Understanding User Decision Making and the Value of Improved Precipitation Forecasts: Lessons From a Case Study

A case study of the impact of improved precipitation forecasts on the snow-fighting operations of the New York State Thruway is reported. The goal was to use currently available data and literature on forecast process, communication, and use in conjunction with observations and interviews with key decision makers to derive a model that yields estimates of value to users based on a model of their decision processes rather than an optimal decision-making model. That goal proved too ambitious due to limitations in available data. A major lesson learned from this research is the importance of improved, ongoing data collection to support studies of use and value of weather information. A more holistic approach to understanding and realizing forecast value is needed, that is, one in which information (both of forecast skill and usage) centered on the decision process is collected in a much more intensive manner than is presently the case.

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An optimal decision making model for supporting week hospital management

Health Care Management Science ◽

10.1007/s10729-010-9144-5 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 74-88 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Domenico Conforti ◽

Francesca Guerriero ◽

Rosita Guido ◽

Marco Matucci Cerinic ◽

Maria Letizia Conforti

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Hospital Management ◽

Optimal Decision ◽

Optimal Decision Making ◽

Decision Making Model

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Model Analysis of Optimal Pollution Tax under Environment Rent Philosophy

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.524-527.3411 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 524-527 ◽

pp. 3411-3415

Author(s):

Miao Sheng Chen ◽

Hui Ling Lu

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Mathematical Models ◽

Model Analysis ◽

Optimal Decision ◽

Pollution Tax ◽

Mathematical Equations ◽

Pollution Taxation ◽

Optimal Decision Making ◽

The Impact

This paper uses the concept of environment rent philosophy to explain rationale for government taxation and principles of taxation, and uses mathematical models to specifically discuss practical problems of government pollution taxation under this philosophy. The model provides mathematical equations for optimal decision-making by consumers, producers, and government and analyzes the impact of changes in taxation rates on the three parties.

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Optimal Decision Making in Electrical Systems Using an Asset Risk Management Framework

Energies ◽

10.3390/en14164987 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (16) ◽

pp. 4987

Author(s):

David L. Alvarez ◽

Diego F. Rodriguez ◽

Alben Cardenas ◽

F. Faria da da Silva ◽

Claus Leth Leth Bak ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Monte Carlo ◽

Power Transformer ◽

Risk Index ◽

Mathematical Optimization ◽

Optimal Decision ◽

Health Index ◽

Electrical Systems ◽

Optimal Decision Making ◽

The Impact

In this paper, a methodology for optimal decision making for electrical systems is addressed. This methodology seeks to identify and to prioritize the replacement and maintenance of a power asset fleet optimizing the return of investment. It fulfills this objective by considering the risk index, the replacement and maintenance costs, and the company revenue. The risk index is estimated and predicted for each asset using both its condition records and by evaluating the consequence of its failure. The condition is quantified as the probability of failure of the asset, and the consequence is determined by the impact of the asset failure on the whole system. Failure probability is estimated using the health index as scoring of asset condition. The consequence is evaluated considering a failure impact on the objectives of reliability (energy not supplied -ENS), environment, legality, and finance using Monte Carlo simulations for an assumed period of planning. Finally, the methodology was implemented in an open-source library called PywerAPM for assessing optimal decisions, where the proposed mathematical optimization problem is solved. As a benchmark, the power transformer fleet of the New England IEEE 39 Bus System was used. Condition records were provided by a local utility to compute the health index of each transformer. Subsequently, a Monte Carlo contingency simulation was performed to estimate the energy not supplied for a period of analysis of 10 years. As a result, the fleet is ranked according to risk index, and the optimal replacement and maintenance are estimated for the entire fleet.

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Optimal decision making model for GENCO under the Emission Trading Scheme

2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting ◽

10.1109/pesgm.2012.6345267 ◽

2012 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

X. R. Li ◽

C. W. Yu ◽

F. J. Luo ◽

S. R. Ren ◽

Z. Y. Dong ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Emission Trading ◽

Optimal Decision ◽

Emission Trading Scheme ◽

Trading Scheme ◽

Optimal Decision Making ◽

Decision Making Model

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Decision-Making Based on Consumers’ Perceived Value in Different Remanufacturing Modes

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society ◽

10.1155/2015/278210 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2015 ◽

pp. 1-8 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Wei Li ◽

Hang Wu ◽

Liurui Deng

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

New Products ◽

Perceived Value ◽

Third Party ◽

Noncooperative Game ◽

Optimal Decision ◽

Negative Effect ◽

Optimal Decision Making ◽

Decision Making Model ◽

Positive Effect

We investigate how the diversity of consumers’ perceived value in different remanufacturing modes affects remanufacturing decision-making. We establish a two-stage optimal decision-making model of original equipment manufacturer (OEM) remanufacturing and a noncooperative game model of third party remanufacturer (TPR) remanufacturing and then analyze the optimal decisions of OEM and TPR. Comparing the effects of consumers’ perceived value on remanufacturing decision-making in different modes, we find that when OEM remanufactures products, consumers’ perceived value has a negative effect on new products’ price and quantity and has a positive effect on remanufactured products’ quantity and when TPR remanufactures products, consumers’ perceived value has a positive effect on new products price and quantity and has a negative effect on remanufactured products’ quantity. Compared with OEM remanufacturing, TPR remanufacturing can raise the profits of OEM and whole closed-loop supply chain, but it will lower the quantity of remanufacturing products.

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