Some Icelandic Perspectives on the Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean

This paper reflects on several aspects of the Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean from the standpoint of Iceland, prior to, during and at the conclusion of the negotiations of the Agreement in late 2017. Particular reference is made to UNCLOS and coastal State interests, status of knowledge on the fish stocks and the importance of scientific cooperation which the Agreement facilitates. During the years 2008–2015, the so-called Arctic Five consulted on cooperation in Arctic matters including future management of fisheries in the central Arctic Ocean. These rather exclusive cooperative efforts were criticised by Iceland and other States that felt these matters were to be dealt with in a broader international context. It seems evident that Iceland’s desire to become a full participant in the process during the subsequent years was both based on legal arguments as well as fair and natural geopolitical reasons. Iceland became a participant in the negotiations in December 2015. The final version of the Agreement is a fully fledged platform for coordinating scientific research and it even allows for interim management measures until future regional management framework is in place. In essence, the Agreement can be taken as a regional fisheries management arrangement (RFMA), since most elements of relevance are incorporated in accordance with the 1995 UN Fish Stocks Agreement. The opening of the central Arctic Ocean for fishing is not likely to take place in the nearest future, although the development of sea ice retreat is currently faster than earlier anticipated. While the Agreement is today regarded as being historic due to its precautionary approach, future may prove that it was a timely arrangement in a fast-moving world with dramatic changes taking place in the Arctic Ocean.

Understanding the Forecast Skill of Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Subseasonal Timescales

Predictability of sea ice during extreme sea ice loss events on subseasonal (daily to weekly) timescales is explored in dynamical forecast models. These extreme sea ice loss events (defined as the 5th percentile of the 5-day change in sea ice extent) exhibit substantial regional and seasonal variability—in the central Arctic Ocean basin, most subseasonal rapid ice loss occurs in the summer, but in the marginal seas, rapid sea ice loss occurs year-round. Dynamical forecast models are largely able to capture the seasonality of these extreme sea ice loss events. In most regions in the summertime, sea ice forecast skill is lower on extreme sea ice loss days than on non-extreme days, despite evidence that links these extreme events to large-scale atmospheric patterns; in the wintertime, the difference between extreme and non-extreme days is less pronounced. In a damped anomaly forecast benchmark estimate, the forecast error remains high following extreme sea ice loss events and does not return to typical error levels for many weeks; this signal is less robust in the dynamical forecast models but still present. Overall, these results suggest that sea ice forecast skill is generally lower during and after extreme sea ice loss events; and that while dynamical forecast models are capable of simulating extreme sea ice loss events with similar characteristics to what we observe, forecast skill from dynamical models is limited by biases in mean state and variability and errors in the initialization.

Ice-Associated Amphipods in a Pan-Arctic Scenario of Declining Sea Ice

Sea-ice macrofauna includes ice amphipods and benthic amphipods, as well as mysids. Amphipods are important components of the sympagic food web, which is fuelled by the production of ice algae. Data on the diversity of sea-ice biota have been collected as a part of scientific expeditions over decades, and here we present a pan-Arctic analysis of data on ice-associated amphipods and mysids assimilated over 35 years (1977–2012). The composition of species differed among the 13 locations around the Arctic, with main differences between basins and shelves and also between communities in drift ice and landfast sea ice. The sea ice has been dramatically reduced in extent and thickness during the recorded period, which has resulted in reduced abundance of ice amphipods as well as benthic amphipods in sea ice from the 1980’s to the 2010’s. The decline mainly involved Gammarus wilkitzkii coinciding with the disappearance of much of the multiyear sea ice, which is an important habitat for this long-lived species. Benthic amphipods were most diverse, and also showed a decline over the time-span. They had higher abundance closer to land where they are associated with landfast ice. However, they also occurred in the Central Arctic Ocean, which is likely related to the origin of sea ice over shallow water and subsequent transport in the transpolar ice drift. Recent sampling in the waters east and north of Svalbard has found continued presence of Apherusa glacialis, but almost no G. wilkitzkii. Monitoring by standardized methods is needed to detect further changes in community composition of ice amphipods related to reductions in sea-ice cover and ice type.

Arctic Ocean stratification set by sea level and freshwater inputs since the last ice age

Salinity-driven density stratification of the upper Arctic Ocean isolates sea-ice cover and cold, nutrient-poor surface waters from underlying warmer, nutrient-rich waters. Recently, stratification has strengthened in the western Arctic but has weakened in the eastern Arctic; it is unknown if these trends will continue. Here we present foraminifera-bound nitrogen isotopes from Arctic Ocean sediments since 35,000 years ago to reconstruct past changes in nutrient sources and the degree of nutrient consumption in surface waters, the latter reflecting stratification. During the last ice age and early deglaciation, the Arctic was dominated by Atlantic-sourced nitrate and incomplete nitrate consumption, indicating weaker stratification. Starting at 11,000 years ago in the western Arctic, there is a clear isotopic signal of Pacific-sourced nitrate and complete nitrate consumption associated with the flooding of the Bering Strait. These changes reveal that the strong stratification of the western Arctic relies on low-salinity inflow through the Bering Strait. In the central Arctic, nitrate consumption was complete during the early Holocene, then declined after 5,000 years ago as summer insolation decreased. This sequence suggests that precipitation and riverine freshwater fluxes control the stratification of the central Arctic Ocean. Based on these findings, ongoing warming will cause strong stratification to expand into the central Arctic, slowing the nutrient supply to surface waters and thus limiting future phytoplankton productivity.

Record winter winds in 2020/21 drove exceptional Arctic sea ice transport

The volume of Arctic sea ice is in decline but exhibits high interannual variability, which is driven primarily by atmospheric circulation. Through analysis of satellite-derived ice products and atmospheric reanalysis data, we show that winter 2020/21 was characterised by anomalously high sea-level pressure over the central Arctic Ocean, which resulted in unprecedented anticyclonic winds over the sea ice. This atmospheric circulation pattern drove older sea ice from the central Arctic Ocean into the lower-latitude Beaufort Sea, where it is more vulnerable to melting in the coming warm season. We suggest that this unusual atmospheric circulation may potentially lead to unusually high summer losses of the Arctic’s remaining store of old ice.

Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3

A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of long-term reliable global observation of SIT. In this study, the EC-Earth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the regional benefits of specific initialized variables, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. In the Atlantic Arctic, the Greenland–Iceland–Norway (GIN) and Barents seas are the two most skilful regions in SIC prediction for up to 5–6 lead years with ocean initialization; there are re-emerging skills for SIC in the Barents and Kara seas in lead years 7–9 coinciding with improved skills of sea surface temperature (SST), reflecting the impact of SIC initialization on ocean–atmosphere interactions for interannual-to-decadal timescales. For the year 2–9 average, the region with significant skill for SIT is confined to the central Arctic Ocean, covered by multi-year sea ice (CAO-MYI). Winter preconditioning with SIT initialization increases the skill for September SIC in the eastern Arctic (e.g. Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas) and in turn improve the skill of air surface temperature locally and further expanded over land. SIT initialization outperforms the other initialization methods in improving SIT prediction in the Pacific Arctic (e.g. East Siberian and Beaufort seas) in the first few lead years. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal predictability may thus shift from sea ice volume to ocean-driven processes.

Summertime Amino Acid and Carbohydrate Patterns in Particulate and Dissolved Organic Carbon Across Fram Strait

Amino acids (AA) and carbohydrates (CHO) are important components of the marine organic carbon cycle. Produced mainly by phytoplankton as part of the particulate organic carbon (POC) fraction, these compounds can be released into the outer medium where they become part of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) pool and are rapidly taken up by heterotrophs (e.g., bacteria). We investigated the quantity and quality of POC and DOC, AA and CHO composition in both pools in three different water masses in the Fram Strait (Arctic Ocean) in summer 2017. Polar Waters and Atlantic Waters showed similar concentrations of particulate and dissolved AA and CHO, despite Polar Waters showing the highest DOC concentrations. In Mixed Waters, where the two water masses mix with each other and with melting sea ice, the concentrations of particulate and dissolved AA and CHO were highest. AA and CHO composition differed substantially between the particulate and dissolved fractions. The particulate fraction (>0.7 μm) was enriched in essential AA and the CHO galactose, xylose/mannose, and muramic acid. In the dissolved fraction non-essential AA, several neutral CHO, and acidic and amino CHO were enriched. We further investigated different size fractions of the particulate matter using a separate size fractionation approach (0.2–0.7 μm, 0.7–10 μm and >10 μm). The chemical composition of the 0.2–0.7 μm size-fraction had a higher contribution of non-essential AA and acidic and amino sugars, setting them apart from the 0.7–10 μm and >10 μm fractions, which showed the same composition. We suggest that the relative differences observed between different size fractions and DOC with regards to AA and CHO composition can be used to evaluate the state of organic matter processing and evaluate the contribution of autotrophic phytoplankton or more heterotrophic biomass. In the future, changing conditions in the Central Arctic Ocean (Atlantification, warming, decreasing ice concentrations) may increase primary production and consequently degradation. The AA and CHO signatures left behind after production and/or degradation processes occurred, could be used as tracers after the fact to infer changes in microbial loop processes and food web interactions.