scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling of Optimal Measures to Counter Economic Sanctions

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 515-538
Author(s):  
Abdykappar Ashimov ◽  
Yuriy Borovskiy ◽  
Mukhit Onalbekov
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Hypothetical Scenario ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
The Impact

The paper considers the problems of developing recommendations in the area of fiscal and trade policies to counter economic sanctions at the level of both individual countries subject to such sanctions and at the level of economic union including such countries. Research study has been carried out based on the developed dynamic multi-sectoral and multi-country computable general equilibrium model, which describes the functioning of the economies of nine regions of the planet, including five countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The initial data of the model contain built sets of consistent social account matrices (SAMs) for the historical and forecast periods based on data from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, national input-output tables, international trade and IMF data (including forecast) for the main macroeconomic regions indicators. Results of the impact on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators of the EAEU countries and other regions of a hypothetical scenario providing the imposition of additional economic sanctions since 2019 against Russia from some regions were obtained. An approach to solving problems to counter the sanctions policy based on the parametric control theory by setting and solving a number of dynamic optimization problems to determine optimal values of the corresponding fiscal and trade policy instruments at the level of individual EAEU countries and the EAEU as a whole was proposed. The results of the model-based calculations were tested for the possibility of practical application using three approaches, including evaluation mappings’ stability of the exogenous parameters’ values of a calibrated model to the values of its endogenous variables. The results demonstrate greater efficiency for each EAEU country using a coordinated economic policy to counter sanctions, compared with the implementation of such policy separately at the level of each country.

The Impact of the Public Expenditure Cuts Policy on the Labor Market in Vietnam

2012 ◽  
pp. 22-46
Author(s):  
Huong Nguyen Thi Lan ◽  
Toan Pham Ngoc
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Impact Evaluation ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Living Standard ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of public expenditure cuts on employment and income to support policies for the development of the labor mar- ket. Impact evaluation is of interest for policy makers as well as researchers. This paper presents a method – that is based on a Computable General Equilibrium model – to analyse the impact of the public expenditure cuts policy on employment and income in industries and occupations in Vietnam using macro data, the Input output table, 2006, 2008 and the 2010 Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey.

The Impact of Nontariff Trade Policy of European Union Crude Palm Oil Import on Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Rest of the World Economy: An Analysis in GTAP Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-52
Author(s):  
Rozy A. Pratama ◽  
Tri Widodo
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The World ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest producers and exporters of palm oil in the world vegetable oil market. Palm oil and its derivative products are the highest contributors to foreign exchange in 2018. This study aims to analyze the impact of the European Union import non-tariff trade policies on the Indonesian and Malaysian economies The analysis uses the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of world trade on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) program. The results of this study found that the non-tariff import policy by the European Union had a negative impact on the economies of Indonesia and Malaysia. Moreover, the policy also has a negative impact on countries in Southeast Asia and the European Union. This shows that the enactment of non-tariff import trade policies for Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil products has a global impact.

scholarly journals DAMPAK KERJA SAMA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION (EAEU) TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-180
Author(s):  
Deky Paryadi ◽  
Aziza Rahmaniar Salam
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Comparative Advantages ◽  
Vegetable Foodstuffs ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Eurasian Region ◽  
Elimination Scheme

 Abstrak Kawasan Eurasia merupakan wilayah yang penting secara geopolitik dan geostrategi bagi perdagangan Indonesia. Melihat potensi yang dimiliki oleh negara-negara yang tergabung dalam Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Indonesia diharapkan dapat memanfaatkan peluang yang terbuka. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui potensi daya saing komoditas serta dampak kerja sama perdagangan Indonesia-EAEU. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Trade Complementary Index (TCI), Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) dan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model dengan data dasar GTAP versi 9 menggunakan enam simulasi. Berdasarkan analisis TCI, tingkat kesesuaian ekspor EAEU terhadap struktur impor Indonesia lebih tinggi dibandingkan ekspor Indonesia terhadap struktur impor EAEU. Dengan melihat dampak kerja sama perdagangan Indonesia-EAEU terhadap makroekonomi Indonesia, penurunan tarif bea masuk sebesar 50% untuk seluruh produk Indonesia dan EAEU merupakan alternatif kebijakan terbaik. Indonesia perlu menjajaki kemungkinan kerja sama dengan EAEU dengan pendekatan berupa eliminasi 50% pada seluruh pos tarif secara bertahap. Selain itu, disarankan Indonesia fokus pada komoditas yang memiliki daya saing di pasar EAEU yaitu sektor animal; vegetable; foodstuffs; plastics/ rubber; raw hides; woods; textile; stone/glass; machinery; dan transportation.AbstractThe Eurasian region is an important area for Indonesia in term of geopolitic and geostrategy. Due to the economic potential of EAEU countries, Indonesia must take advantage of it. This study aims to determine the potential competitiveness of commodities and the impact of trade cooperation between Indonesia-EAEU. Methods used in this study were Trade Complementary Index (TCI), Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model utilizing basic data of GTAP version 9 of six simulations. By using TCI method it was found that the comformity level of EAEU's export to Indonesia's import structure is higher than Indonesia's exports to the EAEU import structure. Looking at the impact of Indonesia-EAEU trade cooperation on Indonesia’s economy, tariff reduction of 50% for all Indonesian products and EAEU is the best policy alternative for Indonesia. Therefore, It is a must to Indonesia to explore the possibility of cooperation with EAEU with a 50% elimination scheme gradually to all tariff lines. Indonesia should also focus on commodities which have competitiveness in EAEU market i.e. animal; vegetable; foodstuffs; plastics/rubber; raw hides; woods; textile; stone/glass; machinery; and transportation.

scholarly journals The impact of tariff reduction on poverty in Zimbabwe, A CGE top-down approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 102-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Chitiga ◽  
R Mabugu
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Tariff Reduction ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Social Accounting Matrix ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
The Impact

This paper uses a relatively new approach to quantify the effects of trade liberalisation on poverty.  It relies on the combination of a standard, social accounting, matrix-based, computable general equilibrium model and household micro-data. These two tools are used sequentially in order to simulate the impact of trade policy reform.  This framework enables the decomposition of the effects of trade liberalisation, which in turn allows for an analysis of alternative social policy packages.  The methodology is applied to Zimbabwe for illustration.  The results show that poverty is reduced by tariff reduction, although the poor households get the least benefits.

scholarly journals Simulating the Impact of Exogenous Food Price Shock on Agriculture and the Poor in Nigeria: Results from a Computable General Equilibrium Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Nkang Nkang ◽  
Bolarin Omonona ◽  
Suleiman Yusuf ◽  
Omobowale Oni
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Rural South ◽  
Poverty Measures ◽  
Imported Food ◽  
Food Price Shock ◽  
The Impact

<p>Motivated by the recent global economic crisis, this paper simulated the impact of a rise in the price of imported food on agriculture and household poverty in Nigeria using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the Foster, Greer and Thorbecke (FGT) class of decomposable poverty measures on the 2006 social accounting matrix (SAM) of Nigeria and the updated 2004 Nigeria Living Standards Survey (NLSS) data. Results show that a rise in import price of food increased domestic output of food, but reduced the domestic supply of other agricultural commodities as well as food and other agricultural composites. Furthermore, a rise in the import price of food increased poverty nationally and among all household groups, with rural-north households being the least affected by the shock, while their rural-south counterparts were the most affected. A major policy implication drawn from this paper is that high import prices in import competing sectors like agriculture tend to favour the sector but exacerbate poverty in households. Thus, efforts geared at addressing the impact of this shock should strive to balance welfare and efficiency issues.</p>

scholarly journals ASEAN-Kanada Free Trade Agreement (FTA): Peluang Bagi Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Steven Raja Ingot ◽  
Dian Dwi Laksani
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Feasibility Study ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Tariff Reduction ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Trade Facilitation ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

Abstrak Senior Economic Officials Meetings (SEOM) ke-8 di Laos menghasilkan komitmen bersama ASEAN dan Kanada untuk melakukan feasibility study dalam kerangka kerja sama ASEAN-Kanada FTA. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung dampak perjanjian perdagangan barang Indonesia pada ASEAN-Kanada FTA dengan model analisis Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) - Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) dengan Data Base versi 9. Penelitian ini menggunakan tiga simulasi yaitu (1) Indonesia bergabung ASEAN-Kanada FTA dengan penurunan tarif untuk semua komoditi sebesar 90% mengadopsi proposal modalitas ASEAN dalam Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), (2) penurunan tarif sebesar 90% tanpa Indonesia bergabung dalam ASEAN-Kanada FTA, (3) serta peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan hambatan non tarif sebesar 20%. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa dari sisi Makroekonomi Indonesia akan mendapat dampak positif peningkatan GDP sebesar 0,03% jika bergabung dalam ASEAN-Kanada FTA dibandingkan jika tidak bergabung. Indonesia akan mendapat dampak positif lebih besar jika terdapat peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan NTM sebesar 3,35% serta peningkatan investasi sebesar 8,53%. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi, penurunan output dan peningkatan impor didominasi oleh impor bahan baku dan barang modal yang digunakan untuk input industri, sehingga keberadaan impor bahan baku tetap diperlukan. Kajian ini merekomendasikan penurunan tarif, peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan NTM merupakan kebijakan yang sangat diperlukan. Kata Kunci: ASEAN-Kanada FTA, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Perdagangan, Investasi   Abstract At the 8th ASEAN Economic Senior Review Official Meetings (SEOM) in Laos, ASEAN and Canada committed to conduct a feasibility study within the framework of ASEAN-Canada FTA. This study aims to measures the impact of ASEAN-Canada FTA implementation to Indonesia using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – the 9th version of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The study run three different simulations (1) Indonesia joining the ASEAN-Canada with a 90% tariff reduction applied to all goods adopting ASEAN modality in Regional Comprehensice Economic Partnership (RCEP); (2) 90% Tariff reduction without Indonesia joining the ASEAN-Canada FTA, (3) improving trade facilitation and decreasing 20% non-tariff measures. Simulation result shown that from Macroeconomic perspective, Indonesia will get positive impact of increasing 0.03% GDP by joining the FTA instead of not joining. Indonesia will get higher impact by increasing trade facilitation and 8.53% investment and reducing 3.35% of NTM. Based on the results, the declining output and increasing import is dominated by import of raw materials and capital goods, therefore import of raw material remain important. This study recommended reducing tariff and NTM as well as improving trade facilitation are necessary for Indonesia. Keywords: ASEAN-Canada FTA, Economic Growth, Trade, Investment JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15

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