scholarly journals The Linear Sensitivity of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eddy-Driven Jet to SSTs

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (19) ◽  
pp. 6491-6511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugh S. Baker ◽  
Tim Woollings ◽  
Chris E. Forest ◽  
Myles R. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and eddy-driven jet contain a forced component arising from sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Due to large amounts of internal variability, it is not trivial to determine where and to what extent SSTs force the NAO and jet. A linear statistical–dynamic method is employed with a large climate ensemble to compute the sensitivities of the winter and summer NAO and jet speed and latitude to the SSTs. Key regions of sensitivity are identified in the Indian and Pacific basins, and the North Atlantic tripole. Using the sensitivity maps and a long observational SST dataset, skillful reconstructions of the NAO and jet time series are made. The ability to skillfully forecast both the winter and summer NAO using only SST anomalies is also demonstrated. The linear approach used here allows precise attribution of model forecast signals to SSTs in particular regions. Skill comes from the Atlantic and Pacific basins on short lead times, while the Indian Ocean SSTs may contribute to the longer-term NAO trend. However, despite the region of high sensitivity in the Indian Ocean, SSTs here do not provide significant skill on interannual time scales, which highlights the limitations of the imposed SST approach. Given the impact of the NAO and jet on Northern Hemisphere weather and climate, these results provide useful information that could be used for improved attribution and forecasting.

scholarly journals Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole Influence on Precipitation in Turkey with Cross-Spectral Analysis

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 99
Author(s):  
Umut Sakine Demir ◽  
Abdullah Cem Koc
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Phase Shift ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Maximum Phase ◽  
The North ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Predicting the future behavior of precipitation is of the utmost importance for planning agriculture or water resource management and in designing water structures. Determining the relationships between precipitation and the oceans may enable more accurate predictions. Therefore, oceanic and other persistent indices called teleconnection patterns can be used, namely the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). The NAO affects the precipitation patterns in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean countries, such as in Turkey. The IOD is related to temperature and precipitation in the Indian Ocean coastal countries and in some areas far from the Indian Ocean. In this study, the effects of the NAO and IOD indices on precipitation in Turkey were investigated by means of cross-spectral analysis between the monthly total precipitation (mm) and monthly NAO and IOD index values. Phase shift values were also calculated for the selected periods and their accuracy was evaluated statistically, using the determination coefficient (R2) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) as performance criteria for the linear model. The results indicated strong correlations for the 13-, 14-, 16-, and 22–23-month periods between the NAO index and precipitation values; and for the 13-, 14-, 16–17-, and 20–21-month periods between the IOD index and precipitation values. After cross-spectral analysis between the NAO and IOD indices and precipitation values, the maximum phase shift values increased as the periods increased, while the maximum phase shift value for each period was almost half of the period value. Moreover, the maximum cross-power spectral density (CPSD) values increased as the periods increased. High CPSD values were observed in the west of Turkey for the NAO and in the east of Turkey for the IOD.

scholarly journals North Atlantic Oscillation Response to Anomalous Indian Ocean SST in a Coupled GCM

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 5382-5389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Bader ◽  
Mojib Latif
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The dominant pattern of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since the 1970s the NAO has been well characterized by a trend toward its positive phase. Recent atmospheric general circulation model studies have linked this trend to a progressive warming of the Indian Ocean. Unfortunately, a clear mechanism responsible for the change of the NAO could not be given. This study provides further details of the NAO response to Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This is done by conducting experiments with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM). The authors develop a hypothesis of how the Indian Ocean impacts the NAO.

scholarly journals Intercontinental transport of tropospheric ozone: a study of its seasonal variability across the North Atlantic utilizing tropospheric ozone residuals and its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 2053-2066 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. K. Creilson ◽  
J. Fishman ◽  
A. E. Wozniak
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Using the empirically-corrected tropospheric ozone residual (TOR) technique, which utilizes coincident observations of total ozone from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and stratospheric ozone profiles from the Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) instruments, the seasonal and regional distribution of tropospheric ozone across the North Atlantic from 1979-2000 is examined. Its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also analyzed as a possible transport mechanism across the North Atlantic. Monthly climatologies of tropospheric ozone for five different regions across the North Atlantic exhibit strong seasonality. The correlation between these monthly climatologies of the TOR and ozonesonde profiles at nearby sites in both eastern North America and western Europe are highly significant (R values of +0.98 and +0.96 respectively) and help to validate the use of satellite retrievals of tropospheric ozone. Distinct springtime interannual variability over North Atlantic Region 5 (eastern North Atlantic-western Europe) is particularly evident and exhibits similar variability to the positive phase of the NAO (R=+0.61, r=<0.01). Positive phases of the NAO are indicative of a stronger Bermuda-Azores high and a stronger Icelandic low and thus faster more zonal flow across the North Atlantic from west to east. This flow regime appears to be causing the transport of tropospheric ozone across the North Atlantic and onto Europe. The consequence of such transport is the impact on a downwind region's ability to meet their ozone attainment goals. This link between the positive phase of the NAO and increased tropospheric ozone over Region 5 could be an important tool for prediction of such pollution outbreaks.

scholarly journals The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in Shaping Regional-Scale Peak Seasonal Precipitation across the Indian Subcontinent

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shouraseni Sen Roy
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The present study focuses on the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in shaping the regional-level precipitation during the peak months of the two main rainy seasons over the Indian subcontinent. Monthly precipitation data from 1871 to 2005 were collected for 30 homogenous regions across the subcontinent. Regression analysis was used to analyze the strength of the relationship between NAO on regional-level precipitation patterns. The results of the study showed distinct spatial variations in the response of regional-level rainfall to the monthly NAO index. There were greater variations in the strength of the regression coefficients for peak monsoon rainfall (PMR) compared to the peak winter rainfall (PWR) season. During the latter half of the year, the association between PMR and the NAO index was predominantly negative. In general, the role of NAO was more pronounced across most of the regions in the peninsular India.

Spatial differences in the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the flow of rivers in Europe

2011 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dariusz Wrzesiński ◽  
Rafał Paluszkiewicz
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Positive Correlations ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
River Profiles ◽  
The Impact

The article presents regional differences in the impact that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts on the flow of European rivers. The impact is determined by temporal variations in the strength of relations expressed by coefficients of correlation between monthly or seasonal NAO indices and discharges recorded at 510 river profiles. The results of the correlation analysis were arranged using Ward’s method of hierarchical grouping. The classification of river profiles thus obtained made it possible to distinguish seven regions differing in the nature of the dependence between streamflow and the intensity of the NAO. The most statistically significant positive correlations are displayed by the rivers of Fennoscandia, Denmark and the northwest part of the British Isles in the winter period, while the most significant negative correlations (also in winter) are recorded for streams of the Mediterranean Basin, western France and the southeast of England. In the southeast part of the Baltic Sea drainage basin, significant positive correlations of streamflow with the NAO indices can be observed in the winter season and negative correlations are observed in spring.

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