scholarly journals A Power Load Forecasting Model Based on FA-CSSA-ELM

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Zuoxun Wang ◽  
Xinheng Wang ◽  
Chunrui Ma ◽  
Zengxu Song
Keyword(s):  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Local Optimum ◽  
Chaotic Mapping ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Power Resources ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Power Load Forecasting ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Grid Operation

Accurate and stable power load forecasting methods are essential for the rational allocation of power resources and grid operation. Due to the nonlinear nature of power loads, it is difficult for a single forecasting method to complete the forecasting task accurately and quickly. In this study, a new combined model for power loads forecasting is proposed. The initial weights and thresholds of the extreme learning machine (ELM) optimized by the chaotic sparrow search algorithm (CSSA) and improved by the firefly algorithm (FA) are used to improve the forecasting performance and achieve accurate forecasting. The early local optimum that exists in the sparrow algorithm is overcome by Tent chaotic mapping. A firefly perturbation strategy is used to improve the global optimization capability of the model. Real values from a power grid in Shandong are used to validate the prediction performance of the proposed FA-CSSA-ELM model. Experiments show that the proposed model produces more accurate forecasting results than other single forecasting models or combined forecasting models.

Power Load Forecasting Using Improved Grey-Markov Method

2014 ◽  
Vol 1006-1007 ◽  
pp. 976-981
Author(s):  
Jie Xu ◽  
Yuan Sheng Huang
Keyword(s):  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Gray System Theory ◽  
Gray System ◽  
Power Construction ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Power Load Forecasting ◽  
Grid Operation ◽  
Markov Method

Power load forecasting is an important part of management modernization of power system. Accurate load forecasting can provide reliable guidance for grid operation and power construction planning. For load forecasting "small sample", "poor information", "uncertain", "non-linear" and other features, In this paper, GM (1.1) model was improved in the gray system theory, by constructing the background value sequence to transform the original data, using gray rolling GM (1.1) model and combining Markov prediction model to make power load forecasting. The application results show that this method is accurate and practicable.

An efficient power load forecasting model based on the optimized combination

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (12) ◽  
pp. 2050114
Author(s):  
Jicheng Fang ◽  
Dongqin Shen ◽  
Xiuyi Li ◽  
Huijia Li
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Energy Industry ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Power Load Forecasting ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Efficient Power

The new energy industry gains more and more attention since the problem of resource scarcity and utilization of the renewable energy has become a global highlight issue. In this paper, we propose a new load forecasting model under the development of new energy industry by choosing the typical wind power as the key subject, which is also an important reference for other energy industries. The wind power load forecasting model is built based on optimized combination, which is forecasted and analyzed by the time series, the Markov and the gray forecasting models individually, and then combined by the optimized weighting coefficients. The method has overcome the limitations of poor adaptability of the single forecasting models and come out with an ideal result. Experimental results show our method has better performance compared with other related algorithms in different datasets.

scholarly journals A Combined Model Based on EOBL-CSSA-LSSVM for Power Load Forecasting

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1579
Author(s):  
Xinheng Wang ◽  
Xiaojin Gao ◽  
Zuoxun Wang ◽  
Chunrui Ma ◽  
Zengxu Song
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Power Sector ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Power Load Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Load

Inaccurate electricity load forecasting can lead to the power sector gaining asymmetric information in the supply and demand relationship. This asymmetric information can lead to incorrect production or generation plans for the power sector. In order to improve the accuracy of load forecasting, a combined power load forecasting model based on machine learning algorithms, swarm intelligence optimization algorithms, and data pre-processing is proposed. Firstly, the original signal is pre-processed by the VMD–singular spectrum analysis data pre-processing method. Secondly, the noise-reduced signals are predicted using the Elman prediction model optimized by the sparrow search algorithm, the ELM prediction model optimized by the chaotic adaptive whale algorithm (CAWOA-ELM), and the LSSVM prediction model optimized by the chaotic sparrow search algorithm based on elite opposition-based learning (EOBL-CSSA-LSSVM) for electricity load data, respectively. Finally, the weighting coefficients of the three prediction models are calculated using the simulated annealing algorithm and weighted to obtain the prediction results. Comparative simulation experiments show that the VMD–singular spectrum analysis method and two improved intelligent optimization algorithms proposed in this paper can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. Additionally, the combined forecasting model proposed in this paper has extremely high forecasting accuracy, which can help the power sector to develop a reasonable production plan and power generation plans.

An Efficient Load Forecasting in Predictive Control Strategy Using Hybrid Neural Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (01) ◽  
pp. 2050010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shweta Sengar ◽  
Xiaodong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Cuckoo Search ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Lévy Flight ◽  
Hybrid Neural Network ◽  
Levy Flight ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Power Load Forecasting

Load forecasting is a difficult task, because the load series is complex and exhibits several levels of seasonality. The load at a given hour is dependent not only on the load at the previous day, but also on the load at the same hour on the previous day and previous week, and because there are many important exogenous variables that must be considered. Most of the researches were simultaneously concentrated on the number of input variables to be considered for the load forecasting problem. In this paper, we concentrate on optimizing the load demand using forecasting of the weather conditions, water consumption, and electrical load. Here, the neural network (NN) power load forecasting model clubbed with Levy-flight from cuckoo search algorithm is proposed, i.e., called hybrid neural network (HNN), and named as LF-HNN, where the Levy-flight is used to automatically select the appropriate spread parameter value for the NN power load forecasting model. The results from the simulation work have demonstrated the value of the LF-HNN approach successfully selected the appropriate operating mode to achieve optimization of the overall energy efficiency of the system using all available energy resources.

scholarly journals A VMD–CISSA–LSSVM Based Electricity Load Forecasting Model

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Guijuan Wang ◽  
Xinheng Wang ◽  
Zuoxun Wang ◽  
Chunrui Ma ◽  
Zengxu Song
Keyword(s):  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Population Diversity ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Search Range ◽  
Chaotic Mapping ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Search Capability

Accurate power load forecasting has an important impact on power systems. In order to improve the load forecasting accuracy, a new load forecasting model, VMD–CISSA–LSSVM, is proposed. The model combines the variational modal decomposition (VMD) data preprocessing method, the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) and the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) model. A multi-strategy improved chaotic sparrow search algorithm (CISSA) is proposed to address the shortcomings of the SSA algorithm, which is prone to local optima and a slow convergence. The initial population is generated using an improved tent chaotic mapping to enhance the quality of the initial individuals and population diversity. Second, a random following strategy is used to optimize the position update process of the followers in the sparrow search algorithm, balancing the local exploitation performance and global search capability of the algorithm. Finally, the Levy flight strategy is used to expand the search range and local search capability. The results of the benchmark test function show that the CISSA algorithm has a better search accuracy and convergence performance. The volatility of the original load sequence is reduced by using VMD. The optimal parameters of the LSSVM are optimized by the CISSA. The simulation test results demonstrate that the VMD–CISSA–LSSVM model has the highest prediction accuracy and stabler prediction results.

Research on Power Load Forecasting Model Based on Hybrid Algorithm Optimizing BP Neural Network

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 723-728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenhao Niu ◽  
Xiaomin Xu ◽  
Yan Lu ◽  
Mian Xing
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Electric Power System ◽  
Local Optimum ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Power Load

Short time load forecasting is essential for daily planning and operation of electric power system. It is the important basis for economic dispatching, scheduling and safe operation. Neural network, which has strong nonlinear fitting capability, is widely used in the load forecasting and obtains good prediction effect in nonlinear chaotic time series forecasting. However, the neural network is easy to fall in local optimum, unable to find the global optimal solution. This paper will integrate the traditional optimization algorithm and propose the hybrid intelligent optimization algorithm based on particle swarm optimization algorithm and ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO-PSO) to improve the generalization of the neural network. In the empirical analysis, we select electricity consumption in a certain area for validation. Compared with the traditional BP neutral network and statistical methods, the experimental results demonstrate that the performance of the improved model with more precise results and stronger generalization ability is much better than the traditional methods.

scholarly journals Forecasting for Ultra-Short-Term Electric Power Load Based on Integrated Artificial Neural Networks

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1063 ◽  
Author(s):  
Horng-Lin Shieh ◽  
Fu-Hsien Chen
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Power Load Forecasting ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Electric Power Load

Energy efficiency and renewable energy are the two main research topics for sustainable energy. In the past ten years, countries around the world have invested a lot of manpower into new energy research. However, in addition to new energy development, energy efficiency technologies need to be emphasized to promote production efficiency and reduce environmental pollution. In order to improve power production efficiency, an integrated solution regarding the issue of electric power load forecasting was proposed in this study. The solution proposed was to, in combination with persistence and search algorithms, establish a new integrated ultra-short-term electric power load forecasting method based on the adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and back-propagation neural network (BPN), which can be applied in forecasting electric power load in Taiwan. The research methodology used in this paper was mainly to acquire and process the all-day electric power load data of Taiwan Power and execute preliminary forecasting values of the electric power load by applying ANFIS, BPN and persistence. The preliminary forecasting values of the electric power load obtained therefrom were called suboptimal solutions and finally the optimal weighted value was determined by applying a search algorithm through integrating the above three methods by weighting. In this paper, the optimal electric power load value was forecasted based on the weighted value obtained therefrom. It was proven through experimental results that the solution proposed in this paper can be used to accurately forecast electric power load, with a minimal error.

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