DART/CAM: An Ensemble Data Assimilation System for CESM Atmospheric Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (18) ◽  
pp. 6304-6317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Raeder ◽  
Jeffrey L. Anderson ◽  
Nancy Collins ◽  
Timothy J. Hoar ◽  
Jennifer E. Kay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Large Set ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Ensemble Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Data ◽  
Atmospheric Forcings

Abstract The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) has been interfaced to the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community facility for ensemble data assimilation. This provides a large set of data assimilation tools for climate model research and development. Aspects of the interface to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) software are discussed and a variety of applications are illustrated, ranging from model development to the production of long series of analyses. CAM output is compared directly to real observations from platforms ranging from radiosondes to global positioning system satellites. Such comparisons use the temporally and spatially heterogeneous analysis error estimates available from the ensemble to provide very specific forecast quality evaluations. The ability to start forecasts from analyses, which were generated by CAM on its native grid and have no foreign model bias, contributed to the detection of a code error involving Arctic sea ice and cloud cover. The potential of parameter estimation is discussed. A CAM ensemble reanalysis has been generated for more than 15 yr. Atmospheric forcings from the reanalysis were required as input to generate an ocean ensemble reanalysis that provided initial conditions for decadal prediction experiments. The software enables rapid experimentation with differing sets of observations and state variables, and the comparison of different models against identical real observations, as illustrated by a comparison of forecasts initialized by interpolated ECMWF analyses and by DART/CAM analyses.

scholarly journals The Land Variational Ensemble Data Assimilation Framework: LAVENDAR v1.0.0

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewan Pinnington ◽  
Tristan Quaife ◽  
Amos Lawless ◽  
Karina Williams ◽  
Tim Arkebauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Maize Crop ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Ensemble Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Data

Abstract. The Land Variational Ensemble Data Assimilation Framework (LAVENDAR) implements the method of four-dimensional ensemble variational (4D-En-Var) data assimilation (DA) for land surface models. Four-dimensional ensemble variational data assimilation negates the often costly calculation of a model adjoint required by traditional variational techniques (such as 4D-Var) for optimizing parameters or state variables over a time window of observations. In this paper we present the first application of LAVENDAR, implementing the framework with the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. We show that the system can recover seven parameters controlling crop behaviour in a set of twin experiments. We run the same experiments at the Mead continuous maize FLUXNET site in Nebraska, USA, to show the technique working with real data. We find that the system accurately captures observations of leaf area index, canopy height and gross primary productivity after assimilation and improves posterior estimates of the amount of harvestable material from the maize crop by 74 %. LAVENDAR requires no modification to the model that it is being used with and is hence able to keep up to date with model releases more easily than other DA methods.

scholarly journals Initial Conditions for Convective-Scale Ensemble Forecasting Provided by Ensemble Data Assimilation

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (5) ◽  
pp. 1583-1600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Harnisch ◽  
Christian Keil
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Data ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract A kilometer-scale ensemble data assimilation system (KENDA) based on a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) has been developed for the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) limited-area model. The data assimilation system provides an analysis ensemble that can be used to initialize ensemble forecasts at a horizontal grid resolution of 2.8 km. Convective-scale ensemble forecasts over Germany using ensemble initial conditions derived by the KENDA system are evaluated and compared to operational forecasts with downscaled initial conditions for a short summer period during June 2012. The choice of the inflation method applied in the LETKF significantly affects the ensemble analysis and forecast. Using a multiplicative background covariance inflation does not produce enough spread in the analysis ensemble leading to a degradation of the ensemble forecasts. Inflating the analysis ensemble instead by either multiplicative analysis covariance inflation or relaxation inflation methods enhances the analysis spread and is able to provide initial conditions that produce more consistent ensemble forecasts. The forecast quality for short forecast lead times up to 3 h is improved, and 21-h forecasts also benefit from the increased spread. Doubling the ensemble size has not only a clear positive impact on the analysis but also on the short-term ensemble forecasts, while a simple representation of model error perturbing parameters of the model physics has only a small impact. Precipitation and surface wind speed ensemble forecasts using the high-resolution KENDA-derived initial conditions are competitive compared to the operationally used downscaled initial conditions.

scholarly journals Ensemble data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 119 (16) ◽  
pp. 9793-9809 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. M. Pedatella ◽  
K. Raeder ◽  
J. L. Anderson ◽  
H.-L. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Community Climate Model ◽  
Ensemble Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Data ◽  
Community Climate

scholarly journals The Land Variational Ensemble Data Assimilation fRamework: LaVEnDAR

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewan Pinnington ◽  
Tristan Quaife ◽  
Amos Lawless ◽  
Karina Williams ◽  
Tim Arkebauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Maize Crop ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Ensemble Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Data

Abstract. The Land Variational Ensemble Data Assimilation fRamework (LaVEnDAR) implements the method of Four-Dimensional Ensemble Variational data assimilation for land surface models. Four-Dimensional Ensemble Variational data assimilation negates the often costly calculation of a model adjoint required by traditional variational techniques (such as 4DVar) for optimising parameters/state variables over a time window of observations. In this paper we implement LaVEnDAR with the JULES land surface model. We show the system can recover seven parameters controlling crop behaviour in a set of twin experiments. We run the same experiments at the Mead continuous maize FLUXNET site in Nebraska, USA to show the technique working with real data. We find that the system accurately captures observations of leaf area index, canopy height and gross primary productivity after assimilation and improves posterior estimates of the amount of harvestable material from the maize crop by 74 %. LaVEnDAR requires no modification to the model that it is being used with and is hence able to keep up to date with model releases more easily than other data assimilation methods.

Initiation of ensemble data assimilation

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Zupanski ◽  
S. J. Fletcher ◽  
I. M. Navon ◽  
B. Uzunoglu ◽  
R. P. Heikes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Data

Using a machine learning proxy for localization in ensemble data assimilation

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 931-944
Author(s):  
Johann M. Lacerda ◽  
Alexandre A. Emerick ◽  
Adolfo P. Pires
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Data

Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter: Theoretical Aspects

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (6) ◽  
pp. 1710-1726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milija Zupanski
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Cost Function ◽  
Ensemble Data Assimilation ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Ensemble Data ◽  
Analysis Error ◽  
Nonlinear Observation ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter

Abstract A new ensemble-based data assimilation method, named the maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF), is presented. The analysis solution maximizes the likelihood of the posterior probability distribution, obtained by minimization of a cost function that depends on a general nonlinear observation operator. The MLEF belongs to the class of deterministic ensemble filters, since no perturbed observations are employed. As in variational and ensemble data assimilation methods, the cost function is derived using a Gaussian probability density function framework. Like other ensemble data assimilation algorithms, the MLEF produces an estimate of the analysis uncertainty (e.g., analysis error covariance). In addition to the common use of ensembles in calculation of the forecast error covariance, the ensembles in MLEF are exploited to efficiently calculate the Hessian preconditioning and the gradient of the cost function. A sufficient number of iterative minimization steps is 2–3, because of superior Hessian preconditioning. The MLEF method is well suited for use with highly nonlinear observation operators, for a small additional computational cost of minimization. The consistent treatment of nonlinear observation operators through optimization is an advantage of the MLEF over other ensemble data assimilation algorithms. The cost of MLEF is comparable to the cost of existing ensemble Kalman filter algorithms. The method is directly applicable to most complex forecast models and observation operators. In this paper, the MLEF method is applied to data assimilation with the one-dimensional Korteweg–de Vries–Burgers equation. The tested observation operator is quadratic, in order to make the assimilation problem more challenging. The results illustrate the stability of the MLEF performance, as well as the benefit of the cost function minimization. The improvement is noted in terms of the rms error, as well as the analysis error covariance. The statistics of innovation vectors (observation minus forecast) also indicate a stable performance of the MLEF algorithm. Additional experiments suggest the amplified benefit of targeted observations in ensemble data assimilation.

scholarly journals Convection-Permitting Forecasts Initialized with Continuously Cycling Limited-Area 3DVAR, Ensemble Kalman Filter, and “Hybrid” Variational–Ensemble Data Assimilation Systems

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (2) ◽  
pp. 716-738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig S. Schwartz ◽  
Zhiquan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Computational Domain ◽  
Ensemble Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Data ◽  
Precipitation Characteristics ◽  
High Precipitation

Abstract Analyses with 20-km horizontal grid spacing were produced from parallel continuously cycling three-dimensional variational (3DVAR), ensemble square root Kalman filter (EnSRF), and “hybrid” variational–ensemble data assimilation (DA) systems between 0000 UTC 6 May and 0000 UTC 21 June 2011 over a domain spanning the contiguous United States. Beginning 9 May, the 0000 UTC analyses initialized 36-h Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts containing a large convection-permitting 4-km nest. These 4-km 3DVAR-, EnSRF-, and hybrid-initialized forecasts were compared to benchmark WRF forecasts initialized by interpolating 0000 UTC Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses onto the computational domain. While important differences regarding mean state characteristics of the 20-km DA systems were noted, verification efforts focused on the 4-km precipitation forecasts. The 3DVAR-, hybrid-, and EnSRF-initialized 4-km precipitation forecasts performed similarly regarding general precipitation characteristics, such as timing of the diurnal cycle, and all three forecast sets had high precipitation biases at heavier rainfall rates. However, meaningful differences emerged regarding precipitation placement as quantified by the fractions skill score. For most forecast hours, the hybrid-initialized 4-km precipitation forecasts were better than the EnSRF-, 3DVAR-, and GFS-initialized forecasts, and the improvement was often statistically significant at the 95th percentile. These results demonstrate the potential of limited-area continuously cycling hybrid DA configurations and suggest additional hybrid development is warranted.

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