Equity Markets, Block Realignments and the UK Exchange Rate

2002 ◽  
Vol 181 ◽  
pp. 38-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
The Us ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

In recent weeks, equity markets have been very weak and the euro exchange rate has risen by more than 10 per cent against the dollar. The UK's effective exchange rate has also depreciated, removing some, but not all, of the overvaluation we identified in the April Review. We report on recent movements in table 1, and their implications are discussed in the UK and World forecast chapters in this Review. To an extent the movements in the US stock markets and the exchange rate are linked, but there does seem to be some ‘excess strength’ in the euro, which will in turn contribute to the weakness of Euro Area equity prices.

scholarly journals Effect of Exchange Rate Returns on Equity Prices: Evidence from South Africa and Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Jibrin Daggash ◽  
Terfa W. Abraham
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Uk

This paper examines the exchange rate returns of the Rand (relative to the US dollar) and the Naira (relative to the US dollar) for the presence of volatility. It also examines the effect of the exchange rate returns on the performance of their respective stock market. While it was found that the returns of the South African Rand was volatile, the Nigerian naira was not. Estimating the effect of exchange rate returns and crude oil price on the stock market indices of both countries showed that exchange rate return have a positive effect on the performance of the Nigerian stock exchange thus, confirming the stock flow hypothesis for Nigeria and refuting same for South Africa. Although the VAR granger causality identifies short run fluctuation of the naira as a significant factor affecting the performance of the Nigerian stock exchange in the short run, the Johannesburg stock exchange was found to be mostly affected by short run changes in the Rand and the UK FTSE 100. The paper concludes that policies aimed at stabilizing exchange rate and encouraing more non-oil stocks to be quoted in the Nigerian stock exchange will important. For the Johanesburg stock exchange, raising the listing requirement for firms quoted in the UK FTSE 100 and also seeking listing or already listed in the JSE will be a plausible idea. For both countries, however, curtailing swings in their exchange rate returns would help attract new investments and sustain existing ones hence, helping to spur growth.

scholarly journals Impacts of the monetary policy on the exchange rate: case study of Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-237
Author(s):  
Van Anh Pham
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Quantitative Results ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and analyze impacts of the monetary policy (MP) – money aggregate and interest rate – on the exchange rate in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The study uses data over the period of 2008–2018 and applies the vector autoregression model, namely recursive restriction and sign restriction approaches. Findings The main empirical findings are as follows: a contraction of the money aggregate significantly leads to the real effective exchange rate (REER) depreciating and then appreciating; a tightening of the interest rate immediately causes the REER appreciating and then depreciating; and both the money aggregate and the interest rate strongly determine fluctuations of the REER. Originality/value The quantitative results imply that the MP affects the REER considerably.

MANAGING EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: A COMPARATIVE COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS OF SINGAPORE, 1994–2003

2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (04) ◽  
pp. 543-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER WILSON ◽  
HENRY SHANG REN NG
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Rate System ◽  
The Us ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This paper looks at how Singapore's exchange rate regime has coped with exchange rate volatility, by comparing the performance of Singapore's actual regime in minimizing the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and the bilateral rate against the US dollar with some counterfactual regimes and the corresponding performance of eight other East Asian countries. In contrast to previous counterfactual exercises, we apply a more disaggregated methodology for the trade weights, a larger number of trade partners and ARCH/GARCH techniques to capture the time-varying characteristics of volatility. Our findings confirm that Singapore's managed floating exchange rate system has delivered relatively low currency volatility. Although there are gains in volatility reduction for all countries in the sample from the adoption of either a unilateral or a common basket peg, particularly post-Asian crisis, these gains are relatively low for Singapore, largely because of low actual volatility. There are additional gains for non-dollar peggers from stabilizing intra-east Asian exchange rates against the dollar if they were to adopt a basket peg, especially post-crisis, but the gains for Singapore are again relatively modest. Finally, the conclusion from previous counterfactual studies that there is little difference between a unilateral basket peg and a common basket peg in terms of stability reduction is confirmed.

The UK Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 152 ◽  
pp. 9-28
Author(s):  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Narrow Range ◽  
Inflationary Pressure ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The sterling exchange rate was unusually stable in the two years following its departure from the ERM in September 1992. In effective terms it fluctuated within a fairly narrow range around an average of about 89 on the new effective exchange rate index and this was approximately the level at which it ended 1994. Since then it has depreciated by over 5 per cent and at the time of writing (11 May) there is some uncertainty as to whether it will fall further. This largely unexpected depreciation is of sufficient size to influence the development of the UK economy and in particular to increase the amount of inflationary pressure at a time when there are doubts about whether monetary policy has been tightened enough to deal with that which already exists.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ALGERIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Touitou ◽  
Yacine Laib ◽  
Ahmed Boudeghdegh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Real ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Growth Economic

The transmission of changes in the exchange rate to macroeconomic performance has led to debates about their impact, particularly on growth economic. Many economists consider the exchange rate as a transmission channel of economic policy for open economies. This article focuses to determining empirically the impact of the exchange rate on economic growth. For this, we will adopt an approach in terms of the vector autoregressive model (VAR) with four variables namely, the real effective exchange rate, economic growth, financial development with credit indicators and finally the money supply. The empirical results allow us to confirm our theoretical expectations that decline in the real effective exchange rate of the dinar increases the growth economy through public spending for consumption and is stimulated by oil taxation.

Exploring exchange rate based policy coordination in SADC

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 576-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulatu Fekadu Zerihun ◽  
Martinus C. Breitenbach ◽  
Francis Kemegue
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Variables ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Purpose This paper explores the possibilities for policy coordination in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as well as real effective exchange rate (REER) stability as a prerequisite towards sensible monetary integration. The underlying hypothesis goes with the assertion that countries meeting optimum currency area conditions face more stable exchange rates. Design/methodology/approach The quantitative analysis encompasses 12 SADC member states over the period 1995-2012. Correlation matrixes, dynamic pooled mean group (PMG) and mean group (MG) estimators and real effective exchange rate (REER) and real exchange rate (RER) equilibrium and misalignment analysis are carried out to arrive at the conclusions. Findings The study finds that the structural variables used in the PMG model show that there are common fiscal and monetary policy variables that determine REER/RER in the region. However, the exchange rate equilibrium misalignment analysis reveals that SADC economies are characterised by persistent overvaluation at least in the short term. This calls for further sustained policy coordination in the region. Practical implications The findings in this paper have important policy implications for economic stability and for the attempt of policy coordination in SADC region for the proposed monetary integration to proceed. Originality/value This study is the first attempt that relates the exchange rate as a policy coordination instrument among SADC economies.

Risk and the UK exchange rate

2008 ◽  
Vol 203 ◽  
pp. 54-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Dawn Holland
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
The Past ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Uk ◽  
High Level ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Sterling has fallen markedly against other currencies in the past few months, and in January reached its lowest point against the euro (or its equivalent) since the last quarter of 1996, as we can see from figure 1, which uses the first three weeks of January 2008 as an indicator of the value that will be achieved in the whole first quarter. Sterling has also weakened against the dollar in the past few months, although it remains at a high level. In effective terms, sterling fell on average by 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, and in early January it was more than 6 per cent lower than the average for the previous quarter. The fall was largely unanticipated, and the effective exchange rate for the first quarter of 2008 is more than 7 per cent below where we assumed it would be in October 2007.

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