scholarly journals Local Coupled Equatorial Variability versus Remote ENSO Forcing in an Intermediate Coupled Model of the Tropical Atlantic

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (20) ◽  
pp. 5227-5252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serena Illig ◽  
Boris Dewitte
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Layer ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Layer Model ◽  
Intermediate Coupled Model ◽  
Mixed Layer Model

Abstract The relative roles played by the remote El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and the local air–sea interactions in the tropical Atlantic are investigated using an intermediate coupled model (ICM) of the tropical Atlantic. The oceanic component of the ICM consists of a six-baroclinic mode ocean model and a simple mixed layer model that has been validated from observations. The atmospheric component is a global atmospheric general circulation model developed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). In a forced context, the ICM realistically simulates both the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variability in the equatorial band, and the relaxation of the Atlantic northeast trade winds and the intensification of the equatorial westerlies in boreal spring that usually follows an El Niño event. The results of coupled experiments with or without Pacific ENSO forcing and with or without explicit air–sea interactions in the equatorial Atlantic indicate that the background energy in the equatorial Atlantic is provided by ENSO. However, the time scale of the variability and the magnitude of some peculiar events cannot be explained solely by ENSO remote forcing. It is demonstrated that the peak of SSTA variability in the 1–3-yr band as observed in the equatorial Atlantic is due to the local air–sea interactions and is not a linear response to ENSO. Seasonal phase locking in boreal summer is also the result of the local coupling. The analysis of the intrinsic sustainable modes indicates that the Atlantic El Niño is qualitatively a noise-driven stable system. Such a system can produce coherent interdecadal variability that is not forced by the Pacific or extraequatorial variability. It is shown that when a simple slab mixed layer model is embedded into the system to simulate the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST variability, the warming over NTA following El Niño events have characteristics (location and peak phase) that depend on air–sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic. In the model, the interaction between the equatorial mode and NTA can produce a dipolelike structure of the SSTA variability that evolves at a decadal time scale. The results herein illustrate the complexity of the tropical Atlantic ocean–atmosphere system, whose predictability jointly depends on ENSO and the connections between the Atlantic modes of variability.

scholarly journals Roles of initial ocean surface and subsurface states on successfully predicting 2006–2007 El Niño with an intermediate coupled model

Ocean Science ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 187-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Zheng ◽  
J. Zhu
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Surface Condition ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Initial Surface ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Successful Prediction ◽  
Intermediate Coupled Model

Abstract. The 2006–2007 El Niño event, an unusually weak event, was predicted by most models only after the warming in the eastern Pacific had commenced. In this study, on the basis of an El Niño prediction system, roles of the initial ocean surface and subsurface states on predicting the 2006–2007 El Niño event are investigated to determine conditions favorable for predicting El Niño growth and are isolated in three sets of hindcast experiments. The hindcast is initialized through assimilation of only the sea surface temperature (SST) observations to optimize the initial surface condition, only the sea level (SL) data to update the initial subsurface state, or both the SST and SL data. Results highlight that the hindcasts with three different initial states can all successfully predict the 2006–2007 El Niño event 1 year in advance and that the hindcast initialized by both the SST and SL data performs best. A comparison between the various sets of hindcast results further demonstrates that successful prediction is more significantly affected by the initial subsurface state than by the initial surface condition. The accurate initial surface state can trigger the easier prediction of the 2006–2007 El Niño, whereas a more reasonable initial subsurface state can contribute to improving the prediction in the growth of the warm event.

Interdecadal Change in Properties of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in an Intermediate Coupled Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 1369-1380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong-Hua Zhang ◽  
Antonio J. Busalacchi
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Intermediate Coupled Model

Abstract The role of subsurface temperature variability in modulating El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties is examined using an intermediate coupled model (ICM), consisting of an intermediate dynamic ocean model and a sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly model. An empirical procedure is used to parameterize the temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (Te) from sea level (SL) anomalies via a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis for use in simulating sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The ocean model is coupled to a statistical atmospheric model that estimates wind stress anomalies also from an SVD analysis. Using the empirical Te models constructed from two subperiods, 1963–79 (T63–79e) and 1980–96 (T80–96e), the coupled system exhibits strikingly different properties of interannual variability (the oscillation period, spatial structure, and temporal evolution). For the T63–79e model, the system features a 2-yr oscillation and westward propagation of SSTAs on the equator, while for the T80–96e model, it is characterized by a 5-yr oscillation and eastward propagation. These changes in ENSO properties are consistent with the behavior shift of El Niño observed in the late 1970s. Heat budget analyses further demonstrate a controlling role played by the vertical advection of subsurface temperature anomalies in determining the ENSO properties.

scholarly journals Multiscale Atmosphere–Ocean Interactions and the Low-Frequency Variability in the Equatorial Region

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (8) ◽  
pp. 2503-2523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enver Ramirez ◽  
Pedro L. da Silva Dias ◽  
Carlos F. M. Raupp
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Analytic Solutions ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Variability

Abstract In the present study a simplified multiscale atmosphere–ocean coupled model for the tropical interactions among synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual scales is developed. Two nonlinear equatorial β-plane shallow-water equations are considered: one for the ocean and the other for the atmosphere. The nonlinear terms are the intrinsic advective nonlinearity and the air–sea coupling fluxes. To mimic the main differences between the fast atmosphere and the slow ocean, suitable anisotropic multispace/multitime scalings are applied, yielding a balanced synoptic–intraseasonal–interannual–El Niño (SInEN) regime. In this distinguished balanced regime, the synoptic scale is the fastest atmospheric time scale, the intraseasonal scale is the intermediate air–sea coupling time scale (common to both fluid flows), and El Niño refers to the slowest interannual ocean time scale. The asymptotic SInEN equations reveal that the slow wave amplitude evolution depends on both types of nonlinearities. Analytic solutions of the reduced SInEN equations for a single atmosphere–ocean resonant triad illustrate the potential of the model to understand slow-frequency variability in the tropics. The resonant nonlinear wind stress allows a mechanism for the synoptic-scale atmospheric waves to force intraseasonal variability in the ocean. The intraseasonal ocean temperature anomaly coupled with the atmosphere through evaporation forces synoptic and intraseasonal atmospheric variability. The wave–convection coupling provides another source for higher-order atmospheric variability. Nonlinear interactions of intraseasonal ocean perturbations may also force interannual oceanic variability. The constrains that determine the establishment of the atmosphere–ocean resonant coupling can be viewed as selection rules for the excitation of intraseasonal variability (MJO) or even slower interannual variability (El Niño).

scholarly journals Retrospective El Niño Forecasts Using an Improved Intermediate Coupled Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (9) ◽  
pp. 2777-2802 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong-Hua Zhang ◽  
Stephen E. Zebiak ◽  
Richard Kleeman ◽  
Noel Keenlyside
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Coupled Systems ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Surface Layers ◽  
Intermediate Coupled Model ◽  
Baroclinic Modes ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract A new intermediate coupled model (ICM) is presented and employed to make retrospective predictions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The ocean dynamics is an extension of the McCreary baroclinic modal model to include varying stratification and certain nonlinear effects. A standard configuration is chosen with 10 baroclinic modes plus two surface layers, which are governed by Ekman dynamics and simulate the combined effects of the higher baroclinic modes from 11 to 30. A nonlinear correction associated with vertical advection of zonal momentum is incorporated and applied (diagnostically) only within the two surface layers, forced by the linear part through nonlinear advection terms. As a result of these improvements, the model realistically simulates the mean equatorial circulation and its variability. The ocean thermodynamics include an SST anomaly model with an empirical parameterization for the temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (Te), which is optimally calculated in terms of sea surface height (SSH) anomalies using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis technique from historical data. The ocean model is then coupled to a statistical atmospheric model that estimates wind stress (τ) anomalies based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis between SST anomalies observed and τ anomalies simulated from ECHAM4.5 (24-member ensemble mean). The coupled system exhibits realistic interannual variability associated with El Niño, including a predominant standing pattern of SST anomalies along the equator and coherent phase relationships among different atmosphere–ocean anomaly fields with a dominant 3-yr oscillation period. Twelve-month hindcasts/forecasts are made during the period 1963–2002, starting each month. Only observed SST anomalies are used to initialize the coupled predictions. As compared to other prediction systems, this coupled model has relatively small systematic errors in the predicted SST anomalies, and its SST prediction skill is apparently competitive with that of most advanced coupled systems incorporating sophisticated ocean data assimilation. One striking feature is that the model skill surpasses that of persistence at all lead times over the central equatorial Pacific. Prediction skill is strongly dependent on the season, with the correlations attaining a minimum in spring and a maximum in fall. Cross-validation experiments are performed to examine the sensitivity of the prediction skill to the data periods selected for training the empirical Te model. It is demonstrated that the artificial skill introduced by using a dependently constructed Te model is not significant. Independent forecasts are made for the period 1997–2002 when no dependent data are included in constructing the two empirical models (Te and τ). The coupled model has reasonable success in predicting transition to warm phase and to cold phase in the spring of 1997 and 1998, respectively. Potential problems and further improvements are discussed with the new intermediate prediction system.

The Role of Ekman Ocean Heat Transport in the Northern Hemisphere Response to ENSO

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (21) ◽  
pp. 5688-5707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
James D. Scott
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Layer ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Layer Model ◽  
The North ◽  
La Nina

Abstract The influence of oceanic Ekman heat transport (Qek) on air–sea variability associated with ENSO teleconnections is examined via a pair of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. In the mixed layer model (MLM) experiment, observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the years 1950–99 are specified over the tropical Pacific, while a grid of mixed layer models is coupled to the AGCM elsewhere over the global oceans. The same experimental design was used in the Ekman transport/mixed layer model (EKM) experiment with the addition of Qek in the mixed layer ocean temperature equation. The ENSO signal was evaluated using differences between composites of El Niño and La Niña events averaged over the 16 ensemble members in each experiment. In both experiments the Aleutian low deepened and the resulting surface heat fluxes cooled the central North Pacific and warmed the northeast Pacific during boreal winter in El Niño relative to La Niña events. Including Qek amplified the ENSO-related SSTs by ∼⅓ in the central and northeast North Pacific, producing anomalies comparable to those in nature. Differences between the ENSO-induced atmospheric circulation anomalies in the EKM and MLM experiments were not significant over the North Pacific. The sea level pressure (SLP) and SST response to ENSO over the Atlantic strongly projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the SST tripole pattern in observations and both model experiments. The La Niña anomalies, which are stronger than during El Niño, include high pressure and positive SSTs in the central North Atlantic. Including Ekman transport enhanced the Atlantic SST anomalies, which in contrast to the Pacific, appeared to strengthen the overlying atmospheric circulation.

scholarly journals Fast stratocumulus time scale in mixed layer model and large eddy simulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 206-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. Jones ◽  
C. S. Bretherton ◽  
P. N. Blossey
Keyword(s):  
Large Eddy Simulation ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Layer Model ◽  
Eddy Simulation ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
Mixed Layer Model
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