Precipitation Variability and Probabilities of Extreme Events in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (Latakia Governorate-Syria as a Case Study)

This study aimed at analysis of the general-index change for the mean annual and seasonal precipitation in six stations in Latakia Governorate (Syria). The data of precipitation were collected for 40 consecutive years (1970–2010) in order to figure out the extent of the changes and variability in precipitation rates and the impact of this change on changes in the potential density that might cause extremely high or low precipitation rates according to Gumbel distribution of the extreme precipitation rates. Results revealed a decrease of the annual precipitation rates in all stations, the reduction in precipitation ranged from 46 to 210 mm during the whole period of the study. Spring, however, recorded the highest and statistically significant reduction, which reached 46–210 mm, while winter precipitation increased by 21–82 mm. Spring also has witnessed a decrease of about 3–9% of the total annual precipitation as compared to winter precipitation which increased by 5–8% of the total. The potential density of extremely high winter precipitation rates increased in all stations as indicated from Gumbel distribution in winter, and a greater increase took place in the probabilities of occurrence of the extremely low spring precipitation rates. This shows significant probability of occurrence of drought during spring season. By contrast, probabilities of winter precipitation rates increased more, thus winter is relatively more humid than before and spring is relatively drier than before.

Trends, periodicities and ENSO relationships of the annual precipitation over the contiguous United States and Southern Canada

The century-long (1891-1990) time series of Groisman and Easterling (1994a,b) representing estimates of annual precipitation amounts over five homogeneous regions of the United States and Southern Canada (south of 55° N) were examined for trends, periodicities and ENSO relationships. The trends were not uniformly up or down during the 100-year interval, for any region. From 1891 to about 1930, the trends were downward or negligible. Thereafter, the trends were mostly upward, with cyclic variations superposed. A spectral analysis revealed significant periodicities in the QBO and QTO regions (2-3 years and 3-4 years) as also higher periodicities, some common to all regions and hence seen in the series for the entire region. To study the ENSO relationship, a finer classification of El Nino events was used. Each year was examined to check whether it had an El Nino (EN) and/or a Southern Oscillation Index SOI minimum (SO) and/or warm (W) or cold (C) equatorial eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures SST. Several years were ENSOW, which were further subdivided into two groups viz. Unambiguous ENSOW where El Nino existed and SOI minima and SST maxima were in the middle of the calendar year (May-Aug) and, Ambiguous ENSOW where El Nino existed but the SOI minima and SST maxima were in the early or late part of the calendar year, not in the middle. Other El Nino events were of the type ENSO, ENW, ENC, EN. For the All India summer monsoon rainfall, Unambiguous ENSOW were overwhelmingly associated with droughts. For the rainfall in USA and Canada, relationships were not clear-cut except in the Gulf-Mexico region and some other parts. For these regions, excess rains were associated better with the Unambiguous ENSOW.

Patterns and Predictors of Small Mammal Phylogenetic and Functional Diversity in Contrasting Elevational Gradients in Kenya

Mountains of the Afrotropics are global biodiversity hotspots and centers of speciation and endemism; however, very few studies have focused on the phylogenetic and functional dimensions of Afromontane small mammals. We investigated the patterns and mechanisms of small mammal phylogenetic and functional diversity and assembly along elevational gradients in Mount Kenya, the second highest mountain in Africa, and a contrasting low mountain range, Chyulu Hills. We sampled 24 200-m interval transects in both sites; 18 in Mt. Kenya (9 each in the windward side, Chogoria, and the leeward side, Sirimon) and 6 in Chyulu. We extracted the mitochondrial Cytochrome b gene to reconstruct a time-calibrated species tree for estimating phylogenetic diversity indices [phylogenetic richness (PD), mean nearest taxon distance (PDMNTD), and nearest taxon index (PDNTI)]. A functional trait data set was compiled from the field-recorded measurements and published data sets for estimating functional diversity indices [functional richness (FD), mean nearest taxon distance (FDMNTD), and nearest taxon index (FDNTI)]. Several environmental variables representing water-energy availability, primary habitat productivity, and topographic heterogeneity were used to estimate the predictive power of abiotic conditions on diversity variances using generalized linear and generalized additive regression models. The PD and FD peaked around mid-elevations in Mt. Kenya, unimodally increased or decreased in Chogoria and Sirimon, and monotonically increased in Chyulu. The divergence and community structure indices—PDMNTD, FDMNTD, and PDNTI and FDNTI—were relatively weakly associated with elevation. Overall, the tendency of assemblages to be phylogenetically and functionally closely related than expected by chance decreased with elevation in Mt. Kenya but increased in Chyulu. Across the indices, the annual precipitation and topographic ruggedness were the strongest predictors in Mt. Kenya, evapotranspiration and temperature seasonality were the strongest predictors in Chyulu, while temperature seasonality and terrain ruggedness overlapped as the strongest predictors in Chogoria and Sirimon in addition to annual precipitation in the latter and normalized difference vegetation index in the former. The observed contrasting trends in diversity distribution and the strongest predictors between elevational gradients are integral to the sustainable management of the high faunal biodiversity in tropical Afromontane ecosystems.

BALANÇO HÍDRICO CLIMATOLÓGICO NORMAL E SEQUENCIAL DO MUNICÍPIO DE PEREIRA BARRETO - SP COMO AUXILIO PARA O PLANEJAMENTO DA AGRICULTURA IRRIGADA

BALANÇO HÍDRICO CLIMATOLÓGICO NORMAL E SEQUENCIAL DO MUNICÍPIO DE PEREIRA BARRETO - SP COMO AUXILIO PARA O PLANEJAMENTO DA AGRICULTURA IRRIGADA PEDRO ALCANTARA DA SILVA ABREU1 E FERNANDO BRAZ TANGERINO HERNANDEZ2 1 Doutorando em Agronomia: Irrigação e Drenagem, Departamento de Engenharia Rural, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Avenida Universitária, n° 3780, Altos do Paraíso, 18610-034, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brasil. E-mail; [email protected]. 2 Professor Titular, Departamento de Fitossanidade, Engenharia Rural e Solos - DEFERS, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Avenida Brasil Sul, n° 56, Centro, 15385-000, Ilha Solteira, São Paulo, Brasil. E-mail: [email protected] 1 RESUMO Este trabalho teve como objetivo gerar um balanço hídrico climatológico (BHC) normal e sequencial para o município de Pereira Barreto, SP para identificar os períodos do ano com excedente e déficit de água no solo. Foram realizados dois BHCs para o município, determinados a partir do método de Thorthwaite e Mather (1955), com base nos dados das estações agrometereologicas automáticas Bonança e Santa Adélia, pertencentes à Rede Agrometeorológica do Noroeste Paulista, operada pela Unesp de Ilha Solteira. A precipitação média anual é de 1.214 mm e a evapotranspiração de 1.340 mm para a Estação Bonança, enquanto para a Santa Adélia, a precipitação média anual é de 1.204 mm e evapotranspiração de 1.574 mm. Com a Capacidade de Água Disponível (CAD) de 40 mm, os BHCs constataram sete meses de déficit hídrico no solo, entre março e outubro na Estação Bonança, localizada às margens do rio Tietê e de abril a novembro na Estação Santa Adélia, localizada na porção noroeste do município. O excesso de água no solo na Estação Bonança aconteceu entre os meses de novembro e fevereiro e na Santa Adélia entre janeiro e março. O BHC mostrou ser grande o risco de frustação de safra com culturas anuais no município sem a utilização de irrigação. Palavras-chave: evapotranspiração, déficit hídrico, irrigação, agrometeorologia, Noroeste Paulista. ABREU, P. A. S.; HERNANDEZ, F. B. T. NORMAL AND SEQUENTIAL CLIMATOLOGICAL WATER BALANCE IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF PEREIRA BARRETO - SP AS AID FOR THE PLANNING OF IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE 2 ABSTRACT This work aimed to generate a normal and sequential climatological water balance (BHC) for the municipality of Pereira Barreto, SP to identify the periods of the year with surplus and deficit of water in the soil. Two BHCs were carried out for the municipality determined by the method of Thorthwaite and Mather (1955), based on data from the automatic agro-meteorological stations Bonança and Santa Adélia, belonging to the Northwest Agro-meteorological Network of the Northwest, operated by Unesp of Ilha Solteira. The average annual precipitation is 1214 mm and the evapotranspiration is 1340 mm for the Bonança Station, while for the Santa Adélia Station, the average annual precipitation is 1204 mm and evapotranspiration is 1574 mm. With the available Water Storage (CAD) of 40 mm, the BHCs found seven months of water deficit in the soil, between March and October in the Bonança Station, located on the banks of the Tietê River and from April to November in the Santa Adélia Station, located in the northwest portion of the municipality. Excess water in the soil in the Bonança Station occurred between the months of November and February and in the Santa Adélia Station, between January and March. BHC showed a high risk of crop failure with annual crops in the municipality without the use of irrigation. Keywords: evapotranspiration, water deficit, irrigation, agrometeorology, Northwest Paulista.

Human-wildlife conflicts and drought in the greater Calakmul Region, Mexico: implications for tapir conservation

Wildlife conservation efforts in the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor have focused on reducing negative interactions between humans and charismatic species. In recent years, droughts have increased in frequency and intensity in southeastern Mexico exacerbating conflicts with wildlife as they compete with humans for limited water. In the Yucatan Peninsula, Greater Calakmul Region of southeastern Mexico, Baird’s tapirs (Tapirus bairdii) are increasingly encroaching into local villages (ejidos) in search of water. This behavior could increase tapir mortality from hunting by Calakmul ejidos residents. We evaluated the trends between annual precipitation and tapir sightings near or within Calakmul ejidos from 2008 to 2019 to determine if the frequency of reported conflicts increased relative to decreased precipitation. In addition, with community participation, from 2016 to 2018 we monitored one of the ejidos where human-tapir conflicts were reported to be increasing to better describe the nature of conflicts. We did not find any relationship between the number of tapir sightings reported and annual precipitation. However, more tapirs were documented near ejidos in 2019, which is one of the years with the lowest rainfall (626.6 mm) in the last decade. Tapirs were reported as the most common wildlife species observed at waterholes (35.4%) and apiaries (32.1%). Our findings suggested that water scarcity has increased tapirs’ incursions into human-populated areas and subsequently the potential for human-tapir conflicts. We recommend that managers consider developing alternative water sources that could mitigate human-tapir conflicts and contribute to the long-term viability of other wildlife species that inhabit the Greater Calakmul Region of southeastern Mexico.

Proportion and distribution of rain and snow in China from 1960 to 2018

Rainfall and snowfall have different effects on energy balance calculations and land-air interactions in terrestrial models. The identification of precipitation types is crucial to understand climate change dynamics and the utilization of water resources. However, information regarding precipitation types is not generally available. The precipitation obtained from meteorological stations across China recorded types only before 1979. This study parameterized precipitation types with air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure from 1960 to 1979, and then identified precipitation types after 1980. Results show that the main type of precipitation in China was rainfall, and the average annual rainfall days (amounts) across China accounted for 83.08% (92.55%) of the total annual precipitation days (amounts). The average annual snowfall days (amounts) in the northwestern region accounted for 32.27% (19.31%) of the total annual precipitation days (amounts), which is considerably higher than the national average. The average annual number of rainfall and snowfall days both displayed a downward trend while the average annual amounts of these two precipitation types showed an upward trend, but without significance at 0.1 levels. The annual number of rainfall and snowfall days in the southwestern region decreased significantly (-2.27 d/decade and -0.31 d/decade, p < 0.01). The annual rainfall amounts in the Jianghuai region increased significantly (40.70 mm/decade, p < 0.01), and the areas with the most significant increase in snowfall amounts were the northwestern (3.64 mm/decade, p < 0.01). These results can inform our understanding of the distribution and variation of precipitation with different types in China.

Active communities and growth of soil microorganisms are framed by mean annual precipitation in three California annual grasslands

Earth system models project altered precipitation regimes across much of the globe. In California, the winter wet season is predicted to extend into spring, and the summer dry period to lengthen. How altered precipitation will affect soil carbon (C) persistence is a key knowledge gap. However, we do not have a mechanistic understanding of how altered soil moisture regimes will affect microbial population dynamics. Using quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP), we compared total and active soil microbial communities across three California annual grassland ecosystems that span a rainfall gradient and have developed upon similar parent material. We also assessed multiple edaphic variables, including available C and the radiocarbon (14C) age of soil C. Samples were assayed in the wet season, when we expected environmental conditions would be most similar across sites. We hypothesized that the long-term legacy of soil water limitation would be reflected in lower community growth capacity at the driest site. We also predicted that actively growing communities would be more compositionally similar across the gradient than the total background microbiome. Across the three sites, edaphic parameters such as pH roughly sorted with mean annual precipitation, and soil carbon age increased with precipitation. Bacterial growth rates increased from the driest site to the intermediate site, and rates were comparable between the intermediate and wettest sites. These differences were persistent across major phyla, including the Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Proteobacteria. Taxonomic identity was a strong predictor of growth, such that the growth rates of a taxon at one site predicted its growth rates at the others. We think this fact, that taxa that grew quickly at one site tended to grow quickly at the others, is likely a consequence of genetically determined physiological traits, and is consistent with the idea that evolutionary history influences growth rate.