scholarly journals The Role of Ocean Heat Transport in the Global Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (19) ◽  
pp. 6841-6859 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Tomas ◽  
Clara Deser ◽  
Lantao Sun
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Dynamic Coupling ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract The purpose of this study is to elucidate the individual and combined roles of thermodynamic and dynamic ocean–atmosphere coupling in the equilibrium global climate response to projected Arctic sea ice loss using a suite of experiments conducted with Community Climate System Model, version 4, at 1° latitude–longitude spatial resolution. The results highlight the contrasting spatial structures and partially compensating effects of thermodynamic and dynamic coupling. In combination, thermodynamic and dynamic coupling produce a response pattern that is largely symmetric about the equator, whereas thermodynamic coupling alone yields an antisymmetric response. The latter is characterized by an interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, with maximum warming at high northern latitudes decreasing toward the equator, which displaces the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and Hadley circulation northward. In contrast, the fully coupled response shows enhanced warming at high latitudes of both hemispheres and along the equator; the equatorial warming is driven by anomalous ocean heat transport convergence and is accompanied by a narrow equatorward intensification of the northern and southern branches of the ITCZ. In both cases, the tropical precipitation response to Arctic sea ice loss feeds back onto the atmospheric circulation at midlatitudes via Rossby wave dynamics, highlighting the global interconnectivity of the coupled climate system. This study demonstrates the importance of ocean dynamics in mediating the equilibrium global climate response to Arctic sea ice loss.

Interactions between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Docquier ◽  
Ramon Fuentes-Franco ◽  
Klaus Wyser ◽  
Torben Koenigk
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Fast Pace ◽  
Area And Volume

<p>Arctic sea ice has been retreating at fast pace in the last decades, with potential impacts on the weather and climate at mid and high latitudes, as well as the biosphere and society. Sea-ice loss is driven by anthropogenic global warming, atmospheric circulation changes, climate feedbacks, and ocean heat transport. To date, no clear consensus regarding the detailed impact of ocean heat transport on Arctic sea ice exists. Previous observational and modeling studies show that the poleward Atlantic Ocean heat transport and Arctic sea-ice area and volume are generally anti-correlated, suggesting a decrease in sea-ice area and volume with larger ocean heat transport. In turn, the changing sea ice may also affect ocean heat transport, but this effect has been much less studied. Our study explores the two-way interactions between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice. We use the EC-Earth global climate model, coupling the atmosphere and ocean, and perform different sensitivity experiments to gain insights into these interactions. The mechanisms by which ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice interact are analyzed, and compared to observations. This study provides a way to better constrain model projections of Arctic sea ice, based on the relationships between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice.</p>

scholarly journals Nudging the Arctic Ocean to Quantify Sea Ice Feedbacks

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (8) ◽  
pp. 2381-2395
Author(s):  
Evelien Dekker ◽  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
Camiel Severijns
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

AbstractWith Arctic summer sea ice potentially disappearing halfway through this century, the surface albedo and insulating effects of Arctic sea ice will decrease considerably. The ongoing Arctic sea ice retreat also affects the strength of the Planck, lapse rate, cloud, and surface albedo feedbacks together with changes in the heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, but their combined effect on climate sensitivity has not been quantified. This study presents an estimate of all Arctic sea ice related climate feedbacks combined. We use a new method to keep Arctic sea ice at its present-day (PD) distribution under a changing climate in a 50-yr CO2 doubling simulation, using a fully coupled global climate model (EC-Earth, version 2.3). We nudge the Arctic Ocean to the (monthly dependent) year 2000 mean temperature and minimum salinity fields on a mask representing PD sea ice cover. We are able to preserve about 95% of the PD mean March and 77% of the September PD Arctic sea ice extent by applying this method. Using simulations with and without nudging, we estimate the climate response associated with Arctic sea ice changes. The Arctic sea ice feedback globally equals 0.28 ± 0.15 W m−2 K−1. The total sea ice feedback thus amplifies the climate response for a doubling of CO2, in line with earlier findings. Our estimate of the Arctic sea ice feedback agrees reasonably well with earlier CMIP5 global climate feedback estimates and shows that the Arctic sea ice exerts a considerable effect on the Arctic and global climate sensitivity.

scholarly journals Model resolution influence on simulated sea ice decline

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 759-776 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. O. Sewall
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Model Predictions

Abstract. Satellite observations and model predictions of recent and future Arctic sea ice decline have raised concerns over the timing and potential impacts of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean. Model predictions of seasonally ice-free Arctic conditions are, however, highly variable. Here I present results from fourteen climate system models from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset that indicate modeled Arctic sea ice sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO2 forcing is strongly correlated with ice/ocean model horizontal resolution. Based on coupled model analyses and ice only simulations with the Los Alamos National Lab sea ice model (CICE), the correlation between declining Arctic sea ice cover and ice/ocean model resolution appears to depend largely on ocean model resolution and its influence on ocean heat transport into the Arctic basin. The correlation between model resolution, northward ocean heat transport, and the degree of Arctic ice loss is independent of ice model physics and complexity. This not only illustrates one difficulty in using numerical models to accurately predict the timing and magnitude of Arctic sea ice decline under increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas forcing, but also highlights one area where improved simulation (of northward ocean heat transport) could greatly decrease the uncertainties associated with predictions of future Arctic sea ice cover.

Atmospheric and oceanic drivers of regional Arctic winter sea-ice variability in present and future climates

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakob Dörr ◽  
Marius Årthun ◽  
Tor Eldevik ◽  
Erica Madonna
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

<p>The recent retreat of Arctic sea ice area is overlaid by strong internal variability on all timescales. In winter, sea ice retreat and variability are currently dominated by the Barents Sea, primarily driven by variable ocean heat transport from the Atlantic. Climate models from the latest intercomparison project CMIP6 project that the future loss of winter Arctic sea ice spreads throughout the Arctic Ocean and, hence, that other regions of the Arctic Ocean will see increased sea-ice variability. It is, however, not known how the influence of ocean heat transport will change, and to what extent and in which regions other drivers, such as atmospheric circulation or river runoff into the Arctic Ocean, will become important. Using a combination of observations and simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), we analyze and contrast the present and future regional drivers of the variability of the winter Arctic sea ice cover. We find that for the recent past, both observations and CESM-LE show that sea ice variability in the Atlantic and Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean is influenced by ocean heat transport through the Barents Sea and Bering Strait, respectively. The two dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability – the Arctic Oscillation and the Pacific North American pattern – are only weakly related to recent regional sea ice variability. However, atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with regional sea ice variability show distinct patterns for the Atlantic and Pacific sectors consistent with heat and humidity transport from lower latitudes. In the future, under a high emission scenario, CESM-LE projects a gradual expansion of the footprint of the Pacific and Atlantic inflows, covering the whole Arctic Ocean by 2050-2079. This study highlights the combined importance of future Atlantification and Pacification of the Arctic Ocean and improves our understanding of internal climate variability which essential in order to predict future sea ice changes under anthropogenic warming.   </p><p> </p>

scholarly journals The Role of Extratropical Ocean Warming in the Coupled Climate Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (22) ◽  
pp. 9193-9206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Blackport ◽  
Paul J. Kushner
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

The role of extratropical ocean warming in the coupled climate response to Arctic sea ice loss is investigated using coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and uncoupled atmospheric-only (AGCM) experiments. Coupled AOGCM experiments driven by sea ice albedo reduction and greenhouse gas–dominated radiative forcing are used to diagnose the extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) response to sea ice loss. Sea ice loss is then imposed in AGCM experiments both with and without these extratropical SST changes, which are found to extend beyond the regions where sea ice is lost. Sea ice loss in isolation drives warming that is confined to the Arctic lower troposphere and only a weak atmospheric circulation response. When the extratropical SST response caused by sea ice loss is also included in the forcing, the warming extends into the Arctic midtroposphere during winter. This coincides with a stronger atmospheric circulation response, including an equatorward shift in the eddy-driven jet, a deepening of the Aleutian low, and an expansion of the Siberian high. Similar results are found whether the extratropical SST forcing is taken directly from the AOGCM driven by sea ice loss, or whether they are diagnosed using a two-parameter pattern scaling technique where tropical adjustment to sea ice loss is removed. These results suggest that AGCM experiments that are driven by sea ice loss and only local SST increases will underestimate the Arctic midtroposphere warming and atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss, compared to AOGCM simulations and the real world.

scholarly journals Ocean Heat Transport as a Cause for Model Uncertainty in Projected Arctic Warming

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 1451-1460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Mahlstein ◽  
Reto Knutti
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Future Warming

Abstract The Arctic climate is governed by complex interactions and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere, ocean, and solar radiation. One of its characteristic features, the Arctic sea ice, is very vulnerable to anthropogenically caused warming. Production and melting of sea ice is influenced by several physical processes. The authors show that the northward ocean heat transport is an important factor in the simulation of the sea ice extent in the current general circulation models. Those models that transport more energy to the Arctic show a stronger future warming, in the Arctic as well as globally. Larger heat transport to the Arctic, in particular in the Barents Sea, reduces the sea ice cover in this area. More radiation is then absorbed during summer months and is radiated back to the atmosphere in winter months. This process leads to an increase in the surface temperature and therefore to a stronger polar amplification. The models that show a larger global warming agree better with the observed sea ice extent in the Arctic. In general, these models also have a higher spatial resolution. These results suggest that higher resolution and greater complexity are beneficial in simulating the processes relevant in the Arctic and that future warming in the high northern latitudes is likely to be near the upper range of model projections, consistent with recent evidence that many climate models underestimate Arctic sea ice decline.

scholarly journals Atmospheric feedback explains disparate climate response to regional Arctic sea-ice loss

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier J. Levine ◽  
Ivana Cvijanovic ◽  
Pablo Ortega ◽  
Markus G. Donat ◽  
Etienne Tourigny
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Feedback Mechanism ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss ◽  
Atmospheric Feedback

AbstractArctic sea-ice loss is a consequence of anthropogenic global warming and can itself be a driver of climate change in the Arctic and at lower latitudes, with sea-ice minima likely favoring extreme events over Europe and North America. Yet the role that the sea-ice plays in ongoing climate change remains uncertain, partly due to a limited understanding of whether and how the exact geographical distribution of sea-ice loss impacts climate. Here we demonstrate that the climate response to sea-ice loss can vary widely depending on the pattern of sea-ice change, and show that this is due to the presence of an atmospheric feedback mechanism that amplifies the local and remote signals when broader scale sea-ice loss occurs. Our study thus highlights the need to better constrain the spatial pattern of future sea-ice when assessing its impacts on the climate in the Arctic and beyond.

Arctic sea ice as an element of the global climate system

2009 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan E. Frolov ◽  
Zalman M. Gudkovich ◽  
Valery P. Karklin ◽  
Evgeny G. Kovalev ◽  
Vasily M. Smolyanitsky
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Sea

scholarly journals Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenn Rudebusch ◽  
Francis Diebold
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

<p>Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model indicates that overall sea ice coverage is declining at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high amounts of carbon emissions. Our long-range statistical projections also deliver <em>probability</em> assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. These results indicate almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean sometime during the 2030s—much earlier than the average projection from the global climate models. Our results are also consistent with projections from bivariate regressions of sea ice extent and carbon emissions. </p>

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