scholarly journals Risk Assessment in Juvenile and Young Adult Offenders: Predictive Validity of the SAVRY and SAPROF-YV

Assessment ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 107319112095974
Author(s):  
Anneke T. H. Kleeven ◽  
Michiel de Vries Robbé ◽  
Eva A. Mulder ◽  
Arne Popma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Young Adult ◽  
Juvenile Offenders ◽  
Protective Factors ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Developmental Differences ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Dutch Sample

Most juvenile risk assessment tools heavily rely on a risk-focused approach. Less attention has been devoted to protective factors. This study examines the predictive validity of protective factors in addition to risk factors, and developmental differences in psychometric properties of juvenile risk assessment. For a national Dutch sample of 354 juvenile and young adult offenders (16-26 years) risk and protective factors were retrospectively assessed at discharge from seven juvenile justice institutions, using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk – Youth Version (SAPROF-YV). Results show moderate validity for both tools predicting general, violent, and nonviolent offending at different follow-up times. The SAPROF-YV provided incremental predictive validity over the SAVRY, and predictive validity was stronger for younger offenders. Evidently both the SAVRY and SAPROF-YV seem valid tools for the assessment of recidivism risk in juvenile and young adult offenders. Results highlight the importance of protective factors, especially in juvenile offenders, emphasizing the need for a balanced risk assessment.

scholarly journals Improving risk assessment in schizophrenia: epidemiological investigation of criminal history factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 206 (5) ◽  
pp. 424-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina Witt ◽  
Paul Lichtenstein ◽  
Seena Fazel
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Criminal History ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
Violent Offence ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Incremental Predictive Validity

BackgroundViolence risk assessment in schizophrenia relies heavily on criminal history factors.AimsTo investigate which criminal history factors are most strongly associated with violent crime in schizophrenia.MethodA total of 13 806 individuals (8891 men and 4915 women) with two or more hospital admissions for schizophrenia were followed up for violent convictions. Multivariate hazard ratios for 15 criminal history factors included in different risk assessment tools were calculated. The incremental predictive validity of these factors was estimated using tests of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.ResultsOver a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 17.3% of men (n=1535) and 5.7% of women (n=281) were convicted of a violent offence. Criminal history factors most strongly associated with subsequent violence for both men and women were a previous conviction for a violent offence; for assault, illegal threats and/or intimidation; and imprisonment. However, only a previous conviction for a violent offence was associated with incremental predictive validity in both genders following adjustment for young age and comorbid substance use disorder.ConclusionsClinical and actuarial approaches to assess violence risk can be improved if included risk factors are tested using multiple measures of performance.

Are Protective Factors Valid Constructs? Interrater Reliability And Construct Validity Of Proposed Protective Factors Against Sexual Reoffending

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (11) ◽  
pp. 1448-1467
Author(s):  
Gwenda M. Willis ◽  
Sharon M. Kelley ◽  
David Thornton
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Construct Validity ◽  
Protective Factors ◽  
Interrater Reliability ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Sexual Offence ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Most sexual recidivism risk assessment tools focus primarily on risk factors and deficits without consideration for strengths or protective factors which might mitigate reoffense risk. The current study is the first in a research program designed to develop and validate the Structured Assessment of PROtective Factors for violence risk—Sexual Offence version (SAPROF-SO), a measure of protective factors against sexual reoffending. The study aimed to test interrater reliability and construct validity of the SAPROF-SO with a high-risk ( n = 40) and routine ( n = 40) sample. Interrater reliability between three independent raters was generally good to excellent for the SAPROF-SO domain and Total scores across both samples and compared favorably with validated measures of dynamic risk. Moreover, the SAPROF-SO demonstrated construct validity and was moderately independent of existing measures of risk. Findings open the door for a more balanced, strengths-based, and accurate approach to recidivism risk assessment.

The predictive validity of youth violence risk assessment tools: a systematic review

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 776-796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Lian Koh ◽  
Andrew Day ◽  
Bianca Klettke ◽  
Michael Daffern ◽  
Chi Meng Chu
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Youth Violence ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Violence Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Factors Predicting Desistance From Reoffending: A Validation Study of the SAPROF in Sexual Offenders

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 697-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dahlnym Yoon ◽  
Daniel Turner ◽  
Verena Klein ◽  
Martin Rettenberger ◽  
Reinhard Eher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Interrater Reliability ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Incremental Validity ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Limited Extent ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

The present study aims at validating the German version of the Structured Assessment of PROtective Factors (SAPROF) for violence risk in a representative sample of incarcerated adult male sexual offenders. Sexual offenders ( n = 450) were rated retrospectively with the SAPROF using the database of the Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in the Austrian Prison System. Interrater reliability and predictive validity of the SAPROF scores concerning desistance from recidivism were calculated. Concurrent and incremental validity were tested using the combination of the SAPROF and the Sexual Violence Risk–20 (SVR-20). Interrater reliability was moderate to excellent, and predictive accuracy for various types of recidivism was rather small to moderate. There was a clear negative relationship between the SAPROF and the SVR-20 risk factors. Whereas the SAPROF revealed itself as a significant predictor for various recidivism categories, it did not add any predictive value beyond the SVR-20. Although the SAPROF itself can predict desistance from recidivism, it seems to contribute to the risk assessment in convicted sexual offenders only to a limited extent, once customary risk assessment tools have been applied. Implications for clinical use and further studies are discussed.

scholarly journals Assessing Protective Factors for Adolescent Offending: A Conceptually Informed Examination of the SAVRY and YLS/CMI

Assessment ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 959-975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jodi L. Viljoen ◽  
Aisha K. Bhanwer ◽  
Catherine S. Shaffer ◽  
Kevin S. Douglas
Keyword(s):  
Protective Factors ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Protective Effects ◽  
Adolescent Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Relevant Role ◽  
Research Assistants

Although the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) are among the most widely used adolescent risk assessment tools, they conceptualize and measure strengths differently. As such, in this study, we compared the predictive validity of SAVRY Protective Total and YLS/CMI Strength Total, and tested conceptual models of how these measures operate (i.e., risk vs. protective effects, direct vs. buffering effects, causal models). Research assistants conducted 624 risk assessments with 156 youth on probation. They rated protective factors at baseline, and again at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month follow-up periods. The SAVRY Protective Total and YLS/CMI Strength Total inversely predicted any charges in the subsequent 2 years (area under the curve scores = 0.61 and 0.60, respectively, p < .05). Furthermore, when adolescents’ protective total scores increased, their self-reported violence decreased, thus providing evidence that these factors might play a causally relevant role in reducing violence. However, protective factors did not provide incremental validity over risk factors. In addition, because these measures are brief and use a dichotomous rating system, they primarily captured deficits in protective factors (i.e., low scores). This suggests a need for more comprehensive measures.

scholarly journals Clinicians’ Perceptions of the Implementation of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for Violence Risk (SAPROF) on an Inpatient Forensic Unit

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Domjancic ◽  
Treena Wilkie ◽  
Shaheen Darani ◽  
Brittney Williams ◽  
Bandhana Maheru ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Protective Factors ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Consensus Scoring ◽  
Additional Value

The Structured Assessment of PROtective Factors for Violence Risk (SAPROF) is an assessment tool that examines protective factors when assessing for violence risk. There is limited research on clinicians’ perceptions of the use and implementation of risk assessment tools, and this study aimed to examine the experiences of clinicians using the SAPROF in a low secure forensic rehabilitation inpatient unit in Canada. An exploratory research design was used, and five clinicians participated in semi-structured interviews. Data was analyzed using a thematic approach and three central themes were identified: understanding of the patient from a strengths-based point of view, providing clinicians with a focus on how to help the patient, and bringing in opportunities to collaborate as a team. The findings highlight the additional value of the SAPROF as tool in helping forensic teams to adopt strengths based approaches to risk assessment, enhancing treatment planning and inter-professional collaboration.   Keywords: strengths, risk assessment, SAPROF, consensus scoring, recovery

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