The UK Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
List Type ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
The Uk

Economy to grow 2.3 per cent in 2016 and 2.7 per cent in 2017.Inflation rate of just 0.3 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent in 2017, reaching 2.1 per cent in 2018.Bank Rate now expected to remain ½ per cent until the second half of 2016.Chancellor forecast to miss the primary target of the Fiscal Mandate by a slim margin.Productivity performance the largest domestic risk, but emerging market slowdowns, financial market volatility and policy missteps also represent risks.

The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2016 ◽  
Vol 238 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Policy Committee

The economy will grow 2 per cent in 2016 before slowing to 1.4 per cent in 2017: with the triggering of Article 50 there are downside risks to next year's outlook.Consumer price inflation will accelerate, peaking at around 4 per cent in the second half of 2017, and this will impact on real disposable incomeThe Monetary Policy Committee is expected to look through this near-term inflation and hold Bank Rate at ¼ per cent until 2019.Sterling is expected to remain at around $1.22 and €1.11 this year and next.

The UK Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Student Loans ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
List Type ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

The UK's future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided even though the Article 50 exit date is less than two months away. Brexit uncertainty has intensified since our last forecast and is now evident in various indicators.Our main forecast is conditional on a ‘soft’ Brexit scenario. Under this scenario, GDP growth stabilises at around 1.5 per cent this year before recovering to 1.7 per cent in 2020. CPI inflation eases to the target level of 2 per cent over this period.We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points in August. We also expect the Chancellor to spend more than the latest OBR forecast. That, together with the reclassification of student loans in public deficit data, will mean that the Chancellor is set to breach the fiscal mandate.There is a chance that the UK exits the EU without a deal at the end of March. Policymakers will have more room to inject stimulus if inflation expectations remain anchored.

The UK Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 232 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
The Uk

The economy will grow by 2.5 per cent in 2015, 2.4 per cent in 2016.Unemployment will stabilise at about 5¼ per cent.CPI inflation rate remains close to zero for most of the year; we do not expect interest rates to rise until the beginning of 2016.

scholarly journals The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

We have revised lower our GDP forecast for 2018 to just under 1.5 per cent mainly due to weak performance in the first quarter. But the slowdown is likely to be temporary.The Commentary in this Review builds a case for higher government spending. We have, as a result, allowed for higher total managed expenditure resulting in a somewhat slower fiscal adjustment than presently planned.Following the exchange rate depreciation of June 2016, annual consumer price inflation peaked at 3.1 per cent in November 2017 and is forecast to ease back to the target rate of 2 per cent over the next eight quarters.Because of the dip in economic performance we expect the timing of our next increase in Bank Rate to be delayed to August but reiterate that the MPC should remain on a gentle path of monetary policy normalisation.

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