Role of Exposure in Analysis of Road Accidents

Exposure is a key variable in traffic safety research. In the literature, it is noted as the first and primary determinant of traffic safety. In many cases, however, no valid exposure measure is available. In Belgium, monthly traffic counts for 12 years are available. This offers the opportunity to investigate the added value of exposure in models, next to legal, economic, and climatologic variables. Multiple regression with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) errors is used to quantify the impact of these factors on aggregated traffic safety. For each dependent variable, a model with and without exposure is constructed. The models show that exposure is significantly related to the number of accidents with persons killed and seriously injured and to the corresponding victims, but not to the lightly injured outcomes. Moreover, the addition or deletion of exposure does not influence the effects of the remaining variables in the model. The effects of exposure clearly depend on the type of measure used and on the time horizon considered. The framework of a regression model with ARMA errors allows for missing variables being accounted for by the error term. Even without a variable such as exposure, valid models can be constructed.

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Road barriers: modern solutions for improving traffic safety

10.36652/1684-1298-2021-6-43-48 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 43-48

Author(s):

Keyword(s):

Traffic Safety ◽

Traffic Accident ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Mechanical Damage ◽

Road Accidents ◽

Road Users ◽

Urgent Task ◽

The Moment ◽

Energy Absorbing ◽

The Impact

Improving the system of preventive measures aimed at reducing the severity of the consequences of road accidents is an urgent task. Road deaths are constantly increasing and there is a need for a comprehensive approach to creating safe road conditions. The purpose of this study is to analyze the promising designs of road barriers designed to prevent uncontrolled exit of vehicles from the roadway of the highway and to develop the design of energy-absorbing fencing. Barrier barriers must not only be safe for road users, but must also ensure their safety, as well as preserve the elements after hitting the fence. Analytical studies have shown that in order to reduce mechanical damage to vehicles and reduce the severity of injuries to the driver and passengers, it is necessary to develop a road fence design that allows you to extinguish the impact energy at the moment of contact between the car and the fence. Keywords: fencing, barrier, safety, traffic accident

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Erasmus Skills

10.15366/9788483447802 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Keyword(s):

Personal Development ◽

Added Value ◽

Council Of Europe ◽

New Host ◽

International Context ◽

Host Culture ◽

Sources Of Support ◽

The Impact ◽

Different Sources

Students participating in mobility experiences need to constantly adapt to new circumstances, not only during the experience itself, but also before leaving and after returning to their home country. They change their lifestyle, get acquainted with other cultural forms and, in some cases, they even change habits and attitudes to adapt to the new host culture. In this scenario, the different sources of support for students are of great added-value, e.g. family, friends, classmates, as well as the receiving institution – higher education institutions (HEIs) in our case. The supporting role of HEIs in the process of sending students abroad could go beyond the administrative dimension of it. A way of doing that is by offering a provision of support services on the acknowledgment and maximisation of their learning process and acquired competences (understood as a combination of knowledge, skills and attitudes – see Boyatzis, 1982; or Council of Europe, 2018) gained during their adaptation to a new international context. In this way, HEIs could increase the impact of such mobility experiences on students’ professional and personal development.

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The time series regression analysis in evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia

Model Assisted Statistics and Applications ◽

10.3233/mas-210533 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (3) ◽

pp. 197-210

Author(s):

Utriweni Mukhaiyar ◽

Devina Widyanti ◽

Sandy Vantika

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Moving Average ◽

Autoregressive Moving Average ◽

Transfer Function Model ◽

Function Model ◽

Time Series Regression ◽

Vector Autoregressive ◽

Daily Data ◽

The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia on the USD/IDR exchange rate using the Transfer Function Model and Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX) Model. This paper uses daily data on the COVID-19 case in Indonesia, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the IDX Composite period from 1 March to 29 June 2020. The analysis shows: (1) the higher the increase of the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia will significantly weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate, (2) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia six days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.003%, (3) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia seven days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.17%, and (4) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia eight days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.24%.

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EMD Based on Time-Sequence and Window Function and its Application in Diagnosis of Machinery Faults

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.470.353 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 470 ◽

pp. 353-356

Author(s):

Ren Ze Luo ◽

Peng Cao ◽

Yuan Hua Fu ◽

Ya Bin Huang ◽

Qing Yang

Keyword(s):

Signal Analysis ◽

Moving Average ◽

Time Sequence ◽

Window Function ◽

Autoregressive Moving Average ◽

End Effect ◽

Improved Method ◽

Mode Decomposition ◽

Time Varying Parameter ◽

The Impact

To solve the end effect occurring in empirical mode decomposition adopted in the course of decomposition, we propose an improved method on the basis of time-sequence analysis and cosine window function. First, the ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) of time-varying parameter is adopted to extend signals, and thus the extended data can be smoothly connected with the original signal at the end. Second, the extended signals are processed with cosine window, so that the extended errors will exert no impact on the existing data. Finally, the signals processed as above mentioned will be decomposed with EMD to confine the end effect to the ends of the signal. The simulation and fault signal analysis prove that the proposed method can effectively reduce the impact of the end effect and be applied in rotating machinery fault diagnosis.

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CUSUM chart to monitor autocorrelated counts using Negative Binomial GARMA model

Statistical Methods in Medical Research ◽

10.1177/0962280216686627 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 27 (9) ◽

pp. 2859-2871 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Orlando Yesid Esparza Albarracin ◽

Airlane Pereira Alencar ◽

Linda Lee Ho

Keyword(s):

Control Charts ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Moving Average ◽

Health Surveillance ◽

Autoregressive Moving Average ◽

Cumulative Sum ◽

Moving Average Models ◽

Cumulative Sum Control ◽

The Impact ◽

Autoregressive Moving Average Models

Cumulative sum control charts have been used for health surveillance due to its efficiency to detect soon small shifts in the monitored series. However, these charts may fail when data are autocorrelated. An alternative procedure is to build a control chart based on the residuals after fitting autoregressive moving average models, but these models usually assume Gaussian distribution for the residuals. In practical health surveillance, count series can be modeled by Poisson or Negative Binomial regression, this last to control overdispersion. To include serial correlations, generalized autoregressive moving average models are proposed. The main contribution of the current article is to measure the impact, in terms of average run length on the performance of cumulative sum charts when the serial correlation is neglected in the regression model. Different statistics based on transformations, the deviance residual, and the likelihood ratio are used to build cumulative sum control charts to monitor counts with time varying means, including trend and seasonal effects. The monitoring of the weekly number of hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases for people aged over 65 years in the city São Paulo-Brazil is considered as an illustration of the current method.

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Analysis of Factors Influencing the Density of Fatalities on National Roads in Poland

Journal of Konbin ◽

10.2478/v10040-008-0150-3 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 221-234

Author(s):

Wojciech Kustra ◽

Kazimierz Jamroz

Keyword(s):

Traffic Safety ◽

Road Traffic ◽

Road Accident ◽

Road Accidents ◽

Road Traffic Safety ◽

Eu Directive ◽

Factors Influencing ◽

Safety Improvement ◽

Improvement Measures ◽

The Impact

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Density of Fatalities on National Roads in PolandIn Poland 20% of the total number of accidents occur on the national roads, which constitute 7% of the length of all roads. In the case of fatalities this share is significantly higher as it constitutes up to 36% of the total casualties. In accordance with the EU Directive (Journal of Laws EU L. 319/59) the level of road traffic safety should be raised by targeting investment on the most dangerous road sections. Finding the dependence between road and traffic factors and the number of accidents and casualties of road accidents may be helpful in predicting safety levels and selecting road traffic safety improvement measures. The paper presents the experience of other countries and preliminary tests results of the impact of the selected factors on the density and the number of road accident fatalities on the national roads in Poland.

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Increasing the level of traffic safety - the role of standardization in the field of vehicle control and testing in Serbia

Put i saobraćaj ◽

10.31075/pis.67.02.08 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 67 (2) ◽

pp. 69-75

Author(s):

Vojislav Božanić ◽

Vlastimir Dedovic ◽

Milan Božović

Keyword(s):

Traffic Safety ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Vehicle Control ◽

Iso 17025 ◽

The Republic ◽

High Level ◽

And Control ◽

Vehicle Testing ◽

The Impact

The paper presents an overview of the most important regulations and institutions affecting the level of quality and fittingness of the vehicle fleet, in order to increase the level of general traffic safety in the Republic of Serbia. The Traffic Safety Agency, among other things, alone or in cooperation with others, regulates, controls and implements the system of homologation, testing and control of conformity of vehicles, equipment and parts. It authorizes and supervises other organizations for vehicle control and testing. The role of standardization in this process is dual: first - it refers to the subject of testing - vehicles, and second - to the quality of testing - authorized organizations. The paper discusses the important provisions of regulations for vehicle testing and analyzes the impact of the standards ISO 17020 and ISO 17025 on the work of authorized organizations. In conclusion, it was proposed that in order to achieve and maintain high level of testing quality, mandatory accreditation of authorized organizations should be prescribed. Mandatory application of the standards would have a positive impact on the traffic safety segment which depends on the technical characteristics of the vehicle, and as well, reduce the Agency's obligations.

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POPULATION−BASED SERO−EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDY PROTOCOL FOR THE IMPACT OF SMOKING ON SARS−COV−2 INFECTION AND COVID−19 OUTCOMES − THE TROINA STUDY

10.1101/2021.04.29.21256236 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Riccardo Polosa ◽

V. Tomaselli ◽

P. Ferrara ◽

A. C. Romeo ◽

S. Rust ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Smoking Status ◽

Population Based ◽

Added Value ◽

Serum Cotinine ◽

Related Information ◽

Seroprevalence Data ◽

Antibody Levels ◽

The Impact

After the global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS−CoV−2), research has highlighted several aspects of the pandemic, focusing on clinical features and risk factors associated with infection and disease severity. However, emerging results on the role of smoking in SARS−CoV−2 infection susceptibility or COVID−19 outcomes are conflicting, and their robustness remains uncertain. In this context, this project aims at quantifying the proportion of SARS−CoV−S antibody seroprevalence, studying the changes in antibody levels over time, and analyzing the association between smoking status and infection using seroprevalence data. The added value of this research is that the current smoking status of the population to be studied will be biochemically verified, in order to avoid the bias associated with self−reported smoking status. As such, the results from this survey may provide actionable metric to study the role of smoking in SARS−CoV−2 spread, and therefore implement the most appropriate public health measures to control the pandemic. The research design involves a 6-month prospective cohort study with serial sampling of the same individuals. Each participant will be surveyed about their demographics and COVID−19−related information, and blood sampling will be collected upon recruitment and at specified follow−up time points (namely, after 8 and 24 weeks). Blood samples will be screened for the presence of SARS−CoV−2 specific antibodies and serum cotinine. Overall, we expect to find a higher prevalence of antibodies in individuals at high−risk for viral exposure (i.e., healthcare or other essential workers), according to previous literature, and to refine current estimates on the association between smoking status and SARS−CoV−2/COVID−19. Our results may serve as a reference for future clinical research and the methodology could be exploited in public health sectors and policies.

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Sero−Epidemiological Survey On The Impact Of Smoking On Sars−Cov−2 Infection And Covid−19 Outcomes − The Troina Study Protocol (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.32285 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Riccardo Polosa ◽

Venera Tomaselli ◽

Pietro Ferrara ◽

Alba C. Romeo ◽

Sonja Rust ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Smoking Status ◽

Epidemiological Survey ◽

Added Value ◽

Healthcare Personnel ◽

Serum Cotinine ◽

Related Information ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Impact

UNSTRUCTURED After the global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), research has highlighted several aspects of the pandemic, focusing on clinical features and risk factors associated with infection and disease severity. However, emerging results on the role of smoking in SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility or Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes are conflicting, and their robustness remains uncertain. In this context, this study aims at quantifying the proportion of SARS-CoV-S antibody seroprevalence, studying the changes in antibody levels over time, and analyzing the association between the biochemically verified smoking status and SARS-CoV-2 infection. The research design involves a 6-month prospective cohort study with serial sampling of the same individuals. Each participant will be surveyed about their demographics and COVID-19-related information, and blood sampling will be collected upon recruitment and at specified follow-up time points (namely, after 8 and 24 weeks). Blood samples will be screened for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies and serum cotinine, being the latter the principal metabolite of nicotine, which will be used to assess participants’ smoking status. Discussion: Overall, we expect to find a higher prevalence of antibodies in individuals at high-risk for viral exposure (i.e., healthcare personnel or other essential workers), according to previous literature, and to refine current estimates on the association between smoking status and SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. The added value of this research is that the current smoking status of the population to be studied will be biochemically verified, in order to avoid the bias associated with self-reported smoking status. As such, the results from this survey may provide actionable metric to study the role of smoking in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 outcomes, and therefore implement the most appropriate public health measures to control the pandemic. Results may also serve as a reference for future clinical research and the methodology could be exploited in public health sectors and policies.

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Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy

Journal of Risk and Financial Management ◽

10.3390/jrfm13040066 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 66 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Xiao-Guang Yue ◽

Xue-Feng Shao ◽

Rita Yi Man Li ◽

M. James C. Crabbe ◽

Lili Mi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Inflection Point ◽

Moving Average ◽

Comparison Method ◽

Autoregressive Moving Average ◽

Average Model ◽

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽

Autoregressive Moving Average Model ◽

Moving Average Model ◽

The Impact ◽

China’S Economy

This study first analyzes the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and Key Point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) graphs, followed by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, Autoregressive Moving Average model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors, and Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing to predict infections, deaths, and GDP in China. Finally, it discusses and assesses the impact of these results. This study argues that even if the risks and impacts of the epidemic are significant, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady development.

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