contains 322 different operating points at which different prefilmers, liquid types, ambient pressures, film loadings and gas velocities were investigated. Two types of model input quantities are investigated. First, nine dimensional parameters related to the geometry, the operating conditions and the properties of the liquid are used as inputs for the model. Second, nine non-dimensional groups commonly used for liquid atomization are derived from the first set of inputs. These two types of inputs are compared. The architecture providing the best fitting is determined after testing over 10000 randomly drawn ANN architectures, with up to 10 layers and up to 128 neurons per layer. The striking results is that for both types of model, the best architectures consist of a shallow net with the hidden layers in the form of a diabolo: three layers with a large number of neurons (≥ 64) in the first and the last layer, and very few neurons (≈12) in middle layer. This shape recalls the shape of an autoencoder, where the middle layer would be the feature space of reduced dimensionality. The trend highlighted by our results, to have a limited number of layers, is in contrast with recent observations in Deep Learning applied to computer vision and speech recognition. It was found that the model with dimensional input quantities always shows a lower test and validation errors than the one with non-dimensional input quantities. The best architectures for both types of inputs (dimensional and non-dimensional input) were tested versus the experiments. Both provide comparable accuracy, which is better than typical correlations of SMD and droplet velocity. As the models takes more input parameters into account compared to the correlations, they can predict the experimental data more accurately. Finally the extrapolation capability of the models was assessed by a training them on a confined domain of parameters and testing them outside this domain. It was found that the models can extrapolate at larger gas velocity. With a larger ambient pressure or a lower trailing edge thickness, the accuracy decreases drastically.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 248-261
Author(s):  
Baomin Wang ◽  
Xiao Chang

Background: Angular contact ball bearing is an important component of many high-speed rotating mechanical systems. Oil-air lubrication makes it possible for angular contact ball bearing to operate at high speed. So the lubrication state of angular contact ball bearing directly affects the performance of the mechanical systems. However, as bearing rotation speed increases, the temperature rise is still the dominant limiting factor for improving the performance and service life of angular contact ball bearings. Therefore, it is very necessary to predict the temperature rise of angular contact ball bearings lubricated with oil-air. Objective: The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of temperature calculation of bearing from many studies and patents, and propose a new prediction method for temperature rise of angular contact ball bearing. Methods: Based on the artificial neural network and genetic algorithm, a new prediction methodology for bearings temperature rise was proposed which capitalizes on the notion that the temperature rise of oil-air lubricated angular contact ball bearing is generally coupling. The influence factors of temperature rise in high-speed angular contact ball bearings were analyzed through grey relational analysis, and the key influence factors are determined. Combined with Genetic Algorithm (GA), the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model based on these key influence factors was built up, two groups of experimental data were used to train and validate the ANN model. Results: Compared with the ANN model, the ANN-GA model has shorter training time, higher accuracy and better stability, the output of ANN-GA model shows a good agreement with the experimental data, above 92% of bearing temperature rise under varying conditions can be predicted using the ANNGA model. Conclusion: A new method was proposed to predict the temperature rise of oil-air lubricated angular contact ball bearings based on the artificial neural network and genetic algorithm. The results show that the prediction model has good accuracy, stability and robustness.


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