Great Plains Precipitation and Its SST Links in Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations, and Twenty-First- and Twenty-Second-Century Climate Projections

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (23) ◽  
pp. 6409-6429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas ◽  
Sumant Nigam
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Second Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The present work assesses spring and summer precipitation over North America as well as summer precipitation variability over the central United States and its SST links in simulations of the twentieth-century climate and projections of the twenty-first- and twenty-second-century climates for the A1B scenario. The observed spatial structure of spring and summer precipitation poses a challenge for models, particularly over the western and central United States. Tendencies in spring precipitation in the twenty-first century agree with the observed ones at the end of the twentieth century over a wetter north-central and a drier southwestern United States, and a drier southeastern Mexico. Projected wetter springs over the Great Plains in the twenty-first and twenty-second centuries are associated with an increase in the number of extreme springs. In contrast, projected summer tendencies have demonstrated little consistency. The associated observed changes in SSTs bear the global warming footprint, which is not well captured in the twentieth-century climate simulations. Precipitation variability over the Great Plains presents a coherent picture in spring but not in summer. Models project an increase in springtime precipitation variability owing to an increased number of extreme springs. The number of extreme droughty (pluvial) events during the spring–fall part of the year is under(over)estimated in the twentieth century without consistent projections. Summer precipitation variability over the Great Plains is linked to SSTs over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, with no apparent ENSO link in spite of the exaggerated variability in the equatorial Pacific in climate simulations; this has been identified already in observations and atmospheric models forced with historical SSTs. This link is concealed due to the increased warming in the twenty-first century. Deficiencies in land surface–atmosphere interactions and global teleconnections in the climate models prevent them from a better portrayal of summer precipitation variability in the central United States.

scholarly journals Comparing Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Patterns of Interannual Precipitation Variability over the Western United States and Northern Mexico*

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 366-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler W. Ruff ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir ◽  
Richard Seager
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
First Century ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Spatial Structures ◽  
Northern Mexico ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The ability of coupled climate models to simulate the patterns of interannual precipitation variability over the western half of the United States and northern Mexico is investigated by applying principal component analysis to observations and model output. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) observations are compared to the pooled twentieth-century warm- and cold-season precipitation averages simulated by five coupled global climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. The pooled model spatial structures (EOFs) closely match those of the GPCC observations for both halves of the year. Additionally, the twenty-first-century model pooled EOFs are almost identical in spatial extent and amplitude to their twentieth-century counterparts. Thus, the spatial characteristics of large-scale precipitation variability in the western United States are not projected to change in the twenty-first century. When global observed and modeled seasonally averaged sea surface temperature anomalies are correlated with the time series corresponding to the three leading EOFs to discern sources of each mode of precipitation variability, a pattern reminiscent of El Niño is found to be the only significant association. The spatial structures of variability also appear independent of the model-predicted precipitation trend over the twenty-first century, indicating that the mechanisms responsible for the trend are different from those associated with interannual variability. The results of this study lend confidence in the pooled model predictions of seasonal precipitation patterns, and they suggest that future changes will primarily result from the contribution of the mean trend over which statistically stationary interannual variability is superimposed.

Rewriting the Captivity Narrative for Contemporary Children: Speare, Bruchac, and the French and Indian War

2011 ◽  
Vol 84 (2) ◽  
pp. 318-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara L. Schwebel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Captivity Narratives ◽  
French And Indian War ◽  
Captivity Narrative ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Anglo American ◽  
Indian War ◽  
War Stories

Juxtaposing the French and Indian War stories of Elizabeth George Speare, a mid-twentieth- century Anglo-American children's author, against those of Joseph Bruchac, a twenty-first- century Abenaki children's author, reveals how flexible and powerful captivity narratives have been in shaping arguments about gender, nationhood, citizenship, and land in the postwar United States.

IPCC’s Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations: Varied Representations of North American Hydroclimate Variability

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 4041-4058 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas ◽  
Sumant Nigam
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
North American ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The annual cycle of precipitation and the interannual variability of the North American hydroclimate during summer months are analyzed in coupled simulations of the twentieth-century climate. The state-of-the-art general circulation models, participating in the Fourth Assessment Report for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), included in the present study are the U.S. Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model version EH (GISS-EH), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1); the Met Office’s Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (UKMO-HadCM3); and the Japanese Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3.2 [MIROC3.2(hires)]. Datasets with proven high quality such as NCEP’s North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.–Mexico precipitation analysis are used as targets for simulations. Climatological precipitation is not easily simulated. While models capture winter precipitation very well over the U.S. northwest, they encounter failure over the U.S. southeast in the same season. Summer precipitation over the central United States and Mexico is also a great challenge for models, particularly the timing. In general the UKMO-HadCM3 is closest to the observations. The models’ potential in simulating interannual hydroclimate variability over North America during the warm season is varied and limited to the central United States. Models like PCM, and in particular UKMO-HadCM3, exhibit reasonably well the observed distribution and relative importance of remote and local contributions to precipitation variability over the region (i.e., convergence of remote moisture fluxes dominate over local evapotranspiration). However, in models like CCSM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 local contributions dominate over remote ones, in contrast with warm-season observations. In the other extreme are models like GISS-EH and MIROC3.2(hires) that prioritize the remote influence of moisture fluxes and neglect the local influence of land surface processes to the regional precipitation variability.

America's Pragmatic Role?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Avant
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
International Relations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Leadership ◽  
First Century ◽  
Global Leader ◽  
The Future ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract What has made the United States a global leader? Though analysts often attribute American success to a combination of resources and ideas, a subtle undercurrent in these arguments points to pragmatism and the creativity it often generates as an important part of the story. First theorized by American philosophers in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, pragmatism emphasizes that creativity can reshape how we see norms and interests to make cooperation more likely. After discussing the basic elements of pragmatism and its intersection with prominent international relations arguments, I show how the creativity that pragmatism envisions appears in each of these books. Though the collected authors do not label themselves as pragmatists, piecing these pragmatic elements together demonstrates the importance of creativity for key global leadership moments in the twentieth century, as well as important, if under-appreciated, governance innovations in the twenty-first century. It also offers insights into how the United States might move into the future.

SST–North American Hydroclimate Links in AMIP Simulations of the Drought Working Group Models: A Proxy for the Idealized Drought Modeling Experiments

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 2585-2598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas ◽  
Sumant Nigam
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Working Group ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Model Experiments

Abstract The present study assesses the potential of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group (DWG) models in simulating interannual precipitation variability over North America, especially the Great Plains. It also provides targets for the idealized DWG model experiments investigating drought origin. The century-long Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations produced by version 3.5 of NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.5), the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory’s Community Climate Model (CCM3), and NASA’s Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric models are analyzed; CCM3 and NSIPP-1 models have 16- and 14-ensemble simulations, respectively, while CAM3.5 only has 1. The standard deviation of summer precipitation is different in AMIP simulations. The maximum over the central United States seen in observations is placed farther to the west in simulations. Over the central plains the models exhibit modest skill in simulating low-frequency precipitation variability, a Palmer drought severity index proxy. The presence of a linear trend increases correlations in the period 1950–99 when compared with those for the whole century. The SST links of the Great Plains drought index have features in common with observations over both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Interestingly, summer-to-fall precipitation regressions of the warm Trend, cold Pacific, and warm Atlantic modes of annual mean SST variability (used in forcing the DWG idealized model experiments) tend to dry the southwestern, midwestern, and southeastern regions of the United States in the observations and, to a lesser extent, in the simulations. The similarity of the idealized SST-forced droughts in DWG modeling experiments with AMIP precipitation regressions of the corresponding SST principal components, evident especially in the case of the cold Pacific pattern, suggests that the routinely conducted AMIP simulations could have served as an effective proxy for the more elaborated suite of DWG modeling experiments.

A Comparative Study of Precipitation and Evaporation between CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Model Ensembles in Semiarid Regions

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3731-3749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noel C. Baker ◽  
Huei-Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Negative Trend ◽  
First Century ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
Semiarid Regions ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Model Ensembles

Abstract The twentieth-century climatology and twenty-first-century trend in precipitation P, evaporation E, and P − E for selected semiarid U.S. Southwest and Mediterranean regions are compared between ensembles from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The twentieth-century simulations are validated with precipitation from observation and evaporation from reanalysis. It is found that the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B simulations in CMIP3 and the simulations with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 in CMIP5 produce qualitatively similar seasonal cycles of the twenty-first-century trend in P − E for both semiarid regions. For the southwestern United States, it is characterized by a strong drying trend in spring, a weak moistening trend in summer, a weak drying trend in winter, and an overall drying trend for the annual mean. For the Mediterranean region, a drying trend is simulated for all seasons with an October maximum and July minimum. The consistency between CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios indicates that the simulated trend is robust; however, while the trend in P − E is negative in spring for the southwestern United States for all CMIP ensembles, CMIP3 predicts a strongly negative trend in P and minor negative trend in E whereas both CMIP5 scenarios predict a nearly zero trend in P and positive trend in E. For the twentieth-century simulations, the P, E, and P − E of the two model ensembles are statistically indistinguishable for most seasons. This “stagnation” of the simulated climatology from CMIP3 to CMIP5 implies that the hydroclimatic variable biases have not decreased in the newer generation of models. Notably, over the southwestern United States the CMIP3 models produce too much precipitation in the cold season. This bias remains almost unchanged in CMIP5.

From Vidocq to the Locked Room

2020 ◽  
pp. 163-178
Author(s):  
Stephen Knight
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
International Development ◽  
The United States ◽  
Crime Fiction ◽  
First Century ◽  
Transnational Mobility ◽  
Legal Narratives ◽  
History Of ◽  
Twenty First Century

This chapter provides an in-depth history of the international development of the crime genre prior to the twentieth century. The chapter traces the emergence of a transnational genre from the 1700s through legal narratives and Romantic preoccupations and aesthetics in France, Germany, England, the United States, the Scandinavian countries and Australia. While crime fiction scholars have traditionally maintained that the genre emerged in Britain and America, this chapter places doubt on the supposed centrality of the genre’s British and American genealogy. By examining the genre’s early transnational mobility, the chapter challenges the dominant perception that the genre’s transnationality is a consequence of twentieth- and twenty-first-century globalization and, as such, that it is largely a contemporary phenomenon.

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