Using Logistic Regression Modeling to Predict Sexual Recidivism

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 350-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe ◽  
Pamela J. Freske
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Contemporary Sample ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
High Level

This study presents the results from efforts to revise the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), one of the most widely used sex offender risk-assessment tools. The updated instrument, the MnSOST-3, contains nine individual items, six of which are new. The population for this study consisted of the cross-validation sample for the MnSOST-R ( N = 220) and a contemporary sample of 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. To score and select items for the MnSOST-3, we used predicted probabilities generated from a multiple logistic regression model. We used bootstrap resampling to not only refine our selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. The results indicate the MnSOST-3 has a relatively high level of predictive discrimination, as evidenced by an apparent AUC of .821 and an optimism-corrected AUC of .796. The findings show the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest risk offenders. Although estimating a penalized maximum likelihood model did not improve the overall calibration, the results suggest the MnSOST-3 may still be useful in helping identify high-risk offenders whose sexual recidivism risk exceeds 50%. Results from an interrater reliability assessment indicate the instrument, which is scored in a Microsoft Excel application, has an adequate degree of consistency across raters (ICC = .83 for both consistency and absolute agreement).

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 60 (16) ◽  
pp. 1928-1941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Ongoing Debate ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Frequentist Probability

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals’ risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism.

Absolute Recidivism Rates Predicted By Static-99R and Static-2002R Sex Offender Risk Assessment Tools Vary Across Samples

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (9) ◽  
pp. 1148-1171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Helmus ◽  
R. Karl Hanson ◽  
David Thornton ◽  
Kelly M. Babchishin ◽  
Andrew J. R. Harris
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment

Updating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (7) ◽  
pp. 2063-2080 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Case Control Studies ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
External Risk

Actuarial scales like the Static-99R are widely used to predict an individual’s risk of sexual recidivism. However, current actuarial scales only provide rates of detected sex offenses over 10-year follow-up and do not account for all recidivism risk factors. Therefore, some forensic evaluators extrapolate, adjust, or override recidivism rates derived from actuarial scales to predict the lifetime risk of committed offenses that accounts for external risk factors, those not addressed by the actuarial scales. However, critics contend that altering rates from actuarial scales degrades their predictive validity. This article makes the case for extrapolating risk for time of exposure and for evidence-based external risk factors. It proposes using odds ratios (ORs) from case-control studies to adjust predictions from follow-up cohort studies. Finally, it shows how evaluators can apply ORs and their margins of error to sex offender risk assessment.

The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (14) ◽  
pp. 1593-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood ◽  
Sharon M. Kelley ◽  
James C. Mundt
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Sexually Violent Person ◽  
Male Sex Offenders

The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates. This study provides alternative 5- and 10-year recidivism rates based on logistic regression analyses of the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group that includes the Bridgewater sample. These rates fit the observed 2009 data well and have smaller confidence intervals. We propose that using alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group is a viable option for assessing sexually violent person (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.

Megan’s Law 20 Years Later: An Empirical Analysis and Policy Review

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 1028-1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen M. Zgoba ◽  
Wesley G. Jennings ◽  
Laura M. Salerno
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Megan's Law ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Before And After ◽  
General Recidivism

This present study examines the sexual and general recidivism rates of 547 convicted sex offenders released before and after the enactment of Megan’s Law in New Jersey. Presenting the longest Megan’s Law evaluation, participants were followed for an average of 15 years after release (range = 10-29 years). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression equations were estimated to identify covariates significantly associated with both sexual and general recidivism. Group-based trajectories of general recidivism within the 10 years post–prison release were also estimated and compared according to pre–Megan’s Law and post–Megan’s Law release status. No differences in recidivism rates were noted between the cohorts, but differences emerged in the offending trajectories of the high-risk group of offenders within 10 years of release. These results highlight the lack of impact that sex offender registration and notification (SORN) laws have on sexual and general reoffending rates postrelease.

Sex Offender Risk Assessment and the Law

1996 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip H. Witt ◽  
Joseph DelRusso ◽  
Jessica Oppenheim ◽  
Glenn Ferguson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sexual Interest ◽  
Clinical Prediction ◽  
Current Application ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
Sex Offender Recidivism ◽  
A Current

After discussing the historical, legal, and criminal justice context, the article reviews risk assessment principles for sex offenders. Issues of actuarial vs. clinical prediction, base-rate considerations, and duration of prediction are reviewed. The article next addresses specific factors found to predict sex offender recidivism, factors such as indicators of deviant sexual interest and an antisocial, psychopathic lifestyle. Finally, the article provides a current application in the form of New Jersey's Registrant Risk Assessment Scale to illustrate the risk assessment principles.

Similar Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R Risk Tool for White, Black, and Hispanic Sex Offenders in California

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1125-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung C. Lee ◽  
R. Karl Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Cultural Bias ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Assessment Procedures

Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispanic, n = 719) in the state of California. Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among White, Black, and Hispanic sex offenders (all area under the curve [AUC] values >.70; odds ratios >1.39). Base rates (at a Static-99R score of 2) with a fixed 5-year follow-up across ethnic groups were very similar (2.4%-3.0%) but were significantly lower than the norms (5.6%). The current findings support the use of Static-99R in risk assessment procedures for sex offenders of White, Black, and Hispanic heritage, but it should be used with caution in estimating absolute sexual recidivism rates, particularly for Hispanic sex offenders.

Dimensions Associated with Assessments of Sex Offender Recidivism Risk

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 569-589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caton F. Roberts ◽  
Dennis M. Doren ◽  
David Thornton
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Factor Structure ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Structure Information ◽  
Sex Offender Recidivism ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Individual Risk Factors

This research explored empirical dimensions of sex offender recidivism risk. Study 1 portrayed descriptive statistics and factor structure information concerning actuarial risk instruments and diagnoses derived from a sample of sex offenders being evaluated for civil commitment in Wisconsin. Study 2 used a sample from England and Wales to analyze the relationships between individual risk factors commonly found as items within actuarial scales. Factor structure results from Study 2 conceptually overlapped those found in the first sample, and variables developed from this factor structure predicted sexual reconviction as well. Results from these two studies are discussed in terms of separable components of risk for sexual recidivism and the roles those components may play in processes underlying sexual reoffense.

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