Abstract 111: External Validations of Clinical Predictive Models for Patients with Sudden Cardiac Arrest

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard T Carrick ◽  
Christine M Lundquist ◽  
Kristen Brown ◽  
Jinny G Park ◽  
William A Janes ◽  
...  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (16) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard T. Carrick ◽  
Jinny G. Park ◽  
Hannah L. McGinnes ◽  
Christine Lundquist ◽  
Kristen D. Brown ◽  
...  

Background More than 500 000 sudden cardiac arrests (SCAs) occur annually in the United States. Clinical predictive models (CPMs) may be helpful tools to differentiate between patients who are likely to survive or have good neurologic recovery and those who are not. However, which CPMs are most reliable for discriminating between outcomes in SCA is not known. Methods and Results We performed a systematic review of the literature using the Tufts PACE (Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness) CPM Registry through February 1, 2020, and identified 81 unique CPMs of SCA and 62 subsequent external validation studies. Initial cardiac rhythm, age, and duration of cardiopulmonary resuscitation were the 3 most commonly used predictive variables. Only 33 of the 81 novel SCA CPMs (41%) were validated at least once. Of 81 novel SCA CPMs, 56 (69%) and 61 of 62 validation studies (98%) reported discrimination, with median c‐statistics of 0.84 and 0.81, respectively. Calibration was reported in only 29 of 62 validation studies (41.9%). For those novel models that both reported discrimination and were validated (26 models), the median percentage change in discrimination was −1.6%. We identified 3 CPMs that had undergone at least 3 external validation studies: the out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest score (9 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.79), the cardiac arrest hospital prognosis score (6 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.83), and the good outcome following attempted resuscitation score (6 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.76). Conclusions Although only a small number of SCA CPMs have been rigorously validated, the ones that have been demonstrate good discrimination.


Open Heart ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e001554
Author(s):  
Laura H van Dongen ◽  
Peter P Harms ◽  
Mark Hoogendoorn ◽  
Dominic S Zimmerman ◽  
Elisabeth M Lodder ◽  
...  

IntroductionEarly recognition of individuals with increased risk of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) remains challenging. SCA research so far has used data from cardiologist care, but missed most SCA victims, since they were only in general practitioner (GP) care prior to SCA. Studying individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in GP care may help solve this problem, as they have increased risk for SCA, and rich clinical datasets, since they regularly visit their GP for check-up measurements. This information can be further enriched with extensive genetic and metabolic information.AimTo describe the study protocol of the REcognition of Sudden Cardiac arrest vUlnErability in Diabetes (RESCUED) project, which aims at identifying clinical, genetic and metabolic factors contributing to SCA risk in individuals with T2D, and to develop a prognostic model for the risk of SCA.MethodsThe RESCUED project combines data from dedicated SCA and T2D cohorts, and GP data, from the same region in the Netherlands. Clinical data, genetic data (common and rare variant analysis) and metabolic data (metabolomics) will be analysed (using classical analysis techniques and machine learning methods) and combined into a prognostic model for risk of SCA.ConclusionThe RESCUED project is designed to increase our ability at early recognition of elevated SCA risk through an innovative strategy of focusing on GP data and a multidimensional methodology including clinical, genetic and metabolic analyses.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Zylyftari ◽  
S.G Moller ◽  
M Wissenberg ◽  
F Folke ◽  
C.A Barcella ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Patients who suffer a sudden out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) may be preceded by warning symptoms and healthcare system contact. Though, is currently difficult early identification of sudden cardiac arrest patients. Purpose We aimed to examine contacts with the healthcare system up to two weeks and one year before OHCA. Methods OHCA patients were identified from the Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry (2001–2014). The pattern of healthcare contacts (with either general practitioner (GP) or hospital) within the year prior to OHCA of OHCA patients was compared with that of 9 sex- and age-matched controls from the background general population. Additionally, we evaluated characteristics of OHCA patients according to the type of healthcare contact (GP/hospital/both/no-contact) and the including characteristics of contacts, within two weeks prior their OHCA event. Results Out of 28,955 OHCA patients (median age of 72 (62–81) years and with 67% male) of presumed cardiac cause, 16,735 (57.8%) contacted the healthcare system (GP and hospital) within two weeks prior to OHCA. From one year before OHCA, the weekly percentages of contacts to GP were relatively constant (26%) until within 2 weeks prior to OHCA where they markedly increased (54%). In comparison, 14% of the general population contacted the GP during the same period (Figure). The weekly percentages of contacts with hospitals gradually increased in OHCA patients from 3.5% to 6.5% within 6 months, peaking at the second week (6.8%), prior to OHCA. In comparison, only 2% of the general population had a hospital contact in that period (Figure). Within 2 weeks of OHCA, patients contacted GP mainly by telephone (71.6%). Hospital diagnoses were heterogenous, where ischemic heart disease (8%) and heart failure (4.5%) were the most frequent. Conclusions There is an increase in healthcare contacts prior to “sudden” OHCA and overall, 54% of OHCA-patients had contacted GP within 2 weeks before the event. This could have implications for developing future strategies for early identification of patients prior to their cardiac arrest. Figure 1. The weekly percentages of contacts to GP (red) and hospital (blue) within one year before OHCA comparing the OHCA cases to the age- and sex-matched control population (N cases = 28,955; N controls = 260,595). Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): European Union's Horizon 2020


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