Did the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 Impact Economic Growth in North Africa?

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-455
Author(s):  
Hassan Y. Aly ◽  
Mark C. Strazicich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, we utilize time series tests with structural breaks to test for evidence of an impact on economic growth rates in North African countries following the 2007−2009 U.S. and global financial crisis. One or two breaks in economic growth are identified in each country, except for Morocco where no break is found. However, breaks that coincide with the financial crisis are found in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania), while other breaks coincide most often with earlier U.S. and EU recessions. To further examine the impact of shocks, impulse response functions are estimated from Vector Auto-Regression models with structural breaks. We again find no evidence that shocks from the financial crisis had a significant impact on economic growth in North Africa. We conclude that shocks from the 2007−2009 financial crisis had only a temporary and relatively small impact on economic growth rates in North Africa.

scholarly journals Global Financial Crisis and Africa: Is the Impact Permanent or Transitory? Time Series Evidence from North Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 577-581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Y Aly ◽  
Mark C Strazicich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Global Recession ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

We utilize time series tests with structural breaks to test for an adverse impact on economic growth rates in North Africa associated with the recent US financial crisis and global recession. One or two breaks are identified for each country, except for Morocco where no break is found, while breaks coincide with the 2008 financial crisis in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania). These findings suggest that, in general, shocks from the recent financial crisis have only temporary effects on economic growth in these countries. Impulse response functions with breaks confirm these results. We conclude by suggesting explanations for these findings.

Does regional currency integration ameliorate global macroeconomic shocks in sub-Saharan Africa? The case of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 737-750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory N. Price ◽  
Juliet U. Elu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider whether regional currency integration in sub-Saharan Africa ameliorates global macroeconomic shocks by considering the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis on economic growth. This suggests that Central Africa Franc Zone (CFAZ) eurocurrency union membership amplifies the effects of global business cycles in sub-Saharan Africa. Design/methodology/approach – The authors estimate the parameters of a quantity theory model of economic growth within a Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) Framework. Findings – Parameter estimates from GEE specifications reveal that the contraction in credit during the financial crisis of 2008-2009 had larger adverse growth effects on sub-Saharan African countries who were members of the CFAZ eurocurrency union. The authors also find that sub-Saharan African countries who were members of the CFAZ eurocurrency union were more likely to experience a contraction in credit. Originality/value – As far as the authors can discern, no existing empirical growth models use a GEE framework to estimate parameters of interest. The GEE parameter estimates are distribution-free, robust with respect to unknown forms of heteroskedasticity, and control for a wide variety of error structures that can induce bias in panel data parameter estimates.

scholarly journals Environmental Performance and Economic Growth in Middle East and North Africa Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hichem Dkhili
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Environmental Performance ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
The Impact

Background. Studies on environmental performance/quality and economic growth show inconclusive results. Objective. The aim of the present study is to assess the non-linear relationship between environmental performance and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region from 2002–2018. Methods. A sample of fourteen (14) MENA countries was used in the present analysis. However, due to important differences between countries in this region, the whole sample was divided into two sub-samples; nine Middle Eastern countries (MEAS) and five North African countries (NAF). We performed the panel smooth transition regression model as an econometric approach. Discussion. Empirical results indicate a threshold effect in the environmental performance and economic growth relationship. The threshold value differs from one group of countries to another. More specifically, we found that the impact of environmental performance and economic growth is positive and significant only if a certain threshold level has been attained. Until then, the effect remains negative. Conclusions. The findings of the present study are of great importance for policymakers since they determine the optimal level of environmental performance required to act positively on the level of economic growth. MENA countries should seek to improve their environmental performance index in order to grow output. Competing Interests. The authors declare no competing financial interests.

scholarly journals PENGARUH PENANAMAN MODAL ASING TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Fajar Bimantoro ◽  
Mona Adriana S
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Impact

<em>The present study aimed to analyze the relationship between the level of foreign direct investment to Indonesia's economic growth in the period 1991-2014.Fokus of the present study was to analyze the short-term relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth Indonesia. In addition, along with the financial crisis 2008 global bit much negative of Indonesia affected by the global economic slowdown due to the crisis. This prompted the present study was to also perform forecasting of the impact of global financial crisis on foreign direct investment and relation to economic growth. To answer these questions, this research chose VAR Vector Auto Regression or as a method to answer the research questions. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index, BI rate, and the Exchange Rate, the variables used in this research. The estimation results of the VAR indicate that direct investment from abroad did not have an impact on economic growth in the long term but has a strong bond in the short term against the growth of economics. This indicates that foreign investment into Indonesia increasingly quality in promoting economic growth. In addition, the results of forecasting using impulse response function indicates there will be the tendency of a decrease in the level of foreign direct investment and economic growth in Indonesia.</em>

scholarly journals GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH : EVIDENCE FROM EAST ASIAN ECONOMIES

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-54
Author(s):  
Arisyi F. Raz ◽  
Tamarind P. K. Indra ◽  
Dea K. Artikasih ◽  
Syalinda Citra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
East Asian Economies ◽  
The Impact

As economies become more integrated in the midst of globalization, financial crisis that occurs in one country can easily transmit to other countries, becoming global financial catastrophe in a short period of time. In such event, strong economic fundamentals are particularly important to defend a country from the contagious effect of the crisis. As evidence, due to the fragile economic fundamentals and lacking government credibility, East Asian economies were easily attacked by the crisis in 1997 once the sentiment deteriorated. Nevertheless, the region had learned its lessons in 1997 thereby proofing its resilience in facing the global financial crisis that struck in 2008 by improving its economic fundamentals as well as policymakers’ credibility. This paper starts with theories on economic growth and financial crisis. Further, it empirically examines to what extent the financial crises in 1997 and 2008 affect East Asian economies by using panel data econometrics. The evidence shows that, even though both crises have contributed adverse impacts on East Asian economies, the magnitude of the 2008 crisis was relatively less severe than that in 1997. Finally, this study also provides further discussions regarding how East Asian economies had successfully minimized the impact of the global crisis in 2008. Keywords: Global Financial Crises; East Asian Economies; Economic Growth;Financial Market; Random and Fixed EffectsJEL Classification: C330, E440, G010

scholarly journals Structural Breaks and Volatility Spillover in South Asian Economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-77
Author(s):  
Hafiz Rauf Iqbal ◽  
Syed Kashif Saeed ◽  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
The Impact

Purpose - This study examines the volatility spillovers in the presence of structural breaks with specific reference to South Asian Capital markets. The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 has compelled policymakers to realize that financial instability has the potential to threaten economic stability and growth; therefore, managing the financial crisis is inevitable. To manage the impact of financial crises, understanding the dynamics of volatility spillover across various markets is imperative. This study has investigated the possible emergence of structural breaks in risk patterns after global financial crises in south Asian markets. Methodology - Using the data from July 2002 to June 2016, employing the Exponential GARCH methodology. Findings - This study finds a significant volatility spillover after the financial crisis of 2007-09. Therefore, the existence of a structural break in the risk pattern of south Asian capital markets cannot be fully rejected. Policy Implications - This conclusion is of prime importance to policymakers in devising policy guidelines concerning financial crises.

scholarly journals Pooled Mean Group Approach to Test the Determinants of Financial Integration: Evidence From OECD and G20 Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 366
Author(s):  
Ahliman Abbasov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the role of financial liberalization, trade integration, economic growth and global financial crisis on financial integration level of selected OECD and G20 countries during the period of 2000-2016. PMG technique has been implemented to estimate the ARDL model. Regression results suggest a statistically significant long run co-integration relationship between financial integration and independent variables. Analysis also concludes that there are both long run and short run positive impact of trade integration level on financial integration level. The study also concludes that the global financial crisis has had a negative influence on global financial integration both in the short run and long run. But according to the regression results the impact of financial liberalization on the actual financial integration level of the countries only appears in the long run. Results also indicate that positive impact of economic growth on financial globalization level appears only in the long run.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Co-Integration Relationship between Reit and Stock Markets: A Dynamic Co-Integration Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 86
Author(s):  
S. Aydin Yüksel ◽  
Asli Yüksel ◽  
Ümit Erol ◽  
Hakki Öztürk
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Main Tool ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Integration Approach ◽  
Variable Nature ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the co-integration relationship between the REIT and stock market indices using a sample of 10 developed countries. The main tool employed for this purpose is the dynamic co-integration approach. The empirical results strongly suggest that the stock and REIT markets were deeply affected by two successive crises. The first crisis was related to the U.S. subprime problems while the second shock emanated from the European insolvency problems. The shocks led to serious structural breaks in the financial data during the 2007-2012 period. As a result of this and the highly variable nature of the co-integration structure during this period, the conventional and static Johansen tests cannot detect the strong co-integration between the REIT and stock markets which were the result of common negative response of both markets to the successive shocks. Dynamic co-integration approach seems to be a more valid tool to capture the dynamics of the co-integration structure after the GFC. The dynamic approach implies that the destruction of diversification benefits between the REIT and stock markets was essentially a shock related outcome which also implies that the diversification potential between these two markets may still be valid in the absence of shocks.

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