Preliminary results from the 2018 Census by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) have shown interesting news for Colombia, the major one probably being that instead of the projected 50 millions of habitants expected in 2018 in the Census 2005 projections, Colombia’s population in 2018 was 45.5 million (DANE 2018). Although, the differences in population projections vs. censuses totals have been described across countries in Latin America 1, Colombia seems to be a country with a major gap. Knowing how many people live in the country is important for governmental planning, public spending, and to set up goals according to public needs. Therefore, these news from the 2018 Census were received with caution among different sectors.
This is not the first time something like this happens in the country as projections from the 1993 Census also did not match the population estimates from the 2005 Census, with the projection being short by 3,150,552 individuals. Back then, the difference between the 1993 projections and the 2005 Census results was attributable to differences in collection methods used in 2005 and an initial overestimation of the 1993 census population (1,051,965 individuals), an overestimation of natality rates, and also an underestimation of emigration rates (mainly for women of reproductive age) 2. Similarly, it possible that the current differences between 2005 projections and the 2018 Census results were caused by methodological issues, but also social changes, such as the reduction in natality rates linked to economy improvements and a growing middle-class.
An important problem with differences in projected vs. recent Census data is that trajectories of economic or health indicators used to describe progress or regressions in these sectors become challenged by them. An issue is that there is a jump in the trajectory of disease rates when using the 2018 population estimate instead of the 2005 projected for 2018. This jump is explained by the change in the denominator used to calculate the rate, not by an actual increase in the number of cases. A good example is the change in the homicide rate in Cali, where the 2005 Census projections differed from the 2018 census estimates by 28.7% (for Colombia, projections were over the 2018 estimate by 9.5%) 3. The population for Cali in 2018 with the 2018 Census was estimated to be 1.9 million, which is even lower than the population estimated for 2005 with the 2005 Census (2.1 million) 3.