Potential for ground-based glaciogenic cloud seeding over mountains in the interior western United States, and anticipated changes in a warmer climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas O. Mazzetti ◽  
Bart Geerts ◽  
Lulin Xue ◽  
Sarah Tessendorf ◽  
Courtney Weeks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Supercooled Liquid ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Cloud Seeding ◽  
Orographic Clouds

AbstractGlaciogenic cloud seeding has long been practiced as a way to increase water availability in arid regions, such as the interior western United States. Many seeding programs in this region target cold–season orographic clouds with ground–based silver iodide generators. Here, the “seedability” (defined as the fraction of time conditions are suitable for ground–based seeding) is evaluated in this region, based on 10 years of hourly output from a regional climate model with a horizontal resolution of 4 km. Seedability criteria are based on temperature, presence of supercooled liquid water, and Froude number, which is computed here as a continuous field relative to the local terrain. The model’s supercooled liquid water compares reasonably well against microwave radiometer observations.Seedability peaks at 20–30% for many mountain ranges in the cold season, with the best locations just upwind of crests, over the highest terrain in Colorado and Wyoming, as well as over ranges in the Northwest Interior. Mountains further south are less frequently seedable, due to warmer conditions, but when they are, cloud supercooled liquid water content tends to be relatively high.This analysis is extended into a future climate, anticipated for later this century, with a mean temperature 2.0 K warmer than the historical climate. Seedability generally will be lower in this future warmer climate, especially in the most seedable areas, but when seedable, clouds tend to contain slightly more supercooled liquid water.

Mobile Microwave Radiometer Observations: Spatial Characteristics of Supercooled Cloud Water and Cloud Seeding Implications

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 432-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arlen W. Huggins
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Particle Growth ◽  
Supercooled Liquid ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Stable Conditions ◽  
Research Aircraft ◽  
Orographic Clouds ◽  
Liquid Depth ◽  
Windward Slope

Abstract Previous studies of the spatial distribution of supercooled liquid water in winter storms over mountainous terrain were performed primarily with instrumented aircraft and to a lesser extent with scans from a stationary microwave radiometer. The present work describes a new technique of mobile radiometer operation that was successfully used during numerous winter storms that occurred over the Wasatch Plateau of central Utah to determine the integrated depth of cloud liquid water relative to horizontal position on the mountain barrier. The technique had the advantage of being able to measure total liquid from the terrain upward, without the usual terrain avoidance problems that research aircraft face in cloudy conditions. The radiometer also collected data during several storms in which a research aircraft could not be operated because of severe turbulence and icing conditions. Repeated radiometer transects of specific regions of the plateau showed significant variability in liquid water depth over 30–60-min time periods, but also revealed that the profile of orographically generated cloud liquid was consistent, regardless of the absolute quantities. Radiometer liquid depth generally increased across the windward slope of the plateau to a peak near the western edge of the plateau top and then decreased across the relatively flat top of the plateau. These observations were consistent with regions where maximum and minimum vertical velocities were expected, and with depiction of cloud liquid by accretional ice particle growth across the mountain barrier. A comparison of data from the mobile radiometer and a stationary radiometer verified the general decrease in liquid depth from the windward slope to the top of the plateau and also showed that many liquid water regions were transient mesoscale features that moved across the plateau. Implications of the results, relative to the seeding of orographic clouds, were that seeding aerosols released from valley-based generators could at times be inhibited by stable conditions from reaching appropriate super-cooled liquid water regions and, as found by others, the region of cloud most likely to be encountered by an AgI seeding agent released from the ground was also relatively warm compared to the ice-forming capability of the particular agent used in these experiments. Also, one convective case study that exhibited relatively warm temperatures in the cloud layer indicated that, even in conditions that permit vertical transport to supercooled liquid zones, sufficient time for ice particle growth and fallout from seeded plumes on this plateau may be lacking.

scholarly journals A Case Study of Cloud Radar Observations and Large-Eddy Simulations of a Shallow Stratiform Orographic Cloud, and the Impact of Glaciogenic Seeding

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (5) ◽  
pp. 1285-1304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Chu ◽  
Bart Geerts ◽  
Lulin Xue ◽  
Binod Pokharel
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Supercooled Liquid ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Blowing Snow ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
Orographic Clouds ◽  
Glaciogenic Seeding ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe impact of glaciogenic seeding on precipitation remains uncertain, mainly because of the noisy nature of precipitation. Operational seeding programs often target cold-season orographic clouds because of their abundance of supercooled liquid water. Such clouds are complicated because of common natural seeding from above (seeder–feeder effect) or from below (blowing snow). Here, observations, mainly from a profiling airborne Doppler radar, and numerical simulations are used to examine the impact of glaciogenic seeding on a very shallow (<1 km), largely blocked cloud that is not naturally seeded from aloft or from below. This cloud has limited but persistent supercooled liquid water, a cloud-base (top) temperature of −12°C (−16°C), and produces only very light snowfall naturally. A Weather Research and Forecasting Model large-eddy simulation at 100-m resolution captures the observed upstream stability and wind profiles and reproduces the essential characteristics of the orographic flow, cloud, and precipitation. Both observations and simulations indicate that seeding locally increases radar (or computed) reflectivity in the target area, even after removal of the natural trend between these two periods in a nearby control region. A model sensitivity run suggests that seeding effectively glaciates the mostly liquid cloud and substantially increases snowfall within the seeding plume. This is due to a dramatic increase in the number of ice particles and not to their size. The increased ice particle concentration facilitates snow growth by vapor deposition in a cloud the temperature range of which is conducive to the Bergeron process.

scholarly journals Seedability of Winter Orographic Clouds

1986 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 127-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey E. Hill
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Supercooled Liquid ◽  
Direct Measurements ◽  
Orographic Clouds ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Increasing Precipitation ◽  
Cloud Top Temperature ◽  
Limiting Value

Abstract This article is a review of work on the subject of seedability of winter orographic clouds for increasing precipitation. Various aspects of seedability are examined in the review, including definitions, distribution of supercooled liquid water, related meteorological factors, relationship of supercooled liquid water to storm stage, factors governing seedability, and the use of seeding criteria. Of particular interest is the conclusion that seedability is greatest when supercooled liquid water concentrations are large and at the same time precipitation rates are small. Such a combination of conditions is favored if the cloud-top temperature is warmer than a limiting value and as the cross-barrier wind speed at mountaintop levels increases. It is also suggested that cloud seeding is best initiated in accordance with direct measurements of supercooled liquid water, precipitation, and cross-barrier wind speed. However, in forecasting these conditions or in continuation of seeding previously initiated, the cloud-top temperature and cross-barrier wind speed are the most useful quantities.

scholarly journals Detection and Attribution of Streamflow Timing Changes to Climate Change in the Western United States

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (13) ◽  
pp. 3838-3855 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. G. Hidalgo ◽  
T. Das ◽  
M. D. Dettinger ◽  
D. R. Cayan ◽  
D. W. Pierce ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Detection And Attribution

Abstract This article applies formal detection and attribution techniques to investigate the nature of observed shifts in the timing of streamflow in the western United States. Previous studies have shown that the snow hydrology of the western United States has changed in the second half of the twentieth century. Such changes manifest themselves in the form of more rain and less snow, in reductions in the snow water contents, and in earlier snowmelt and associated advances in streamflow “center” timing (the day in the “water-year” on average when half the water-year flow at a point has passed). However, with one exception over a more limited domain, no other study has attempted to formally attribute these changes to anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the observations together with a set of global climate model simulations and a hydrologic model (applied to three major hydrological regions of the western United States—the California region, the upper Colorado River basin, and the Columbia River basin), it is found that the observed trends toward earlier “center” timing of snowmelt-driven streamflows in the western United States since 1950 are detectably different from natural variability (significant at the p &lt; 0.05 level). Furthermore, the nonnatural parts of these changes can be attributed confidently to climate changes induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, and land use. The signal from the Columbia dominates the analysis, and it is the only basin that showed a detectable signal when the analysis was performed on individual basins. It should be noted that although climate change is an important signal, other climatic processes have also contributed to the hydrologic variability of large basins in the western United States.

scholarly journals Verification of Surface Temperature Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database over the Western United States

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 869-892 ◽  
Author(s):  
David T. Myrick ◽  
John D. Horel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
Mean Square Errors

Abstract Experimental gridded forecasts of surface temperature issued by National Weather Service offices in the western United States during the 2003/04 winter season (18 November 2003–29 February 2004) are evaluated relative to surface observations and gridded analyses. The 5-km horizontal resolution gridded forecasts issued at 0000 UTC for forecast lead times at 12-h intervals from 12 to 168 h were obtained from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Forecast accuracy and skill are determined relative to observations at over 3000 locations archived by MesoWest. Forecast quality is also determined relative to Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyses at 20-km resolution that are interpolated to the 5-km NDFD grid as well as objective analyses obtained from the Advanced Regional Prediction System Data Assimilation System that rely upon the MesoWest observations and RUC analyses. For the West as a whole, the experimental temperature forecasts issued at 0000 UTC during the 2003/04 winter season exhibit skill at lead times of 12, 24, 36, and 48 h on the basis of several verification approaches. Subgrid-scale temperature variations and observational and analysis errors undoubtedly contribute some uncertainty regarding these results. Even though the “true” values appropriate to evaluate the forecast values on the NDFD grid are unknown, it is estimated that the root-mean-square errors of the NDFD temperature forecasts are on the order of 3°C at lead times shorter than 48 h and greater than 4°C at lead times longer than 120 h. However, such estimates are derived from only a small fraction of the NDFD grid boxes. Incremental improvements in forecast accuracy as a result of forecaster adjustments to the 0000 UTC temperature grids from 144- to 24-h lead times are estimated to be on the order of 13%.

scholarly journals CO2 Sensitivity of Extreme Climate Events in the Western United States

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (15) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason L. Bell ◽  
Lisa C. Sloan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract Based upon trends in observed climate, extreme events are thought to be increasing in frequency and/or magnitude. This change in extreme events is attributed to enhancement of the hydrologic cycle caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Results are presented of relatively long (50 yr) regional climate model simulations of the western United States examining the sensitivity of climate and extreme events to a doubling of preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These results indicate a shift in the temperature distribution, resulting in fewer cold days and more hot days; the largest changes occur at high elevations. The rainfall distribution is also affected; total rain increases as a result of increases in rainfall during the spring season and at higher elevations. The risk of flooding is generally increased, as is the severity of droughts and heat waves. These results, combined with results of decreased snowpack and increased evaporation, could further stress the water supply of the western United States.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document