Updating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

Actuarial scales like the Static-99R are widely used to predict an individual’s risk of sexual recidivism. However, current actuarial scales only provide rates of detected sex offenses over 10-year follow-up and do not account for all recidivism risk factors. Therefore, some forensic evaluators extrapolate, adjust, or override recidivism rates derived from actuarial scales to predict the lifetime risk of committed offenses that accounts for external risk factors, those not addressed by the actuarial scales. However, critics contend that altering rates from actuarial scales degrades their predictive validity. This article makes the case for extrapolating risk for time of exposure and for evidence-based external risk factors. It proposes using odds ratios (ORs) from case-control studies to adjust predictions from follow-up cohort studies. Finally, it shows how evaluators can apply ORs and their margins of error to sex offender risk assessment.

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Using Logistic Regression Modeling to Predict Sexual Recidivism

Sexual Abuse ◽

10.1177/1079063211429470 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 24 (4) ◽

pp. 350-377 ◽

Cited By ~ 36

Author(s):

Grant Duwe ◽

Pamela J. Freske

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Sex Offenders ◽

Sex Offender ◽

Assessment Tools ◽

Sexual Recidivism ◽

Recidivism Rates ◽

Contemporary Sample ◽

Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽

Likelihood Model ◽

High Level

This study presents the results from efforts to revise the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), one of the most widely used sex offender risk-assessment tools. The updated instrument, the MnSOST-3, contains nine individual items, six of which are new. The population for this study consisted of the cross-validation sample for the MnSOST-R ( N = 220) and a contemporary sample of 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. To score and select items for the MnSOST-3, we used predicted probabilities generated from a multiple logistic regression model. We used bootstrap resampling to not only refine our selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. The results indicate the MnSOST-3 has a relatively high level of predictive discrimination, as evidenced by an apparent AUC of .821 and an optimism-corrected AUC of .796. The findings show the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest risk offenders. Although estimating a penalized maximum likelihood model did not improve the overall calibration, the results suggest the MnSOST-3 may still be useful in helping identify high-risk offenders whose sexual recidivism risk exceeds 50%. Results from an interrater reliability assessment indicate the instrument, which is scored in a Microsoft Excel application, has an adequate degree of consistency across raters (ICC = .83 for both consistency and absolute agreement).

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Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology ◽

10.1177/0306624x15587912 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 60 (16) ◽

pp. 1928-1941 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Richard W. Elwood

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Sex Offenders ◽

Sex Offender ◽

Single Case ◽

Bayesian Probability ◽

Sexual Recidivism ◽

Ongoing Debate ◽

Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽

Frequentist Probability

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals’ risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism.

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Estimating the probability of sexual recidivism among men charged or convicted of sexual offences: Evidence-based guidance for applied evaluators

Sexual Offending: Theory, Research, and Prevention ◽

10.5964/sotrap.4283 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 ◽

Author(s):

L. Maaike Helmus

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Multiple Scales ◽

Added Value ◽

Evidence Based ◽

Sexual Recidivism ◽

Sexual Offences ◽

Empirical Estimates ◽

Sex Offences ◽

Actuarial Risk ◽

External Risk

Risk assessment is routinely applied in forensic decision-making. Although relative risk information from risk scales is robust across diverse samples and settings, estimates of the absolute probability of sexual recidivism are not. Nonetheless, absolute recidivism estimates are still necessary in some evaluations. This paper summarizes research and offers guidance on evidence-based practices for assessing the probability of recidivism, organized largely around questions commonly asked in court. Overall, estimating the probability of sexual recidivism is difficult and should be undertaken with humility and circumspection. That being said, research favours empirical-actuarial risk tools for this task, more structured scales, and the use of multiple scales. Professional overrides of risk scale results should not be used under any circumstances. Paradoxically, however, professional judgement is still required in some circumstances. Risk scales do not consider all relevant risk factors, but the added value of external risk factors reaches a point of diminishing returns and may or may not be incremental (or worse, can degrade accuracy). There are reasons actuarial risk scales may both underestimate recidivism (e.g., undetected offending, short follow-ups) and overestimate recidivism (e.g., inclusion of sex offences not of interest in some referral questions, data on declining crime and recidivism rates, newer studies demonstrating overestimation of recidivism). Given all these considerations and the need for humility, in the absence of exceptional circumstances, I would not deviate too far from empirical estimates.

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A systematic review on the effectiveness of sex offender risk assessment tools in predicting sexual recidivism of adult male sex offenders

Clinical Psychology Review ◽

10.1016/j.cpr.2012.12.002 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 33 (2) ◽

pp. 287-316 ◽

Cited By ~ 36

Author(s):

Ruth J. Tully ◽

Shihning Chou ◽

Kevin D. Browne

Keyword(s):

Systematic Review ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Sex Offenders ◽

Sex Offender ◽

Assessment Tools ◽

Sexual Recidivism ◽

Risk Assessment Tools ◽

Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽

Male Sex ◽

Male Sex Offenders

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Absolute Recidivism Rates Predicted By Static-99R and Static-2002R Sex Offender Risk Assessment Tools Vary Across Samples

Criminal Justice and Behavior ◽

10.1177/0093854812443648 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 39 (9) ◽

pp. 1148-1171 ◽

Cited By ~ 94

Author(s):

Leslie Helmus ◽

R. Karl Hanson ◽

David Thornton ◽

Kelly M. Babchishin ◽

Andrew J. R. Harris

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Sex Offender ◽

Assessment Tools ◽

Recidivism Rates ◽

Risk Assessment Tools ◽

Sex Offender Risk Assessment

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Peripheral atherosclerosis and abdominal aortic aneurysm as a new risk factors of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with stable CAD receiving long-term antithrombotic therapy

European Journal of Preventive Cardiology ◽

10.1093/eurjpc/zwab061.130 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

V Korobkova ◽

AL Komarov ◽

OO Shakhmatova ◽

MV Andreevskaya ◽

EB Yarovaya ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Antithrombotic Therapy ◽

Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding ◽

Atherosclerotic Burden ◽

Abdominal Aortic ◽

Stable Cad ◽

Upper Gastrointestinal

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is the most common hemorrhagic complication in stable CAD patients receiving antithrombotic therapy. It seems that atherosclerotic burden may increase the overall bleeding frequency. However, this factor has never been taken into account with UGIB risk assessment. We aimed to assess the predictive value of atherosclerotic burden (peripheral atherosclerosis – PAD and abdominal aortic aneurysm - AAA) for UGIB in patients with stable CAD receiving long-term antithrombotic therapy. Patients and Methods. A single center prospective Registry of Long-term AnTithrombotic TherApy (REGATTA-1 NCT04347200) included 934 pts with stable CAD (78.6% males, median age 61 [IQR 53-68] yrs). 77,3 % of patients received dual antiplatelet therapy due to recent PCI with a switch to aspirin monotherapy after 6 months. 17,6% of patients received aspirin only, 5,1 % of patients received oral anticoagulants because of concomitant atrial fibrillation. Risk assessment of UGIB was performed according to the 2015 European Society of Cardiology guidelines (we were not able to identify only Helicobacter pylori infection). Additional ultrasound screening for PAD (lower limbs and cerebrovascular beds) and AAA was applied. The primary outcome was any overt UGIB (BARC ≥2). Results The frequency of PAD was 18,8%, AAA – 2,4%, PAD and/or AAA - 20,5%. In a total 2335 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up - 2,5 yrs, IQR 1,1 – 5.1), UGIB occurred in 51 patients (incidence at 1 year 1,9 per 100 patients). The median time to first occurrence of UGIB was 72 [IQR 13-214] days. Comparing the Kaplan-Meyer curves, the UGIB developed three times more often in patients with coexisted PAD and/or AAA vs isolated CAD (19.8% vs 6.5%, Log-Rank p = 0.00006). The difference remains consisted in regression model taking in account 2015 ESC panel of UGIB risk factors (OR 3.4; CI 1.7–6.9, p = 0,0005). Conclusions Atherosclerotic burden (concomitant PAD and/or AAA) is an independent predictor of UGIB in patients with stable CAD receiving long-term antithrombotic therapy.

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