Bias in Estimates of Global Mean Sea Level Change Inferred from Satellite Altimetry

Estimates of regional and global average sea level change remain a focus of climate change research. One complication in obtaining coherent estimates is that geodetic datasets measure different aspects of the sea level field. Satellite altimetry constrains changes in the sea surface height (SSH; or absolute sea level), whereas tide gauge data provide a measure of changes in SSH relative to the crust (i.e., relative sea level). The latter is a direct measure of changes in ocean volume (and the combined impacts of ice sheet melt and steric effects), but the former is not since it does not account for crustal deformation. Nevertheless, the literature commonly conflates the two estimates by directly comparing them. We demonstrate that using satellite altimetry records to estimate global ocean volume changes can lead to biases that can exceed 15%. The level of bias will depend on the relative contributions to sea level changes from the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets. The bias is also more sensitive to the detailed geometry of mass flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet than the Greenland Ice Sheet due to rotational effects on sea level. Finally, in a regional sense, altimetry estimates should not be compared to relative sea level changes because radial crustal motions driven by polar ice mass flux are nonnegligible globally.

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Predicted Relative Sea-Level Changes (18,000 Years B.P. to Present) Caused by Late-Glacial Retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Quaternary Research ◽

10.1016/0033-5894(79)90076-0 ◽

1979 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 279-298 ◽

Cited By ~ 93

Author(s):

James A. Clark ◽

Craig S. Lingle

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Pacific Islands ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

Global Changes ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

Level Change ◽

The Past ◽

The Antarctic

Predictions of global changes in relative sea level caused by retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from its 18,000 yr B.P. maximum to its present size are calculated numerically. When combined with the global predictions of relative sea-level change resulting from retreat of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, the results may be compared directly to observations of sea-level change on the Antarctic continent as well as at distant localities. The comparison of predictions to the few observations of sea-level change on Antarctica supports the view that the Antarctic Ice Sheet was larger 18,000 years ago than at present. The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the total eustatic sea-level rise is assumed to be 25 m (25% of the assumed total eustatic rise). If as little as 0.7 m of this 25-m rise occurred between 5000 yr B.P. and the present, few mid-oceanic islands would emerge. If the Antarctic Ice Sheet attained its present dimensions by 6000 yr B.P., however, and if the volume of the ocean has remained constant for the past 5000 years, numerous islands throughout the Southern Hemisphere would emerge. It is suggested that a thorough study of Pacific islands, believed by some to have slightly emerged shorelines of Holocene age, would yield useful information about ocean volume changes during the past 5000 years, and hence on the glacial history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

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The response of large ice sheets to climatic change

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rstb.1992.0143 ◽

1992 ◽

Vol 338 (1285) ◽

pp. 235-242 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

Mixing Ratio ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Environmental Models ◽

Level Change ◽

The Antarctic

The prediction of short-term (100 year) changes in the mass balance of ice sheets and longer-term (1000 years) variations in their ice volumes is important for a range of climatic and environmental models. The Antarctic ice sheet contains between 24 M km 3 and 29 M km 3 of ice, equivalent to a eustatic sea level change of between 60m and 72m. The annual surface accumulation is estimated to be of the order of 2200 Gtonnes, equivalent to a sea level change of 6 mm a -1 . Analysis of the present-day accumulation regime of Antarctica indicates that about 25% ( ca. 500 Gt a -1 ) of snowfall occurs in the Antarctic Peninsula region with an area of only 6.8% of the continent. To date most models have focused upon solving predictive algorithms for the climate-sensitivity of the ice sheet, and assume: (i) surface mass balance is equivalent to accumulation (i.e. no melting, evaporation or deflation); (ii) percentage change in accumulation is proportional to change in saturation mixing ratio above the surface inversion layer; and (iii) there is a linear relation between mean annual surface air tem perature and saturation mixing ratio. For the A ntarctic Peninsula with mountainous terrain containing ice caps, outlet glaciers, valley glaciers and ice shelves, where there can be significant ablation at low levels and distinct climatic regimes, models of the climate response must be more complex. In addition, owing to the high accumulation and flow rates, even short- to medium -term predictions must take account of ice dynamics. Relationships are derived for the mass balance sensitivity and, using a model developed by Hindmarsh, the transient effects of ice dynamics are estimated. It is suggested that for a 2°C rise in mean annual surface tem perature over 40 years, ablation in the A ntarctic Peninsula region would contribute at least 1.0 mm to sea level rise, offsetting the fall of 0.5 mm contributed by increased accum ulation.

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Antarctic Ice-Sheet Volume at 18000 Years B.P. and Holocene Sea-Level Changes at the West Antarctic Margin

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/s0022143000014751 ◽

1979 ◽

Vol 24 (90) ◽

pp. 213-230 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Craig S. Lingle ◽

James A. Clark

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic ◽

The Antarctic

AbstractThe Antarctic ice sheet has been reconstructed at 18000 years b.p. by Hughes and others (in press) using an ice-flow model. The volume of the portion of this reconstruction which contributed to a rise of post-glacial eustatic sea-level has been calculated and found to be (9.8±1.5) × 106 km3. This volume is equivalent to 25±4 m of eustatic sea-level rise, defined as the volume of water added to the ocean divided by ocean area. The total volume of the reconstructed Antarctic ice sheet was found to be (37±6) × 106 km3. If the results of Hughes and others are correct, Antarctica was the second largest contributor to post-glacial eustatic sea-level rise after the Laurentide ice sheet. The Farrell and Clark (1976) model for computation of the relative sea-level changes caused by changes in ice and water loading on a visco-elastic Earth has been applied to the ice-sheet reconstruction, and the results have been combined with the changes in relative sea-level caused by Northern Hemisphere deglaciation as previously calculated by Clark and others (1978). Three families of curves have been compiled, showing calculated relative sea-level change at different times near the margin of the possibly unstable West Antarctic ice sheet in the Ross Sea, Pine Island Bay, and the Weddell Sea. The curves suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet remained grounded to the edge of the continental shelf until c. 13000 years b.p., when the rate of sea-level rise due to northern ice disintegration became sufficient to dominate emergence near the margin predicted otherwise to have been caused by shrinkage of the Antarctic ice mass. In addition, the curves suggest that falling relative sea-levels played a significant role in slowing and, perhaps, reversing retreat when grounding lines approached their present positions in the Ross and Weddell Seas. A predicted fall of relative sea-level beneath the central Ross Ice Shelf of as much as 23 m during the past 2000 years is found to be compatible with recent field evidence that the ice shelf is thickening in the south-east quadrant.

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Caspian Sea Level changes based on Satellite altimetry

10.21203/rs.3.rs-493306/v3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Omid Memarian Sorkhabi

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Caspian Sea ◽

Satellite Altimetry ◽

Sea Water ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

High Accuracy ◽

Research Data ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

The Caspian Sea ◽

Level Change

Abstract Today, despite the satellite altimetry, it is possible to determine the average sea level and determine the sea level change with high accuracy. In this research, data from 1992-2017 TOPEX / Poseidon, Jason1, OSTM and Jason3 altimeter satellites in the Caspian Sea have been used. The results show that every year the average of 75 mm of the Caspian Sea water level decreases and the downward trend.

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Caspian Sea Level changes based on Satellite altimetry

10.21203/rs.3.rs-493306/v2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Omid Memarian Sorkhabi

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Caspian Sea ◽

Satellite Altimetry ◽

Sea Water ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

High Accuracy ◽

Research Data ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

The Caspian Sea ◽

Level Change

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Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-11-953-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 953-976

Author(s):

Jonas Van Breedam ◽

Heiko Goelzer ◽

Philippe Huybrechts

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

Strong Increase ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

Level Change ◽

Global Sea Level ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract. The emphasis for informing policy makers on future sea-level rise has been on projections by the end of the 21st century. However, due to the long lifetime of atmospheric CO2, the thermal inertia of the climate system and the slow equilibration of the ice sheets, global sea level will continue to rise on a multi-millennial timescale even when anthropogenic CO2 emissions cease completely during the coming decades to centuries. Here we present global sea-level change projections due to the melting of land ice combined with steric sea effects during the next 10 000 years calculated in a fully interactive way with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIMv1.3. The greenhouse forcing is based on the Extended Concentration Pathways defined until 2300 CE with no carbon dioxide emissions thereafter, equivalent to a cumulative CO2 release of between 460 and 5300 GtC. We performed one additional experiment for the highest-forcing scenario with the inclusion of a methane emission feedback where methane is slowly released due to a strong increase in surface and oceanic temperatures. After 10 000 years, the sea-level change rate drops below 0.05 m per century and a semi-equilibrated state is reached. The Greenland ice sheet is found to nearly disappear for all forcing scenarios. The Antarctic ice sheet contributes only about 1.6 m to sea level for the lowest forcing scenario with a limited retreat of the grounding line in West Antarctica. For the higher-forcing scenarios, the marine basins of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet also become ice free, resulting in a sea-level rise of up to 27 m. The global mean sea-level change after 10 000 years ranges from 9.2 to more than 37 m. For the highest-forcing scenario, the model uncertainty does not exclude the complete melting of the Antarctic ice sheet during the next 10 000 years.

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Antarctic Ice-Sheet Volume at 18000 Years B.P. and Holocene Sea-Level Changes at the West Antarctic Margin

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s0022143000014751 ◽

1979 ◽

Vol 24 (90) ◽

pp. 213-230 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Craig S. Lingle ◽

James A. Clark

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic ◽

The Antarctic

AbstractThe Antarctic ice sheet has been reconstructed at 18000 years b.p. by Hughes and others (in press) using an ice-flow model. The volume of the portion of this reconstruction which contributed to a rise of post-glacial eustatic sea-level has been calculated and found to be (9.8±1.5) × 106km3. This volume is equivalent to 25±4 m of eustatic sea-level rise, defined as the volume of water added to the ocean divided by ocean area. The total volume of the reconstructed Antarctic ice sheet was found to be (37±6) × 106km3. If the results of Hughes and others are correct, Antarctica was the second largest contributor to post-glacial eustatic sea-level rise after the Laurentide ice sheet. The Farrell and Clark (1976) model for computation of the relative sea-level changes caused by changes in ice and water loading on a visco-elastic Earth has been applied to the ice-sheet reconstruction, and the results have been combined with the changes in relative sea-level caused by Northern Hemisphere deglaciation as previously calculated by Clark and others (1978). Three families of curves have been compiled, showing calculated relative sea-level change at different times near the margin of the possibly unstable West Antarctic ice sheet in the Ross Sea, Pine Island Bay, and the Weddell Sea. The curves suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet remained grounded to the edge of the continental shelf untilc. 13000 years b.p., when the rate of sea-level rise due to northern ice disintegration became sufficient to dominate emergence near the margin predicted otherwise to have been caused by shrinkage of the Antarctic ice mass. In addition, the curves suggest that falling relative sea-levels played a significant role in slowing and, perhaps, reversing retreat when grounding lines approached their present positions in the Ross and Weddell Seas. A predicted fall of relative sea-level beneath the central Ross Ice Shelf of as much as 23 m during the past 2000 years is found to be compatible with recent field evidence that the ice shelf is thickening in the south-east quadrant.

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Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

10.5194/gmd-2016-105 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Sophie M. J. Nowicki ◽

Tony Payne ◽

Eric Larour ◽

Helene Seroussi ◽

Heiko Goelzer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Climate Models ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Level Change ◽

Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice sheet – climate models as well as standalone ice sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea level change.

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