scholarly journals The influence of interannual and decadal Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature variability on Australian monsoon rainfall

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-58
Author(s):  
Hanna Heidemann ◽  
Joachim Ribbe ◽  
Tim Cowan ◽  
Benjamin J. Henley ◽  
Christa Pudmenzky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Cp El Niño ◽  
La Nina

AbstractMonsoonal rainfall varies substantially in Northern Australia (AUMR) on interannual, decadal and longer time scales, profoundly impacting natural systems and agricultural communities. Some of this variability arises in response to sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Indo-Pacific linked to both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Here we use observations to investigate unresolved issues regarding the influence of the IPO and ENSO on AUMR. Specifically, we show that during negative IPO phases, central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are associated with below average rainfall over northeast Australia, an anomalous anticyclonic pattern to the northwest of Australia, and eastward moisture advection towards the Dateline. In contrast, CP La Niña events (distinct from eastern Pacific La Niña events) during negative IPO phases drive significantly wet conditions over much of northern Australia, a strengthened Walker Circulation, and large-scale moisture flux convergence. During positive IPO phases, the impact of CP El Niño and CP La Niña events on AUMR is weaker. The influence of central Pacific SSTs on AUMR has been stronger during the recent (post-1999) negative IPO phase. The extent to which this strengthening is associated with climate change or merely natural, internal variability is not known.

Sea Surface Temperature in the Subtropical Pacific Boosted the 2015 El Niño and Hindered the 2016 La Niña

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 877-893 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingzhi Su ◽  
Renhe Zhang ◽  
Xinyao Rong ◽  
Qingye Min ◽  
Congwen Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Super El Niño

After the quick decaying of the 2015 super El Niño, the predicted La Niña unexpectedly failed to materialize to the anticipated standard in 2016. Diagnostic analyses, as well as numerical experiments, showed that this ENSO evolution of the 2015 super El Niño and the hindered 2016 La Niña may be essentially caused by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the subtropical Pacific. The self-sustaining SSTAs in the subtropical Pacific tend to weaken the trade winds during boreal spring–summer, leading to anomalous westerlies along the equatorial region over a period of more than one season. Such long-lasting wind anomalies provide an essential requirement for ENSO formation, particularly before a positive Bjerknes feedback is thoroughly built up between the oceanic and atmospheric states. Besides the 2015 super El Niño and the hindered La Niña in 2016, there were several other El Niño and La Niña events that cannot be explained only by the oceanic heat content in the equatorial Pacific. However, the questions related to those eccentric El Niño and La Niña events can be well explained by suitable SSTAs in the subtropical Pacific. Thus, the leading SSTAs in the subtropical Pacific can be treated as an independent indicator for ENSO prediction, on the basis of the oceanic heat content inherent in the equatorial region. Because ENSO events have become more uncertain under the background of global warming and the Pacific decadal oscillation during recent decades, thorough investigation of the role of the subtropical Pacific in ENSO formation is urgently needed.

scholarly journals UPWELLING CHARACTERISTICS IN THE SOUTHERN JAVA WATERS DURING STRONG LA NINA 2010 AND SUPER EL NINO 2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 257-276
Author(s):  
Agus S. Atmadipoera ◽  
Agitha Saverti Jasmine ◽  
Mulia Purba ◽  
Anastasia R.T.D. Kuswardani
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Subsurface Water ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
La Niña 2010

Seasonal coastal upwelling in the Southern Java waters is considered to be modulated by interannual ocean-atmosphere variability of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  This study aims to investigate a contrast in seasonal upwelling characteristics during the La Nina 2010 and El Nino 2015 events, by using multi-datasets from INDESO model output and satellite-derived datasets. Distinct characteristics of seasonal upwelling was clearly seen. In La Nina, surface ocean-atmosphere variables were much lower than that observed in El Nino, except for precipitation rate, sea surface temperature, and sea surface height.  In La Nina, warmer (27-28°C) and a very freshwater (<33.80psu) were predominant in the upper 45m depth, concealing upwelling cooler water at subsurface. In contrast, in the El Nino, a drastic upwelled subsurface water of isotherms of 25-26°C and isohalines of 34.24-34.44psu were outcropped at the sea surface. Temperature-based upwelling index is -2°C and +4°C, demonstrating the ENSO has strongly modulated the upwelling intensity. A strong eastward South Java Coastal Current (SJCC) was found only in La Nina event.  Persistent westward Indonesian Throughflow south of 9.5°S were visible both in different ENSO events.  Estimate of Ekman transport derived from model meridional current was intervened strongly by the presence of the SJCC and the ITF.

scholarly journals The Years of El Niño, La Niña, and Interactions with the Tropical Indian Ocean

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 2872-2880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Meyers ◽  
Peter McIntosh ◽  
Lidia Pigot ◽  
Mike Pook
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The Indian Ocean zonal dipole is a mode of variability in sea surface temperature that seriously affects the climate of many nations around the Indian Ocean rim, as well as the global climate system. It has been the subject of increasing research, and sometimes of scientific debate concerning its existence/nonexistence and dependence/independence on/from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, since it was first clearly identified in Nature in 1999. Much of the debate occurred because people did not agree on what years are the El Niño or La Niña years, not to mention the newly defined years of the positive or negative dipole. A method that identifies when the positive or negative extrema of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole occur is proposed, and this method is used to classify each year from 1876 to 1999. The method is statistical in nature, but has a strong basis on the oceanic physical mechanisms that control the variability of the near-equatorial Indo-Pacific basin. Early in the study it was found that some years could not be clearly classified due to strong decadal variation; these years also must be recognized, along with the reason for their ambiguity. The sensitivity of the classification of years is tested by calculating composite maps of the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly and the probability of below median Australian rainfall for different categories of the El Niño–Indian Ocean relationship.

scholarly journals The quality of the reproduction of El Nino and La Nina events using different reconstructed sea surface temperature data sets

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-120
Author(s):  
Olesia V. Marchukova ◽  
◽  
Andrey S. Lubkov ◽  
Elena N. Voskresenskaya ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Surface Temperature Data

scholarly journals Effects of Salinity Variability on Recent El Niño Events

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Zhi ◽  
Rong-Hua Zhang ◽  
Pengfei Lin ◽  
Shiwei Shi
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Salinity Variability ◽  
Central Equatorial Pacific

Ocean salinity variability provides a new way to study the evolution of the the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Comparisons between the salinity variation and related processes responsible for sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) were extensively examined for the two strong El Niño (EN) events in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, and a special EN event in 2014/2015. The results show that the development of EN is significantly correlated with a sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA) in the tropical western-central Pacific. In the spring of 1997 and 2015 with strong EN events, the western-central equatorial Pacific exhibited significant negative SSSA that propagated eastward to the west of the dateline. The negative SSSA induced increased barrier layer thickness (BLT) which enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central Pacific. In contrast, although a negative SSSA occurred during April of the 2014/2015 weak EN event in the western-central equatorial Pacific, this SSSA was mainly confined to between 160° E and 180° E without significant eastward movement, resulting in a weakened BLT thickening process and a weak modulation effect on SST. We also confirm that the surface forcing associated with fresh water flux (FWF: evaporation (E) minus precipitation (P)) plays a prominent role in the surface salinity tendency in the tropical Pacific during EN events. Moreover, the negative FWF anomaly leads a strong negative SSSA by two months. Compared with the two strong ENs, the early negative FWF anomaly in the weak 2014/2015 EN did not present distinct development and eastward propagation and weakened rapidly in the summer of 2015. We demonstrate that change in salinity can modulate the ENSO, and the variation of SSSA and associated physical processes in the tropical western-central Pacific and could be used as an indicator for predicting the development of ENSO.

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