scholarly journals The Impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (14) ◽  
pp. 5311-5328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
R. Saravanan ◽  
Ping Chang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Mode ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity is influenced by interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability characterized by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as interannual-to-decadal variability in the interhemispheric gradient in tropical Atlantic SST characterized by the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). Individually, the negative AMM phase (cool northern and warm southern tropical Atlantic SST anomalies) and El Niño each inhibit Atlantic TCs, and vice versa. The impact of concurrent strong phases of the ENSO and AMM on Atlantic TC activity is investigated. The response of the atmospheric environment relevant for TCs is evaluated with a genesis potential index. Composites of observed accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) suggest that ENSO and AMM can amplify or dampen the influence of one another on Atlantic TCs. To support the observational analysis, numerical simulations are performed using a 27-km resolution regional climate model. The control simulation uses observed SST and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) of 1980–2000, and perturbed experiments are forced with ENSO phases through LBCs and eastern tropical Pacific SST and AMM phases through Atlantic SST. Simultaneous strong El Niño and strongly positive AMM, as well as strong concurrent La Niña and negative AMM, produce near-average Atlantic ACE suggesting compensation between the two influences, consistent with the observational analysis. Strong La Niña and strongly positive AMM together produce extremely intense Atlantic TC activity, supported largely by above average midtropospheric humidity, while strong El Niño and negative AMM together are not necessary conditions for significantly reduced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

scholarly journals The Centennial Variation of El Niño Impact on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruixin Yang ◽  
Allison Fairley ◽  
Wonsun Park
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) activity becomes more important every year while the understanding of what factors impact them continues to be complicated. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the primary factors impacting the activities in both the Pacific and the Atlantic, but an extensive examination of the fluctuation in this system has yet to be studied in its entirety. This article analyzes the ENSO impacts on the Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the assessed warm and cold years to show the dominant centennial-scale variation impact. This study looks to plausibly link this variation to the Southern Ocean centennial variability, which is rarely mentioned in any factors affecting the Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This centennial variability could be used to enhance future work related to predicting tropical cyclones.

scholarly journals The Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Eastern North Pacific Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 2459-2474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerry Y. Jien ◽  
William A. Gough ◽  
Ken Butler
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Main Development ◽  
Development Region ◽  
North Pacific Basin

Abstract The interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity due to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the main development region of the eastern North Pacific basin has received scant attention. Herein the authors classify years of El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions using the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). Storm measurements of the net tropical cyclone activity index and power dissipation index are used to summarize the overall seasonal TC activity and TC intensity between 1971 and 2012. Both measures are found to be statistically dependent on the ENSO phases in the basin’s main development region. However, when the area is longitudinally divided, only the western portion of the development region experienced a significant difference (p < 0.05). Specifically, El Niño years are characterized by more frequent, more intense events compared to La Niña conditions for this subregion. Correlation analyses on the relationships between the MEI and both TC indices demonstrate correlations between ENSO and TC activity and intensity that are statistically significant (p < 0.05) only in the western region. These relationships have the potential to improve the short-term forecast of the local TC activity and intensity on a seasonal basis for public awareness and disaster preparation.

The rôle of El Niño in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

Weather ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 53 (9) ◽  
pp. 324-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin G. Jones ◽  
Chris D. Thorncroft
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

scholarly journals El Niño–Southern Oscillation’s Impact on Atlantic Basin Hurricanes and U.S. Landfalls

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1252-1263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Klotzbach
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
East Coast ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been shown in many previous papers to impact seasonal levels of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. This paper revisits this relationship by examining a longer period (1900–2009) than has been examined in earlier analyses. Alterations in large-scale climate parameters, especially vertical wind shear, are shown to be the primary reasons why tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic is reduced in El Niño years. Climate signals are found to be somewhat stronger in the Caribbean than for the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. The focus of the paper then shifts to U.S. landfalls, confirming previous research that U.S. landfalls are reduced in El Niño years. The reduction in landfall frequency is greater along the Florida peninsula and East Coast than it is along the Gulf Coast, especially for major hurricanes. The probability of each state being impacted by a hurricane and major hurricane is given for El Niño, La Niña, and neutral years. The most dramatic probability differences between warm and cold ENSO events lie along the East Coast and, in particular, the state of North Carolina. The relationship between ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is also examined. In general, the negative phase of the AMO is characterized by a stronger ENSO modulation signal than a positive phase of the AMO.

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