scholarly journals Evaluation and Prediction of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Strategy Based on the SEIR-AQ Infectious Disease Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Yue Yu ◽  
Yuxing Zhou ◽  
Xiangzhong Meng ◽  
Wenfei Li ◽  
Yang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Inhibitory Effect ◽  
Euler Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Infectious Disease Model ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Based on the SEIR model, which takes into account prevention and control measures, prevention and control awareness, and economic level and medical level indicators, this paper proposes an infectious disease model of “susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-asymptomatic-isolated” (short for SEIR-AQ) to assess and predict the development of the COVID-19 pandemic with different prevention and control strategies. The kinetic parameters of the SEIR-AQ model were obtained by fitting, and the parameters of the SEIR-AQ model were solved through the Euler method. Furthermore, the effects of different countries’ prevention and control strategies on the number of infections, the proportion of isolation, the number of deaths, and the number of recoveries were also simulated. The theoretical analysis showed that measures such as isolation for prevention and control and medical tracking isolation had a significant inhibitory effect on the development of the COVID-19 pandemic, among which stratified treatment and enhanced awareness played a key role in the rapid regression of the peak of COVID-19-infected patients. Conclusion of the Simulation. The SEIR-AQ model can be used to evaluate the development status of the COVID-19 epidemic and has some theoretical value for the prediction of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of Bovine Mastitis and its Diagnosis, Prevention, and Control

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.D. Audarya ◽  
D. Chhabra ◽  
R. Sharda ◽  
R. Gangil ◽  
R. Sikrodia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Bovine Mastitis ◽  
The State ◽  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Etiological Agents ◽  
And Control

Mastitis is an inflammation of mammary glands that is prevalent in dairy bovines. It causes a significant proportion of economic losses to the dairy farmers in India. Cattle and buffalo farming contribute significantly to the economy of the state. Various infectious agents such as bacteria, fungi, and algae may cause mastitis. Hence, it is essential to understand the etiological agents and predisposing factors that lead to mastitis in susceptible bovine populations in Madhya Pradesh state so that appropriate prevention and control strategies can be implemented. In this chapter, epidemiology, diagnosis, prevention, and control measures of mastitis in general and in India, the state of Madhya Pradesh, in particular, will be presented.

scholarly journals Epidemic prevention and control measures in China significantly curbed the epidemic of COVID-19 and influenza

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang-Sha Kong ◽  
Feng Liu ◽  
Hai-Bo Wang ◽  
Rui-Feng Yang ◽  
Dong-Bo Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Tract ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Spring Festival ◽  
Railway Passenger ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

AbstractAt the end of 2019, an outbreak of unknown pathogen pneumonia occurred in China, then it was named corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19). With the rapid spread of COVID-19, a series of strict prevention and control measures were implemented to cut the spread of the epidemic. Influenza as a respiratory tract infection disease as COVID-19 might also be controlled. To assess the effects, we used the total passenger numbers sent in mainland China from 2018 to 2020 and the daily number of railway passenger (DNRP) flow in 2020 during Spring Festival travel rush to reflect the population movement and further to analyze newly and cumulative confirmed COVID-19 and influenza. We found that with implementing the series measures on COVID-19, not only COVID-19, but also influenza mitigated in China. The prevention and control measures for COVID-19 might be used in controlling respiratory tract diseases, and reducing the national health economic burden. When other countries issue measures on COVID-19 and influenza, they should consider adopting more aggressive epidemic prevention and control strategies.

scholarly journals Modelling, Simulations and Analysis of the First and Second COVID-19 Epidemics in Beijing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lequan Min
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Spreading ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

AbstractTo date, over 130 million people on infected with COVID-19. It causes more 2.8 millions deaths. This paper introduces a symptomatic-asymptomatic-recoverer-dead differential equation model (SARDDE). It gives the conditions of the asymptotical stability on the disease-free equilibrium of SARDDE. It proposes the necessary conditions of disease spreading for the SARDDE. Based on the reported data of the first and the second COVID-19 epidemics in Beijing and simulations, it determines the parameters of SARDDE, respectively. Numerical simulations of SARDDE describe well the outcomes of current symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, recovered symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, and died individuals, respectively. The numerical simulations suggest that both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals cause lesser asymptomatic spread than symptomatic spread; blocking rate of about 90% cannot prevent the spread of the COVID19 epidemic in Beijing; the strict prevention and control strategies implemented by Beijing government is not only very effective but also completely necessary. The numerical simulations suggest also that using the data from the beginning to the day after about two weeks at the turning point can estimate well or approximately the following outcomes of the two COVID-19 academics, respectively. It is expected that the research can provide better understanding, explaining, and dominating for epidemic spreads, prevention and control measures.

scholarly journals Modelling, Simulations and Analysis of the First COVID-19 Epidemic in Shanghai

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lequan Min
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Differential Equation Model ◽  
Blocking Rate ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
And Control

To date, over 178 million people on infected with COVID-19. It causes more 3.8 millions deaths. Based on a previous symptomatic-asymptomatic-recoverer-dead differential equation model (SARDDE) and the clinic data of the first COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai, this paper determines the parameters of SARDDE. Numerical simulations of SARDDE describe well the outcomes of current symptomatic individuals, recovered symptomatic individuals, and died individuals, respectively. The numerical simulations suggest that both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals cause lesser asymptomatic spread than symptomatic spread; blocking rate of about 95.5\% cannot prevent the spread of the COVID19 epidemic in Shanghai. The strict prevention and control strategies implemented by Shanghai government is not only very effective but also completely necessary. The numerical simulations suggest also that using the data from the beginning to the day after about 19 days at the turning point can estimate well the following outcomes of the COVID-19 academic. It is expected that the research can provide better understanding, explaining, and dominating for epidemic spreads, prevention and control measures.

scholarly journals Modelling, Simulations and Analysis of the First and Second COVID-19 Epidemics in Beijing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lequan Min
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Virtual Simulations ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

To date, over 182 million people on infected with COVID-19. It causes more 3.9 millions deaths. This paper introduces a symptomatic-asymptomatic-recoverer-dead differential equation model (SARDDE). It gives the conditions of the asymptotical stability on the disease-free equilibrium of SARDDE. It proposes the necessary conditions of disease spreading for the SARDDE. Based on the reported data of the first and the second COVID-19 epidemics in Beijing and simulations, it determines the parameters of SARDDE, respectively. Numerical simulations of SARDDE describe well the outcomes of current symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, recovered symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, and died individuals, respectively. The numerical simulations suggest that both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals cause lesser asymptomatic spread than symptomatic spread; the blocking rates of about 80% and 97.5% to the symptomatic individuals cannot prevent the spread of the first and second COVID19 epidemics in Beijing, respectively. Virtual simulations suggest that the strict prevention and control strategies implemented by Beijing government are not only very effective but also completely necessary. The numerical simulations suggest also that using the data from the beginning to the day after about 14 -- 17 days at the turning point can estimate well the following outcomes of the two COVID-19 academics, respectively. It is expected that the research can provide better understanding, explaining, and dominating for epidemic spreads, prevention and control measures.

scholarly journals COVID-19 In Shang Hai: It is Worth Learning from the Successful Experience in Preventing and Controlling the Overseas Epidemic Situation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Dang ◽  
Miao Rui ◽  
Liang Yong
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Graph Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Infectious Disease Model ◽  
Multiple Regression Models ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
New Type ◽  
And Control

COVID-19 first appeared in Wuhan, Hubei Province,China in late December 2019 and spread rapidly in China. Currently, the spread of local epidemics has been basically blocked. The import of overseas epidemics has become the main form of growth in China's new epidemic. As an important international transportation hub in China, Shanghai is one of the regions with the highest risk of imported cases abroad. Due to imported of overseas cases are affected by the international epidemic trend. The traditional infectious disease model is difficult to accurately predict the cumulative trend of cumulative cases in the Shanghai areas. It is also difficult to accurately evaluate the effectiveness of the international traffic blockade. In this situation, this study takes Shanghai as an example to propose a new type of infectious disease prediction model. The model first uses the sparse graph model to analyze the international epidemic spread network to find countries and regions related to Shanghai. Next, multiple regression models were used to fit the existing COV-19 growth data in Shanghai. Finally, the model can predict the growth curve of Shanghai's epidemic without blocking traffic. The results show that the control measures taken by Shanghai are very effective. At present, more and more countries and regions will face the current situation in Shanghai. We recommend that other countries and regions learn from Shanghai's successful experience in preventing overseas imports in order to fully prepare for epidemic prevention and control.

scholarly journals Prevention and Control Measures and Effects of COVID-19 in Shenmu City Hospital, China

2020 ◽  
pp. 18-24
Author(s):  
Gao Kun ◽  
Liu Hong ◽  
Liu Yonglin ◽  
Wang Qiang ◽  
Qiao Zhenliang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Control Program ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
City Hospital ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Purpose: To explore the prevention and control strategies and effects of COVID-19 in Shenmu City Hospital, so as to provide basis for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in Shenmu City. Methods: Retrospective analysis and review of our hospital after the outbreak of COVID-19 prevention and control program, response measures and management procedures and other aspects of the deployment. Results: In the 86 days up to April 15, 2020, there were 7,843 pre-diagnosis and triage patients, among which 707 were high-risk group, 3,140 were general population and 3,996 were key population. 992 patients were treated in COVID-19 clinics, 2 suspected cases were reported and 89 were kept under observation. 5, 351 visits in general fever clinics; 89 cases were hospitalized in isolation ward, including 2 suspected cases. COVID-19 was discharged after improvement. Conclusion: Initial progress has been made in epidemic prevention and control. COVID-19 has not been reported in the whole city. It shows that effective prevention and control strategies are of great significance for achieving the goal of "three zeros" (zero infection, zero spread and zero death), and are worth learning and promoting.

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