The predictive and incremental validity of ADHD beyond the VRAG-R in a high-risk sample of young offenders

The VRAG-R is a well-established actuarial risk-assessment instrument, which was originally developed for assessing violent recidivism risk in adult male offenders. Whether or not the VRAG-R can also predict violent recidivism in young offenders is unclear so far. In the emergence of juvenile offending, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) seems to be of major importance suggesting that it could be relevant for risk assessment as well. Thus, we examined the predictive accuracy of the VRAG-R in a high-risk sample of N = 106 (M = 18.3 years, SD = 1.8) young offenders and assessed the incremental predictive validity of ADHD symptomatology beyond the VRAG-R. Within a mean follow-up time of M = 13 years (SD = 1.2), n = 65 (62.5%) young offenders recidivated with a violent offense. We found large effect sizes for the prediction of violent and general recidivism and re-incarcerations using the VRAG-R sum scores. Current ADHD symptomatology added incremental predictive validity beyond the VRAG-R sum scores concerning the prediction of general recidivism but not of violent recidivism. The results supported the use of the VRAG-R for predicting violent recidivism in young offenders. Because ADHD symptomatology improves the predictive performance of the VRAG-R regarding general recidivism, we argue that addressing ADHD symptoms more intensively in the juvenile justice system is of particular importance concerning a successful long-term risk management in adolescents and young adults.

Specificity and incremental predictive validity of implicit attitudes: studies of a race-based phenotype

Four studies involving 2552 White American participants were conducted to investigate bias based on the race-based phenotype of hair texture. Specifically, we probed the existence and magnitude of bias in favor of Eurocentric (straight) over Afrocentric (curly) hair and its specificity in predicting responses to a legal decision involving the phenotype. Study 1 revealed an implicit preference, measured by an Implicit Association Test (IAT), favoring Eurocentric over Afrocentric hair texture among White Americans. This effect was not reducible to a Black/White implicit race attitude nor to mere perceptual preference favoring straight over curly hair. In Study 2, the phenotype (hair) IAT significantly and uniquely predicted expressions of support in response to an actual legal case that involved discrimination on the basis of Afrocentric hair texture. Beyond replicating this result, Studies 3 and 4 (the latter preregistered) provided further, and even more stringent, evidence for incremental predictive validity: in both studies, the phenotype IAT was associated with support for a Black plaintiff above and beyond the effects of two parallel explicit scales and, additionally, a race attitude IAT. Overall, these studies support the idea that race bias may be uniquely detected by examining implicit attitudes elicited by group-based phenotypicality, such as hair texture. Moreover, the present results inform theoretical investigations of the correspondence principle in the context of implicit social cognition: they suggest that tailoring IATs to index specific aspects of an attitude object (e.g., by decomposition of phenotypes) can improve prediction of intergroup behavior.

Risk Tolerance Profiling Measure: Testing Its Reliability and Validities

This study examines the degree to which the customer risk profiling measure (CRPM), commonly used by financial institutions to determine loss tolerance of investors, is psychometrically valid in assessing risk tolerance and predicting anxiety after experiencing a significant investment loss. Data were collected online from 91 respondents with various investment experience, Results suggest that CPRM is significantly correlated with the Grable and Lytton's Financial Risk Tolerance Scale (G/L-RTS), a validated financial risk tolerance measure. CPRM is also able to predict anxiety after experiencing a significant investment loss. Furthermore, CRPM also demonstrates incremental predictive validity above and beyond G/L-RTS in predicting anxiety after investment loss.

The Utility of SAPROF-YV Ratings for Predicting Recidivism in Male Youth Under Community Supervision in Singapore

There is bourgeoning empirical support for the usage of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) across many jurisdictions, but there is a dearth of research on the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for Violence Risk—Youth Version (SAPROF-YV). This study examined (a) the predictive validity of the SAPROF-YV ratings for general recidivism and (b) the incremental predictive validity of the SAPROF-YV ratings when used in conjunction with the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) 2.0 ratings. Using a sample of 822 male youths who were involved with the justice system and under community supervision in Singapore, the results showed that the SAPROF-YV total score and final protection judgment rating were significantly predictive of general recidivism. Moreover, the SAPROF-YV total score and final judgment rating showed incremental predictive validity over the YLS/CMI 2.0 total score and risk rating. Overall, the results suggest that SAPROF-YV ratings are suited for assessing justice-involved youth within the Singaporean context and can be used in conjunction with YLS/CMI 2.0 ratings for predicting recidivism.

Re-assessing the incremental predictive validity of Implicit Association Tests

Indirect measures of attitudes or stereotypes, such as the Implicit Association Test (IAT), assess associations that are relatively automatic, unintentional, or uncontrollable. A primary argument for the IAT’s use is that it can predict relevant outcomes beyond parallel direct measures, such as self-report (a claim referred to as demonstrating incremental predictive validity). Prior work on this issue relied primarily on least squares linear regression analyses, which are unable to correct for measurement (un)reliability and may then seriously inflate false positive rates in claims of incremental predictive validity. Properly accounting for the impact of measurement reliability requires using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). In a pre-registered analysis, we investigated 10 IATs and 250 outcomes variables ( N > 14,000), and found that 69.6% of outcomes were reliably correlated with the IAT. Among outcomes that were associated with both the IAT and self-report, the IAT showed incremental predictive validity in 58.6% of cases using least squares linear regression analysis and 59.2% of cases when using SEM, with the two analytic approaches reaching the same conclusion 91.4% of the time. Though the two analysis strategies largely converged, discrepancies were large enough to suggest a non trivial percentage of conclusions drawn from least squares linear regression will be erroneous. As only SEM properly accounts for measurement reliability, it should be adopted in future analyses. To facilitate that goal, we provide tools for researchers to complete SEM analyses on tests concerning the incremental predictive validity of the IAT.

Static and Dynamic Assessment of Violence Risk Among Discharged Forensic Patients

This study evaluated the predictive validity of structured instruments for violent recidivism among a sample of 82 patients discharged from a maximum security forensic psychiatric hospital. The incremental predictive validity of dynamic pre–post change scores was also assessed. Each of the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 Version 3 (HCR-20V3), Psychopathy Checklist–Revised, Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability, Violence Risk Scale (VRS), and Violence Risk Appraisal Guide–Revised was rated based on institutional files. The study instruments significantly predicted community-based violent recidivism (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.68-0.85), even after controlling for time at risk using Cox regression survival analyses. Dynamic change scores computed from the HCR-20V3 Relevance ratings and from the VRS also demonstrated incremental predictive validity, controlling for baseline scores. The findings provided support for the use of the study instruments to assess violence risk and for the consideration of dynamic changes in risk—provided that valid means of assessment are employed.

Predictive Validity of the MAYSI-2 and PAI-A for Suicide-Related Behavior and Nonsuicidal Self-Injury Among Adjudicated Adolescent Offenders on Probation

This prospective study evaluated the ability of the MAYSI-2 and PAI-A to predict suicide-related behavior (SRB) and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) among adjudicated adolescent offenders on probation. Predictive validity of the MAYSI-2 for SRB and NSSI has generally been postdictively examined among detained adolescents. In addition, no published studies have examined the predictive validity of the PAI-A for SRB and NSSI among adolescent offenders. Neither the MAYSI-2 nor PAI-A added incremental predictive validity above lifetime SRB or NSSI. However, several MAYSI-2 and PAI-A subscales were predictive of SRB or NSSI. With some exceptions, most recommended instrument cut-off scores differentiated between low-risk and high-risk youth. These findings suggest that the MAYSI-2 and PAI-A hold promise for evaluating SRB and NSSI among justice-involved youth. In addition, these findings contribute to more informed decisions regarding the use of these tools and can be used to inform SRB and NSSI prevention efforts.