scholarly journals Potential Impacts of the SARS Outbreak on Taiwan's Economy

2004 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji Chou ◽  
Nai-Fong Kuo ◽  
Su-Ling Peng
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Manufacturing Sectors ◽  
Project Model ◽  
Trade Analysis

In addition to describing the history of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Taiwan, the government's measures to contain the outbreak, and the actual economic impacts of SARS on Taiwan's economy, this paper presents the results of a multiregional computable general equilibrium model (Global Trade Analysis Project model version 6.2) that predicts the outbreak's consequences to 31 service and manufacturing sectors in Taiwan and to the GDP of 16 regions. The results of a short-term outbreak (less than 1 year), taking into account capital accumulation, are compared with those of a longer outbreak (more than 1 year). The losses to GDP are also predicted for the cases in which (1) China provides complete information on its SARS cases and (2) it fails to fully disclose the progress of the outbreak there to the international community. For a short-term outbreak, the simulation predicts losses to GDP of the service and manufacturing sectors of 0.67 percent in Taiwan, 0.20 percent in mainland China, and 1.56 percent in Hong Kong. If SARS is a long-run phenomenon, a lack of transparent disclosure about the progress of SARS on the part of the Chinese authorities could cause an additional 1.6 percent decline in China's GDP, according to the simulation.

Impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on US textile and apparel manufacturing

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2/3) ◽  
pp. 134-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng Lu
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Textile Industry ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Apparel Manufacturing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Textile And Apparel ◽  
New Business ◽  
Trade Analysis

Purpose This study aims to empirically investigate the potential impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on US textile and apparel manufacturing. Design/methodology/approach This study adopts the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model based on the latest GTAP9 database. Findings The findings of the study suggest that: the “yarn-forward” rule will not work effectively in the context of TPP; and the development of Vietnam’s local textile industry is a critical threat to the survival of US textile and apparel (T&A) manufacturing in the long run. Originality/value The findings of the study augment the understanding of the T&A-specific sectoral impact of TPP and address the particular concerns of the US T&A manufacturers with regard to the new business environment and the possible scenarios after the implementation of the agreement.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling of Optimal Measures to Counter Economic Sanctions

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 515-538
Author(s):  
Abdykappar Ashimov ◽  
Yuriy Borovskiy ◽  
Mukhit Onalbekov
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Hypothetical Scenario ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
The Impact

The paper considers the problems of developing recommendations in the area of fiscal and trade policies to counter economic sanctions at the level of both individual countries subject to such sanctions and at the level of economic union including such countries. Research study has been carried out based on the developed dynamic multi-sectoral and multi-country computable general equilibrium model, which describes the functioning of the economies of nine regions of the planet, including five countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The initial data of the model contain built sets of consistent social account matrices (SAMs) for the historical and forecast periods based on data from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, national input-output tables, international trade and IMF data (including forecast) for the main macroeconomic regions indicators. Results of the impact on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators of the EAEU countries and other regions of a hypothetical scenario providing the imposition of additional economic sanctions since 2019 against Russia from some regions were obtained. An approach to solving problems to counter the sanctions policy based on the parametric control theory by setting and solving a number of dynamic optimization problems to determine optimal values of the corresponding fiscal and trade policy instruments at the level of individual EAEU countries and the EAEU as a whole was proposed. The results of the model-based calculations were tested for the possibility of practical application using three approaches, including evaluation mappings’ stability of the exogenous parameters’ values of a calibrated model to the values of its endogenous variables. The results demonstrate greater efficiency for each EAEU country using a coordinated economic policy to counter sanctions, compared with the implementation of such policy separately at the level of each country.

Controlling carbon emissions in China

1999 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 493-518 ◽  
Author(s):  
RICHARD F. GARBACCIO ◽  
MUN S. HO ◽  
DALE W. JORGENSON
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Carbon Taxes ◽  
Dual Nature ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Changing Patterns ◽  
Reduce Emissions

We examine the use of carbon taxes to reduce emissions of CO2 in China. To do so, we develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy. In addition to accounting for the effects of population growth, capital accumulation, technological change, and changing patterns of demand, we also incorporate into our model elements of the dual nature of China's economy where both plan and market institutions exist side by side. We conduct simulations in which carbon emissions are reduced by 5, 10, and 15 per cent from our baseline. After initial declines, in all of our simulations GDP and consumption rapidly exceed baseline levels as the revenue neutral carbon tax serves to transfer income from consumers to producers and then into increased investment. Although subject to a number of caveats, we find potential for what is in some sense a 'double dividend', a decrease in emissions of CO2 and a long run increase in GDP and consumption.

scholarly journals Complementary funded pensions and economic growth: Theoretical and empirical evidence using an overlapping generations model applied to the case of Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (231) ◽  
pp. 59-97
Author(s):  
Houyem Chekki Cherni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Overlapping Generations Model ◽  
Funded Pensions ◽  
Theoretical Results

This paper presents a prospective analysis to guide effective pension reform. Using an overlapping generations model with differing returns on free savings and compulsory returns on funded pensions, we put into perspective the results largely supported in the economic literature that assume that replacing a pay-as-you-go pension scheme by funded plans boosts economic growth. We show that this reform is not necessarily synonymous with economic growth due to a crowding-out effect. Our contribution is not limited to theoretical results: we also assess the impacts empirically. Thus, we extend the theoretical model to take into account several periods and 55 generations. Simulation results, using a dynamic overlapping generations computable general equilibrium model calibrated for the Tunisian case, indicate that whether pension reform promotes capital accumulation and economic growth depends on the rate of return on funded pension savings relative to free savings.

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