Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia

Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening biodiversity on a global scale. Rich spots of biodiversity, regions with exceptionally high endemism and/or number of species, are a top priority for nature conservation. Terrestrial studies have hypothesized that rich spots occur in places where long-term climate change was dampened relative to other regions. Here we tested whether biodiversity rich spots are likely to provide refugia for organisms during anthropogenic climate change. We assessed the spatial distribution of both historic (absolute temperature change and climate change velocities) and projected climate change in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine rich spots. Our analyses confirm the general consensus that global warming will impact almost all rich spots of all three realms and suggest that their characteristic biota is expected to witness similar forcing to other areas, including range shifts and elevated risk of extinction. Marine rich spots seem to be particularly sensitive to global warming: they have warmed more, have higher climate velocities, and are projected to experience higher future warming than non-rich-spot areas. However, our results also suggest that terrestrial and freshwater rich spots will be somewhat less affected than other areas. These findings emphasize the urgency of protecting a comprehensive and representative network of biodiversity-rich areas that accommodate species range shifts under climate change.

Analysis On The Regional Features of Future Warming Using High-Resolution Downscaled Multi-Model Climate Scenarios In China

The frequency and magnitude of global warming events varies greatly across different regions and countries. The climatic diversity for China and future warming features are projected across twelve climatic zones based on the ensemble of the five well-performing high resolution downscaled climate models for each zone. There are warming patterns for the mean near surface air temperature (Tm), maximum near surface air temperature (Tmax), minimum near surface air temperature (Tmin) as well as heat stress and frost events. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the three indices (i.e., Tm, Tmax and Tmin) countrywide are likely to increase at respective rates of 0.30-0.31 and 0.64-0.67 oC per decade. The extent of freezing-event extent (FE) are projected to decrease at a rate of -1912 and -4442 day·km2 per decade while the extent of heat-stress event (HE) increase at 1116 and 3557 day·km2 per decade. A higher increment in temperatures as well as a decreasing trend in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and frost days and FE are present on the Tibetan Plateau and northern China including Xinjiang, Northeast China, the eastern part of northwest China, Inner Mongolia and North China. These trends are opposite to those projected for southern China including Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, the south Yangzi River, South China and Southwestern China. The warming occur faster in the current colder zones (northern China and the Tibetan Plateau) while heat stress is more intense and severe in Jianghuai, Jianghan, the south Yangzi River, South China and Xinjiang. These potential changes indicate that adaption and mitigation strategies are necessary in response to future warming.

Upslope migration of snow avalanches in a warming climate

Snow is highly sensitive to atmospheric warming. However, because of the lack of sufficiently long snow avalanche time series and statistical techniques capable of accounting for the numerous biases inherent to sparse and incomplete avalanche records, the evolution of process activity in a warming climate remains little known. Filling this gap requires innovative approaches that put avalanche activity into a long-term context. Here, we combine extensive historical records and Bayesian techniques to construct a 240-y chronicle of snow avalanching in the Vosges Mountains (France). We show evidence that the transition from the late Little Ice Age to the early twentieth century (i.e., 1850 to 1920 CE) was not only characterized by local winter warming in the order of +1.35 °C but that this warming also resulted in a more than sevenfold reduction in yearly avalanche numbers, a severe shrinkage of avalanche size, and shorter avalanche seasons as well as in a reduction of the extent of avalanche-prone terrain. Using a substantial corpus of snow and climate proxy sources, we explain this abrupt shift with increasingly scarcer snow conditions with the low-to-medium elevations of the Vosges Mountains (600 to 1,200 m above sea level [a.s.l.]). As a result, avalanches migrated upslope, with only a relict activity persisting at the highest elevations (release areas >1,200 m a.s.l.). This abrupt, unambiguous response of snow avalanche activity to warming provides valuable information to anticipate likely changes in avalanche behavior in higher mountain environments under ongoing and future warming.

Analysing water productivity response to sowing window, irrigation levels and mulching using CERES-wheat model

Field experiments were carried out during rabi seasons of 2015-16 and 2016-17 at the Research Farm, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. Wheat variety PBW 621 was sown on three dates (D1: 4th week of October, D2: 2nd week of November and D3: 4th week of November) with two irrigation levels (I1: IW/ CPE = 0.9, I2: At CRI, 5-6 weeks after 1st irrigation, 3-4/5-6 weeks after 2nd irrigation, 2/4 weeks after 3rd irrigation as per dates of sowing) and mulch application (M1: without mulch, M2: straw mulch @ 5 t ha-1). Earlier sown mulch applied crop with four post-sowing irrigations produced highest (5312.5 kg ha-1) and late sown without mulch application crop with irrigation @IW/CPE = 0.9 produced lowest grain yield (3900.5 kg ha-1). Simulation results depicted -1.1 to 16.8 per cent deviation in crop yield, -1.4 to -21.0 per cent in water use and 12.7 to 45.5 per cent in water productivity. Increase in temperature from 1oC to 3oC decreased wheat yield by 6.3 to 27.0 per cent under D1 and 3.3 to 17.6 per cent under D2, however, it increased from 8.1 to 16.2 per cent under D3, indicating D3 as most appropriate under future warming scenarios. Increase in CO2 concentration decreased water use and increased yield and water productivity.

Thermal stress reduces carbonate production of benthic foraminifera and changes the material properties of their shells

In shallow marine environments, benthic foraminifera are important foundation species and carbonate producers. Understanding their response to future climate is often drawn from their acclimation potential in short laboratory experiments, thereby limiting our understanding of migration, species replacement, and adaptive potential. To overcome this challenge, we examine two species of benthic foraminifera from a thermally polluted field site mimicking future warming. This site and a control station cover 13–36°C causing both warm and cold stress to the local species. Computer Tomography reveals that under heat stress, even with acclimation, Lachlanella significantly reduced its shell volume. In contrast, Pararotalia calcariformata did not reduce its shell volume but reduced the relative amount of calcite with respect to shell volume and changed its reproduction cycle from twice to once per year. Raman spectroscopy indicates that thermal conditions alter the chemical composition of the calcite shells of both species. Calcification during thermal stress creates alterations in the crystal structure that are unexpectedly more prominent under cold stress than warm stress indicating warming might positively affect the shell's protective function. Supported by previous laboratory experiments and observations from the geological record, our results provide new perspective to the effect of warming on benthic foraminifera.