Impact of Loss of U.S. Microwave and Radio Occultation Observations in Operational Numerical Weather Prediction in Support of the U.S. Data Gap Mitigation Activities

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lidia Cucurull ◽  
Richard A. Anthes
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Radio Occultation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Advanced Technology ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Aqua Satellite ◽  
Data Gap ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The U.S

Abstract As the U.S. polar-orbiting satellites NOAA-15, -18, and -19 and NASA’s Aqua satellite reach the ends of their lives, there may be a loss in redundancy between their microwave (MW) soundings, and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) on the Suomi–National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite. With the expected delay in the launch of the next generation of U.S. polar-orbiting satellites, there may be a loss in at least some of the U.S. MW data. There may also be a significant decrease in the number of radio occultation (RO) observations. The mainstay of the global RO system, the COSMIC constellation of six satellites is already past the end of its nominal lifetime. A replacement of RO soundings in the tropics is planned with the launch of COSMIC-2 satellites in 2016. However, the polar constellation of COSMIC-2 will not be launched until 2018 or 2019, and complete funding for this constellation is not assured. Using the NCEP operational forecast system, forecasts for March–April 2013 are carried out in which various combinations of the U.S. MW and all RO soundings are removed. The main results are that the forecasts are only slightly degraded in the Northern Hemisphere, even with all of these observations removed. The decrease in accuracy is considerably greater in the Southern Hemisphere, where the greatest forecast degradation occurs when the RO observations are removed. Overall, these results indicate that the possible gap in RO observations is potentially more significant than the possible gap in the U.S. MW data.

scholarly journals The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessie C. Carman ◽  
Daniel P. Eleuterio ◽  
Timothy C. Gallaudet ◽  
Gerald L. Geernaert ◽  
Patrick A. Harr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
The United States ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Interagency Coordination ◽  
Research Technology ◽  
Prediction Capability ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The United States has had three operational numerical weather prediction centers since the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit was closed in 1958. This led to separate paths for U.S. numerical weather prediction, research, technology, and operations, resulting in multiple community calls for better coordination. Since 2006, the three operational organizations—the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Navy, and the National Weather Service—and, more recently, the Department of Energy, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, have been working to increase coordination. This increasingly successful effort has resulted in the establishment of a National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) office with responsibility to further interagency coordination and collaboration. It has also resulted in sharing of data through an operational global ensemble, common software standards, and model components among the agencies. This article discusses the drivers, the progress, and the future of interagency collaboration.

50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction

2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (5) ◽  
pp. 639-650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristine Harper ◽  
Louis W. Uccellini ◽  
Eugenia Kalnay ◽  
Kenneth Carey ◽  
Lauren Morone
Keyword(s):  
Air Force ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
50Th Anniversary ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The United States ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
American Meteorological Society ◽  
College Park ◽  
The U.S

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), National Weather Association, and American Meteorological Society (AMS) cosponsored a “Symposium on the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction,” on 14–17 June 2004 at the University of Maryland, College Park in College Park, Maryland. Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the United States started with the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (JNWPU) on 1 July 1954, staffed by members of the U.S. Weather Bureau, the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy. The origins of NCEP, AFWA, and FNMOC can all be traced to the JNWPU. The symposium celebrated the pioneering developments in NWP and the remarkable improvements in forecast skill and support of the nation's economy, well being, and national defense achieved over the last 50 years. This essay was inspired by the presentations from that symposium.

scholarly journals COSMIC Radio Occultation Processing: Cross-Center Comparison and Validation

2011 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 737-751 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael E. Gorbunov ◽  
A. V. Shmakov ◽  
Stephen S. Leroy ◽  
Kent B. Lauritsen
Keyword(s):  
Data Processing ◽  
Radio Occultation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Processing System ◽  
Fourier Integral ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Cosmic Radio ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Height Range ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract A radio occultation data processing system (OCC) was developed for numerical weather prediction and climate benchmarking. The data processing algorithms use the well-established Fourier integral operator–based methods, which ensure a high accuracy of retrievals. The system as a whole, or in its parts, is currently used at the Global Navigation Satellite System Receiver for Atmospheric Sounding (GRAS) Satellite Application Facility at the Danish Meteorological Institute, German Weather Service, and Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change. A statistical comparison of the inversions of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) data by the system herein, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) data products, and ECMWF analyses is presented. Forty days of 2007 and 2008 were processed (from 5 days in the middle of each season) for the comparison of OCC and ECMWF, and 20 days of April 2009 were processed for the comparison of OCC, UCAR, and ECMWF. The OCC and UCAR inversions are consistent. For the tropics, the systematic difference between OCC and UCAR in the retrieved refractivity in the 2–30-km height interval does not exceed 0.1%; in particular, in the 9–25-km interval it does not exceed 0.03%. Below 1 km in the tropics the OCC – UCAR bias reaches 0.2%, which is explained by different cutoff and filtering schemes implemented in the two systems. The structure of the systematic OCC – ECMWF difference below 4 km changes in 2007, 2008, and 2009, which is explained by changes in the ECMWF analyses and assimilation schemes. It is estimated that in the 4–30-km height range the OCC occultation processing system obtains refractivities with a bias not exceeding 0.2%. The random error ranges from 0.3%–0.5% in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere to about 2% below 4 km. The estimate of the bias below 4 km can currently be done with an accuracy of 0.5%–1% resulting from the structural uncertainty of the radio occultation (RO) data reflecting the insufficient knowledge of the atmospheric small-scale structures and instrumental errors. The OCC – UCAR bias is below the level of the structural uncertainty.

The Common Community Physics Package (CCPP): bridging the gap between research and operations to improve U.S. numerical weather prediction capabilities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dom Heinzeller ◽  
Grant Firl ◽  
Ligia Bernardet ◽  
Laurie Carson ◽  
Man Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Initial Development ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Computational Performance ◽  
The Common ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Physical Parameterizations

<p>Improving numerical weather prediction systems depends critically on the ability to transition innovations from research to operations (R2O) and to provide feedback from operations to research (O2R). This R2O2R cycle, sometimes referred to as "crossing the valley of death", has long been identified as a major challenge for the U.S. weather enterprise.</p><p>As part of a broader effort to bridge this gap and advance U.S. weather prediction capabilities, the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) with staff at NOAA and NCAR has developed the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) for application in NOAA's Unified Forecasting System (UFS). The CCPP consists of a library of physical parameterizations and a framework, which interfaces the physics with atmospheric models based on metadata information and standardized interfaces. The CCPP physics library contains physical parameterizations from the current operational U.S. global, mesoscale and high-resolution models, future implementation candidates, and additional physics from NOAA, NCAR and other organizations. The range of physics options in the CCPP physics library enables the application of the UFS - as well as every other model using the CCPP - across scales, from now-casting to seasonal and from high-resolution regional to global ensembles.</p><p>While the initial development of the CCPP was centered around the FV3 (Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere) dynamical core of the UFS, its focus has since widened. The CCPP is also used by the DTC Single Column Model to support a hierarchical testing strategy, and by the next generation NEPTUNE (Navy Environmental Prediction sysTem Utilizing the Numa corE) model of the Naval Research Laboratory. Further, and most importantly, NOAA and NCAR recently signed an agreement to jointly develop the CCPP framework as a single, standardized way to interface physics with their models of the atmosphere (and other compartments of the Earth system). This places the CCPP in the heart of several of the U.S. flagship models and opens the door for bringing innovations from a large research community into operations.</p><p>In this contribution, we will present a brief overview of the concept of the CCPP, its technical design and the requirements for parameterizations to be considered as CCPP-compliant. We will describe the integration of CCPP in the UFS and touch upon the challenges in creating a flexible modeling framework while maintaining high computational performance. We will also provide information on how to obtain, use and contribute to the CCPP, as well as on the future development of the CCPP framework and upcoming additions to the CCPP physics library.</p>

Physical initialization for numerical weather prediction over the tropics

Tellus B ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 53-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. N. KRISHNAMURTI ◽  
JISHAN XUE ◽  
H. S. BEDI ◽  
KEVIN INGLES ◽  
D. OOSTERHOF
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Physical Initialization ◽  
The Tropics
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