The World Overseas

1965 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 22-32

There was an increase of some 5 per cent in the real output of industrial countries between 1963 and 1964, but as far as Europe was concerned, much of the increase occurred during the second half of 1963. The actual increase during the year was only about 4 per cent (chart 7).Industrial production in the United States and Japan increased rapidly throughout the year, though at a somewhat declining rate. In Europe the pattern was more varied. Expansion was strong and accelerating in West Germany, but the rapid rise of the second half of 1963 was followed by stagnation in France and the United Kingdom and by an actual decline in Italy. Italian production began to recover towards the end of the year.

1976 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 33-63

The fall in output in the industrial countries in 1975 was substantially greater than we and most other observers foresaw a year ago.After big revisions of the national accounts for the United States, the fall in aggregate output in the member countries of OECD now works out a good deal smaller on our estimates than it did in November. But the final figure still seems likely to be close to 1¾ per cent, compared with our February forecast of ½ per cent. For industrial production we were much wider of the mark, the actual decline being 8–9 per cent as against the 2 per cent that we predicted. Geographically our error was heavily concentrated among the major European countries including the United Kingdom—on the latest figures we actually under-predicted United States output by a substantial amount—and it appears to have sprung from two main sources.


1967 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. 17-27

The economic situation among the industrial countries has been developing less favourably than we envisaged in May. In the second quarter there seems to have been only a modest recovery in output in the United States and a further decline in West Germany. The sluggishness of demand in these two countries is having repercussions on the economies of some of their chief trading partners, and for the industrial countries as a whole there was probably little change in industrial production in the second quarter.


1967 ◽  
Vol 40 ◽  
pp. 14-25

The growth of world industrial production slowed down in the fourth quarter of last year and in spite of relatively mild weather in Western Europe there must have been an actual fall in the first quarter of 1967. The change of trend has been most marked in West Germany, but also has affected a number of other countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom.


1975 ◽  
Vol 73 ◽  
pp. 25-40

The recession had probably reached its trough by the middle of the year. Total output in the United States hardly changed in the second quarter and the industrial component began to rise slightly in June, while in Japan industrial production has been increasing since March. On the other hand it now appears that in a number of other industrial countries, notably France and West Germany, output in the early months of the year was substantially lower than we suggested in May and the decline in OECD's aggregate GDP will probably be of the order of 2–2½ per cent for 1975 as a whole. In 1976 we now expect an increase of nearly 5 per cent.


1965 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 19-29

Between the end of 1964 and the middle of 1965 there was some increase in the rate of growth of world industrial production, entirely due to the rapid expansion in the United States and Canada. The rate of growth in Europe apparently fell slightly partly owing to the relative stagnation in the United Kingdom, but also because of some slowing down in West Germany and the Netherlands and slight falls in Belgium and France which were not, taken together, fully offset by the upswing in Italy. Japanese production has remained virtually unchanged for a year (table 10).


1978 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
pp. 35-56

The growth of output in the industrial countries continues to lag behind their oflicial targets and our own expectations (see the appendix). More complete data confirm our February estimate that aggregate production in the OECD area increased by only about 3½ per cent in 1977, leaving unemployment higher at the end of the year than at the beginning in all major countries other than the United States. Even allowing for measures of fiscal stimulation in most of the major countries we do not expect much change in either 1978 or 1979. Growth should be rather faster in Western Europe (particularly this year in the United Kingdom and next year in France, Italy and some of the smaller countries), but we expect these accelerations to be roughly balanced by progressively smaller increases in output in the United States.


1972 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 26-39

Production in the industrial countries has been increasing a little faster than we suggested in May—notably in the United States, where there was a sharp rise in the rate of economic growth in the second quarter. But our forecast of the growth in the aggregate real output of the members of OECD is still in the 5-5½ per cent range for this year. We put it a little higher for 1973, when we expect a slightly slower rate of expansion in North America to be outweighed by faster growth in Japan and Western Europe.


1969 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 21-30

The expansion of the world economy continues to exceed expectations, largely because last year's tax surcharge has failed to limit growth in the United States to the extent intended. World industrial production, adjusted for the effects of special factors (see below) rose at an annual rate of about 8 per cent between the second quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, and the momentum is probably sufficient for an increase of at least 4½ per cent in 1969 in the combined national outputs of the industrial countries, although the rate of expansion may slow down considerably before the middle of next year.


1965 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 22-32

During the last twelve months there was some slowing down in the growth of industrial production in the main industrial countries as compared with the previous twelve months, but this occurred for the most part during the second half of 1964, with France and Italy registering actual falls in production, and output in the United States being adversely affected by the motor car strike in October. The first half of 1965 has seen a sharp acceleration of the rate of expansion overall, but this has by no means been the universal experience. French production has ceased to fall but remains stagnant and output in Italy is showing only a modest rise. One of the main factors in the high rate of expansion this year has been the exceptional rise in the United States, partly due to abnormal stockbuilding of motor cars and steel. Growth in Germany has been somewhat slower during 1965 as it has also in this country, and production in Japan, which increased by over 30 per cent during the last two years, has been completely stagnant this year (table 12).


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