Importance of Human-Induced Nitrogen Flux Increases for Simulated Arctic Warming

AbstractHuman activities such as fossil fuel combustion, land-use change, nitrogen (N) fertilizer use, emission of livestock, and waste excretion accelerate the transformation of reactive N and its impact on the marine environment. This study elucidates that anthropogenic N fluxes (ANFs) from atmospheric and river deposition exacerbate Arctic warming and sea ice loss via physical–biological feedback. The impact of physical–biological feedback is quantified through a suite of experiments using a coupled climate–ocean–biogeochemical model (GFDL-CM2.1-TOPAZ) by prescribing the preindustrial and contemporary amounts of riverine and atmospheric N fluxes into the Arctic Ocean. The experiment forced by ANFs represents the increase in ocean N inventory and chlorophyll concentrations in present and projected future Arctic Ocean relative to the experiment forced by preindustrial N flux inputs. The enhanced chlorophyll concentrations by ANFs reinforce shortwave attenuation in the upper ocean, generating additional warming in the Arctic Ocean. The strongest responses are simulated in the Eurasian shelf seas (Kara, Barents, and Laptev Seas; 65°–90°N, 20°–160°E) due to increased N fluxes, where the annual mean surface temperature increase by 12% and the annual mean sea ice concentration decrease by 17% relative to the future projection, forced by preindustrial N inputs.

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Recent Sea Ice Decline Did Not Significantly Increase the Total Liquid Freshwater Content of the Arctic Ocean

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-18-0237.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 32 (1) ◽

pp. 15-32 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Qiang Wang ◽

Claudia Wekerle ◽

Sergey Danilov ◽

Dmitry Sidorenko ◽

Nikolay Koldunov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Spatial Distribution ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Ocean Circulation ◽

General Circulation ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Decline ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

Eurasian Basin ◽

The Impact

Abstract The freshwater stored in the Arctic Ocean is an important component of the global climate system. Currently the Arctic liquid freshwater content (FWC) has reached a record high since the beginning of the last century. In this study we use numerical simulations to investigate the impact of sea ice decline on the Arctic liquid FWC and its spatial distribution. The global unstructured-mesh ocean general circulation model Finite Element Sea Ice–Ocean Model (FESOM) with 4.5-km horizontal resolution in the Arctic region is applied. The simulations show that sea ice decline increases the FWC by freshening the ocean through sea ice meltwater and modifies upper ocean circulation at the same time. The two effects together significantly increase the freshwater stored in the Amerasian basin and reduce its amount in the Eurasian basin. The salinification of the upper Eurasian basin is mainly caused by the reduction in the proportion of Pacific Water and the increase in that of Atlantic Water (AW). Consequently, the sea ice decline did not significantly contribute to the observed rapid increase in the Arctic total liquid FWC. However, the changes in the Arctic freshwater spatial distribution indicate that the influence of sea ice decline on the ocean environment is remarkable. Sea ice decline increases the amount of Barents Sea branch AW in the upper Arctic Ocean, thus reducing its supply to the deeper Arctic layers. This study suggests that all the dynamical processes sensitive to sea ice decline should be taken into account when understanding and predicting Arctic changes.

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Cryospheric Impacts of Soviet River Diversion Schemes

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/1984aog5-1-61-68 ◽

1984 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. 61-68 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

T. Holt ◽

P. M. Kelly ◽

B. S. G. Cherry

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

River Discharge ◽

Large Scale ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Concentration ◽

Ice Concentration ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

The Impact

Soviet plans to divert water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean have led to research into the impact of a reduction in discharge on Arctic sea ice. We consider the mechanisms by which discharge reductions might affect sea-ice cover and then test various hypotheses related to these mechanisms. We find several large areas over which sea-ice concentration correlates significantly with variations in river discharge, supporting two particular hypotheses. The first hypothesis concerns the area where the initial impacts are likely to which is the Kara Sea. Reduced riverflow is associated occur, with decreased sea-ice concentration in October, at the time of ice formation. This is believed to be the result of decreased freshening of the surface layer. The second hypothesis concerns possible effects on the large-scale current system of the Arctic Ocean and, in particular, on the inflow of Atlantic and Pacific water. These effects occur as a result of changes in the strength of northward-flowing gradient currents associated with variations in river discharge. Although it is still not certain that substantial transfers of riverflow will take place, it is concluded that the possibility of significant cryospheric effects and, hence, large-scale climate impact should not be neglected.

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Natural variability of the Arctic Ocean sea ice during the present interglacial

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.2008996117 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 117 (42) ◽

pp. 26069-26075

Author(s):

Anne de Vernal ◽

Claude Hillaire-Marcel ◽

Cynthia Le Duc ◽

Philippe Roberge ◽

Camille Brice ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Natural Variability ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Lomonosov Ridge ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

Open Question ◽

The Impact

The impact of the ongoing anthropogenic warming on the Arctic Ocean sea ice is ascertained and closely monitored. However, its long-term fate remains an open question as its natural variability on centennial to millennial timescales is not well documented. Here, we use marine sedimentary records to reconstruct Arctic sea-ice fluctuations. Cores collected along the Lomonosov Ridge that extends across the Arctic Ocean from northern Greenland to the Laptev Sea were radiocarbon dated and analyzed for their micropaleontological and palynological contents, both bearing information on the past sea-ice cover. Results demonstrate that multiyear pack ice remained a robust feature of the western and central Lomonosov Ridge and that perennial sea ice remained present throughout the present interglacial, even during the climate optimum of the middle Holocene that globally peaked ∼6,500 y ago. In contradistinction, the southeastern Lomonosov Ridge area experienced seasonally sea-ice-free conditions, at least, sporadically, until about 4,000 y ago. They were marked by relatively high phytoplanktonic productivity and organic carbon fluxes at the seafloor resulting in low biogenic carbonate preservation. These results point to contrasted west–east surface ocean conditions in the Arctic Ocean, not unlike those of the Arctic dipole linked to the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Hence, our data suggest that seasonally ice-free conditions in the southeastern Arctic Ocean with a dominant Arctic dipolar pattern, may be a recurrent feature under “warm world” climate.

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How relevant is the deposition of mercury onto snowpacks? – Part 2: A modeling study

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-12-2647-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 2647-2706 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

D. Durnford ◽

A. Dastoor ◽

A. Ryzhkov ◽

L. Poissant ◽

M. Pilote ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Atmospheric Mercury ◽

The Arctic ◽

Hudson Bay ◽

Arctic Circle ◽

Surface Level ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

Simulated Concentration ◽

The Impact

Abstract. An unknown fraction of mercury that is deposited onto snowpacks is revolatilized to the atmosphere. Determining the revolatilized fraction is important since mercury that enters the snowpack meltwater may be converted to highly toxic bioaccumulating methylmercury. In this study, we present a new dynamic physically-based snowpack/meltwater model for mercury that is suitable for large-scale atmospheric models for mercury. It represents the primary physical and chemical processes that determine the fate of mercury deposited onto snowpacks. The snowpack/meltwater model was implemented in Environment Canada's atmospheric mercury model GRAHM. For the first time, observed snowpack-related mercury concentrations are used to evaluate and constrain an atmospheric mercury model. We find that simulated concentrations of mercury in both snowpacks and the atmosphere's surface layer agree closely with observations. The simulated concentration of mercury in both in the top 30 cm and the top 150 cm of the snowpack, averaged over 2005–2009, is predominantly below 6 ng l−1 over land south of 66.5° N but exceeds 18 ng l−1 over sea ice in extensive areas of the Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bay. The average simulated concentration of mercury in snowpack meltwater runoff tends to be higher on the Russian/European side (>20 ng l−1) of the Arctic Ocean than on the Canadian side (<10 ng l−1). The correlation coefficient between observed and simulated monthly mean atmospheric surface-level GEM concentrations increased significantly with the inclusion of the new snowpack/meltwater model at two of the three stations (midlatitude, subarctic) studied and remained constant at the third (arctic). Oceanic emissions are postulated to produce the observed summertime maximum in concentrations of surface-level atmospheric GEM at Alert in the Canadian Arctic and to generate the summertime volatility observed in these concentrations at both Alert and Kuujjuarapik on subarctic Hudson Bay, Canada. We find that the fraction of deposited mercury that is revolatilized from snowpacks increases with latitude from 28% between 30 and 45° N, to 51% from 45 to 66.5° N, to 70% polewards of 66.5° N on an annual basis. Combining this latitudinal gradient with the latitudinally increasing coverage of snowpacks causes yearly net deposition as a fraction of gross deposition to decrease from 98% between 30 and 45° N to 85% between 45 and 66.5° N to 44% within the Arctic Circle. The yearly net deposition and net accumulation of mercury at the surface within the Arctic Circle north of 66.5° N are estimated at 153 and 117 Mg, respectively. We calculate that 63 and 45 Mg of mercury are deposited annually to the Arctic Ocean directly and indirectly via melting snowpacks, respectively. For terrestrial surfaces within the Arctic Circle, we find that 24 and 21 Mg of mercury are deposited annually directly and indirectly via melting snowpacks, respectively. Within the Arctic Circle, multi-season snowpacks gained an estimated average of 136 kg of mercury annually on land but lost an average of 133 kg annually over sea ice, possibly as a result of increased melting caused by rising temperatures. The developed snowpack/meltwater model can be used for investigating the impact of climate change on the snowpack/atmosphere exchange of mercury.

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Modeling the impact of riverine DON removal by marine bacterioplankton on primary production in the Arctic Ocean

Biogeosciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/bgd-11-16953-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 16953-16992

Author(s):

V. Le Fouest ◽

M. Manizza ◽

B. Tremblay ◽

M. Babin

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Dissolved Organic Nitrogen ◽

Organic Nitrogen ◽

Temporal Trend ◽

The Arctic ◽

Biogeochemical Model ◽

The Impact ◽

Ice Model ◽

Annual Flux

Abstract. The planktonic and biogeochemical dynamics of the Arctic shelves exhibit a strong variability in response to Arctic warming. In this study, in order to elucidate on the processes regulating the production of phytoplankton (PP) and bacterioplankton (BP) and their interactions, we employ a biogeochemical model coupled to a pan-Arctic ocean-sea ice model (MITgcm) to explicitly simulate and quantify the contribution of usable dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) drained by the major circum-Arctic rivers on PP and BP in a scenario of melting sea ice (1998–2011). Model simulations suggest that on average between 1998 and 2011, the removal of usable RDON by bacterioplankton is responsible of a ~26% increase of the annual BP for the whole Arctic Ocean. With respect to total PP, the model simulates an increase of ~8% on an annual basis and of ~18% in summer. Recycled ammonium is responsible for the PP increase. The recycling of RDON by bacterioplankton promotes higher BP and PP but there is no significant temporal trend in the BP : PP ratio within the ice-free shelves over the 1998–2011 period. This suggests no significant evolution in the balance between autotrophy and heterotrophy in the last decade with a constant annual flux of RDON into the coastal ocean although changes in RDON supply and further reduction in sea ice cover could potentially alter this delicate balance.

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Modelling the impact of riverine DON removal by marine bacterioplankton on primary production in the Arctic Ocean

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-12-3385-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 12 (11) ◽

pp. 3385-3402 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

V. Le Fouest ◽

M. Manizza ◽

B. Tremblay ◽

M. Babin

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Primary Production ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Dissolved Organic Nitrogen ◽

Organic Nitrogen ◽

The Arctic ◽

Biogeochemical Model ◽

The Impact ◽

Ice Model ◽

Annual Flux

Abstract. The planktonic and biogeochemical dynamics of the Arctic shelves exhibit a strong variability in response to Arctic warming. In this study, we employ a biogeochemical model coupled to a pan-Arctic ocean–sea ice model (MITgcm) to elucidate the processes regulating the primary production (PP) of phytoplankton, bacterioplankton (BP), and their interactions. The model explicitly simulates and quantifies the contribution of usable dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) drained by the major circum-Arctic rivers to PP and BP in a scenario of melting sea ice (1998–2011). Model simulations suggest that, on average between 1998 and 2011, the removal of usable riverine dissolved organic nitrogen (RDON) by bacterioplankton is responsible for a ~ 26% increase in the annual BP for the whole Arctic Ocean. With respect to total PP, the model simulates an increase of ~ 8% on an annual basis and of ~ 18% in summer. Recycled ammonium is responsible for the PP increase. The recycling of RDON by bacterioplankton promotes higher BP and PP, but there is no significant temporal trend in the BP : PP ratio within the ice-free shelves over the 1998–2011 period. This suggests no significant evolution in the balance between autotrophy and heterotrophy in the last decade, with a constant annual flux of RDON into the coastal ocean, although changes in RDON supply and further reduction in sea-ice cover could potentially alter this delicate balance.

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How relevant is the deposition of mercury onto snowpacks? – Part 2: A modeling study

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-12-9251-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (19) ◽

pp. 9251-9274 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

D. Durnford ◽

A. Dastoor ◽

A. Ryzhkov ◽

L. Poissant ◽

M. Pilote ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Atmospheric Mercury ◽

The Arctic ◽

Hudson Bay ◽

Arctic Circle ◽

Surface Level ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

Simulated Concentration ◽

The Impact

Abstract. An unknown fraction of mercury that is deposited onto snowpacks is revolatilized to the atmosphere. Determining the revolatilized fraction is important since mercury that enters the snowpack meltwater may be converted to highly toxic bioaccumulating methylmercury. In this study, we present a new dynamic physically-based snowpack/meltwater model for mercury that is suitable for large-scale atmospheric models for mercury. It represents the primary physical and chemical processes that determine the fate of mercury deposited onto snowpacks. The snowpack/meltwater model was implemented in Environment Canada's atmospheric mercury model GRAHM. For the first time, observed snowpack-related mercury concentrations are used to evaluate and constrain an atmospheric mercury model. We find that simulated concentrations of mercury in both snowpacks and the atmosphere's surface layer agree closely with observations. The simulated concentration of mercury in both in the top 30 cm and the top 150 cm of the snowpack, averaged over 2005–2009, is predominantly below 6 ng L−1 over land south of 66.5° N but exceeds 18 ng L−1 over sea ice in extensive areas of the Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bay. The average simulated concentration of mercury in snowpack meltwater runoff tends to be higher on the Russian/European side (>20 ng L−1) of the Arctic Ocean than on the Canadian side (<10 ng L−1). The correlation coefficient between observed and simulated monthly mean atmospheric surface-level gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) concentrations increased significantly with the inclusion of the new snowpack/meltwater model at two of the three stations (midlatitude, subarctic) studied and remained constant at the third (arctic). Oceanic emissions are postulated to produce the observed summertime maximum in concentrations of surface-level atmospheric GEM at Alert in the Canadian Arctic and to generate the summertime volatility observed in these concentrations at both Alert and Kuujjuarapik on subarctic Hudson Bay, Canada. We find that the fraction of deposited mercury that is revolatilized from snowpacks increases with latitude from 39% between 30 and 45° N, to 57% from 45 to 60° N, 67% from 60 to 66.5° N, and 75% polewards of 66.5° N on an annual basis. Combining this latitudinal gradient with the latitudinally increasing coverage of snowpacks causes yearly net deposition as a fraction of gross deposition to decrease from 98% between 30 and 45° N to 89% between 45 and 60° N, 73% between 60 and 66.5° N, and 44% within the Arctic Circle. The yearly net deposition and net accumulation of mercury at the surface within the Arctic Circle north of 66.5° N are estimated at 153 and 117 Mg, respectively. We calculate that 58 and 50 Mg of mercury are deposited annually to the Arctic Ocean directly and indirectly via melting snowpacks, respectively. For terrestrial surfaces within the Arctic Circle, we find that 29 and 16 Mg of mercury are deposited annually directly and indirectly via melting snowpacks, respectively. Within the Arctic Circle, multi-season snowpacks on land and over sea ice gained, on average, an estimated 0.1 and 0.4 Mg yr−1 mercury, respectively, from 2000–2005. The developed snowpack/meltwater model can be used for investigating the impact of climate change on the snowpack/atmosphere exchange of mercury.

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Arctic Ocean sea ice snow depth evaluation and bias sensitivity in CCSM

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-7-1887-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 7 (6) ◽

pp. 1887-1900 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

B. A. Blazey ◽

M. M. Holland ◽

E. C. Hunke

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Snow Depth ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Blowing Snow ◽

Climate System Model ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

Future Work ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is a continued focus of attention. This study investigates the impact of the snow overlying the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The impact of snow depth biases in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is shown to impact not only the sea ice, but also the overall Arctic climate. Following the identification of seasonal biases produced in CCSM simulations, the thermodynamic transfer through the snow–ice column is perturbed to determine model sensitivity to these biases. This study concludes that perturbations on the order of the observed biases result in modification of the annual mean conductive flux through the snow–ice column of 0.5 W m2 relative to an unmodified simulation. The results suggest that the ice has a complex response to snow characteristics, with ice of different thicknesses producing distinct reactions. Our results indicate the importance of an accurate simulation of snow on the Arctic sea ice. Consequently, future work investigating the impact of current precipitation biases and missing snow processes, such as blowing snow, densification, and seasonal changes, is warranted.

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Marine Heatwaves in Siberian Arctic Seas and Adjacent Region

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13214436 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (21) ◽

pp. 4436

Author(s):

Elena Golubeva ◽

Marina Kraineva ◽

Gennady Platov ◽

Dina Iakshina ◽

Marina Tarkhanova

Keyword(s):

Numerical Modeling ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Northern Region ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Arctic Seas ◽

Siberian Arctic ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

The Impact

We used a satellite-derived global daily sea surface temperature (SST) dataset with resolution 0.25 × 0.25∘ to analyze interannual changes in the Arctic Shelf seas from 2000 to 2020 and to reveal extreme events in SST distribution. Results show that the second decade of the 21st century for the Siberian Arctic seas turned significantly warmer than the first decade, and the increase in SST in the Arctic seas could be considered in terms of marine heatwaves. Analyzing the spatial distribution of heatwaves and their characteristics, we showed that from 2018 to 2020, the surface warming extended to the northern deep-water region of the Laptev Sea 75∘ to 81∘N. To reveal the most important forcing for the northward extension of the marine heatwaves, we used three-dimensional numerical modeling of the Arctic Ocean based on a sea-ice and ocean model forced by the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The simulation of the Arctic Ocean variability from 2000 to 2020 showed marine heatwaves and their increasing intensity in the northern region of the Kara and Laptev seas, closely connected to the disappearance of ice cover. A series of numerical experiments on the sensitivity of the model showed that the main factors affecting the Arctic sea-ice loss and the formation of anomalous temperature north of the Siberian Arctic seas are equally the thermal and dynamic effects of the atmosphere. Numerical modeling allows us to examine the impact of other physical mechanisms as well. Among them were the state of the ocean and winter sea ice, the formation of fast ice polynias and riverine heat influx.

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Cyclone impact on sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean: a statistical study

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-8-303-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 303-317 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

A. Kriegsmann ◽

B. Brümmer

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Ocean Model ◽

The Arctic ◽

Central Arctic Ocean ◽

Cumulative Impact ◽

Model Composite ◽

Ice Melt ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

The Impact

Abstract. This study investigates the impact of cyclones on the Arctic Ocean sea ice for the first time in a statistical manner. We apply the coupled ice–ocean model NAOSIM which is forced by the ECMWF analyses for the period 2006–2008. Cyclone position and radius detected in the ECMWF data are used to extract fields of wind, ice drift, and concentration from the ice–ocean model. Composite fields around the cyclone centre are calculated for different cyclone intensities, the four seasons, and different sub-regions of the Arctic Ocean. In total about 3500 cyclone events are analyzed. In general, cyclones reduce the ice concentration in the order of a few percent increasing towards the cyclone centre. This is confirmed by independent AMSR-E satellite data. The reduction increases with cyclone intensity and is most pronounced in summer and on the Siberian side of the Arctic Ocean. For the Arctic ice cover the cumulative impact of cyclones has climatologic consequences. In winter, the cyclone-induced openings refreeze so that the ice mass is increased. In summer, the openings remain open and the ice melt is accelerated via the positive albedo feedback. Strong summer storms on the Siberian side of the Arctic Ocean may have been important contributions to the recent ice extent minima in 2007 and 2012.

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