Chapter II. The Forecast to 1972

1971 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
pp. 22-37
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Strike Activity ◽  
Production Index ◽  
The Third ◽  
Industrial Production Index

After rising slightly between the second and third quarters, output in the economy as a whole seems to have stagnated in the fourth quarter. Because of the dip in the first quarter of the year, however, output in the second half of the year as a whole may have been 2½–3 per cent up on the first half (at annual rates). The course of the industrial production index has been affected by strike activity, making it more difficult to use as a base for estimating GDP. But taking the average of the three months' figures in the fourth quarter (there were erratic movements month to month), and comparing it with values for base periods less affected by strikes than was the third quarter, gives a figure for GDP which suggests that output in the economy as a whole was stagnant in the last six months of 1970. The recent rise in unemployment is consistent with this picture.

The Economic Situation: Chapter I. the Home Economy

1970 ◽  
Vol 53 ◽  
pp. 4-20
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Subsequent Recovery ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Underlying Trend

In previous Reviews, we had suggested that the economy would be likely to encounter a phase of particularly sluggish growth in demand and output. The performance since the beginning of this year suggests that this view, so far from being too pessimistic, was actually an overstatement of the prospect for expansion. The national accounts figures for the first quarter, just published, indicate a drop in activity between the fourth quarter of last year and the first of this : but while all three measures of gross domestic product (income, output, and expenditure) agree in this movement, as they do also in showing a fairly sharp rise in the fourth quarter of 1969, it seems probable that they are giving an exaggerated picture of the movement of the economy in these two quarters. This is particularly true of the expenditure measure, which incorporates big changes in stockbuilding between the two quarters. These are probably associated with timing discrepancies in the recording of other elements of expenditure. But even assuming that this is so (which would imply that the first quarter fall indicated by the unadjusted ‘compromise’ figure of GDP in table 1 is overstated), the evidence of the industrial production index gives no reason for thinking that the subsequent recovery of GDP likely to be recorded for the second quarter will be very much more than a ‘statistical’ one, correcting for the previous aberration. The average value of the industrial production index for April and May was rather below that of the first quarter and although some recovery can be expected for June (especially as the May figure was affected by strikes), the underlying trend of the economy during the first six months of the year must appear, at best, to have been no more than slightly upward. The steep rise in unemployment recorded in June—following six months of little change—is consistent with a lagged response to this trend in output.

Chapter III. Production

1965 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 31-43
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Industrial Production Index

The industrial production index gave a rather misleading impression of stagnation in the middle of the year. There had been a sharp rise from the fourth quarter of 1963 to the first quarter of 1964; then the index was flat for two quarters; and finally in the fourth quarter there was another substantial jump. This made the increase during the year (between the fourth quarter of 1963 and 1964) 5½ per cent. For the year as a whole industrial production was 7½ per cent higher than in 1963. This apparent slowing-down in the middle of the year was probably partly genuine —there is some evidence for it in the estimates from the side of expenditure (page 5)—and partly probably a change in seasonal patterns.

Industrial Output in the USSR and Russia, 1861—2012. Part II. Crises and Cycles

2013 ◽  
pp. 138-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Russian Empire ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Russian Industry ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Cyclical Volatility

Calculation of the aggregated "consensus" industrial production index has made it possible to date cyclical turning points and to measure the depth and length of the main industrial recessions in Russian Empire/USSR/Russia for the last century and a half. The most important causes of all these recessions are described. The cyclical volatility of Soviet/Russian industry is compared to that of American one.

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY WITH THE ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (15) ◽  
pp. 299-312
Author(s):  
Özlem KARADAĞ AK
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of economic growth and inflation on unemployment for the period 2005:1- 2020:9 in Turkey by using ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) model. In the study, firstly unit root tests were carried out to determine whether economic growth (ind) and inflation (cpi) have long and short-term effects on unemployment (unemp). Then, the ARDL method was used to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the series in the model where the unemployment rate is the dependent variable, the Industrial Production Index representing economic growth and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) representing inflation. Instead of GDP, the Industrial Production Index was preferred both to harmonize with the monthly data and to make a production-based analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was a statistically significant cointegration relationship between the variables, and the short-term relationship was analyzed with the error correction model (ECM). As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that there is a cointegration relationship between unemployment, inflation rate and economic growth in Turkey. According to the results of the analysis, negative between unemployment and industrial production index; It is seen that there is a positive relationship between unemployment and inflation.

Chapter IV. Industrial Production

1980 ◽  
Vol 91 ◽  
pp. 68-77
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
The Third ◽  
High Level

Total industrial production (excluding output of oil and gas) and manufacturing production were almost unchanged in 1979 (table 1). This is rather below what might have been expected to accompany a revival of personal income which increased consumption by 4 per cent. The pattern of output through the year was strongly influenced by the weather, which reduced output in the first quarter, and by strikes by the lorry drivers in the first quarter and by engineering and car workers in the third. The fall in output in the first quarter was offset by a high level in the summer, but after the third quarter strikes the level in the fourth quarter recovered to only about ½ per cent above the end-1978 level.

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