Convergence hypothesis in tourism markets and activities in Taiwan

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (8) ◽  
pp. 1037-1044 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sakiru Adebola Solarin
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Club Convergence ◽  
Convergence Hypothesis ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Robustness Check

Tourism policies do not only focus on how to improve arrivals from different tourism markets but also for different tourism activities. However, studies on convergence hypothesis of tourist arrivals, which can provide guidelines on how tourism policies should be conducted, have concentrated on convergence of tourism markets. The main contribution of this study is that in addition to convergence hypothesis in tourism markets, we have considered convergence hypothesis in tourism activities. We focus on Taiwan, and using a recently developed residual augmented least squares unit root test that allows for structural breaks and non-normality, we observe that convergence exists in the 15 major tourism markets and in 4 of the 5 major tourism activities in Taiwan. As a robustness check, we have also used a club convergence approach, and the results provide dominant evidence for club convergence in the tourism sector of Taiwan. The policy implications of the findings are provided within the article.

IS THE REPORTS-BASED MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM A NEW PANEL RESIDUAL AUGMENTED LEAST SQUARES UNIT ROOT TEST

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-35
Author(s):  
SAKIRU ADEBOLA SOLARIN ◽  
CHRIS STEWART
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Cross Sectional Dependence ◽  
Measure Of Uncertainty

To avoid spurious inferences, researchers analyzing the dimensions of uncertainty need to determine whether it is nonstationary. The degree of persistence of uncertainty also indicates the duration of the negative impact of an uncertainty shock on the economy. We use a new panel residual augmented least squares unit root test that allows for heterogeneous structural breaks in both intercepts and slopes of a series to determine the degree of persistence of the reports-based measure of uncertainty and whether it is nonstationary for 143 countries. This group of countries accounts for 99% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP). To assess the robustness of our results, we also use recently developed univariate time-series unit root tests that allow for structural breaks and panel unit root tests that accommodate cross-sectional dependence and nonlinearity. Furthermore, an autoregressive wild bootstrap approach is utilized to examine the stationarity of the series. The results are virtually unambiguous in indicating that the reports-based measure of uncertainty is stationary in all countries considered. The results also suggest that uncertainty has a negative impact on the growth rate of GDP. The policy implications of the results are also discussed.

Convergence in per capita carbon footprint and ecological footprint for G7 countries: Evidence from panel Fourier threshold unit root test

2021 ◽  
pp. 0958305X2110114
Author(s):  
Veli Yilanci ◽  
Muhammed Sehid Gorus ◽  
Sakiru Adebola Solarin
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Convergence Hypothesis ◽  
International Climate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Nonlinear Behaviors ◽  
Nonlinear Unit Root Tests

This paper aims to explore the convergence of per capita carbon and ecological footprints in G7 countries during 1961–2016. For this purpose, we propose a new unit root test in the panel setting–the panel Fourier threshold unit root test. This test takes into consideration both multiple smooth structural changes and nonlinearity. According to the literature, the power of the nonlinear unit root tests is reduced in the case of ignoring structural breaks. Therefore, we expect to get more reliable empirical findings by utilizing this methodology. The empirical results of this paper show that these series have nonlinear behaviors for the period 1961–2016. Furthermore, they demonstrate that the absolute convergence hypothesis is valid in G7 countries for both regimes. Thus, governments can conduct common environmental policies, including international climate summits and agreements, instead of national-based policies to mitigate environmental deterioration in their countries.

A comment on ‘Testing the validity of quasi-PPP hypothesis: evidence from a recent panel unit-root test with structural breaks’

2013 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Ventosa-Santaulària ◽  
M. Gómez-Zaldívar
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Panel Unit Root Test ◽  
Panel Unit Root

A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-92
Author(s):  
Sara Muhammadullah ◽  
Amena Urooj ◽  
Faridoon Khan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The study investigates the query of structural break or unit root considering four macroeconomic indicators; unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth, and inflation rate of Pakistan. The previous studies create ambiguity regarding the stationarity and non-stationarity of these variables. We employ Zivot & Andrews (1992) unit root test and Step Indicator Saturation (SIS) method for multiple break detection in mean. GDP growth and inflation rate are stationary at level whereas unit root tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of the unemployment rate and interest rate at level. However, Zivot and Andrew unit root test with a single endogenous break indicates that the unemployment rate and interest rate are stationary at level with a single endogenous break. On the other hand, the SIS method reveals that the series are stationary with multiple structural breaks. It is inferred that it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the unemployment rate and interest rate to attain stationarity. The results of this study confirmed that there exist multiple breaks in the macroeconomic variables considered in the context of Pakistan.

scholarly journals Transportation Dynamic Behaviour of Structural Break and Consumer Price Index

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-290
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Dynamic Behaviour ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Break Points

This paper studies the dynamic behaviour of transportation price in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah from 2004 to 2015 using disaggregated monthly price data of consumer price index (CPI). For that, unit root tests and cointegration tests with structural breaks are incorporated. The findings indicated that (i) both Zivot and Andrews unit root test and Perron unit root test provided fairly similar results; most of the break points occurred in 2008, (ii) the variables cointegrate in the Johansen cointegration test which indicates that there is a long-run relationship and (iii) the Gregory and Hansen test also demonstrated some form of cointegration with structural break(s), especially in 2008. Overall, this study intends to match the structural break points with the comparable critical economic events

scholarly journals Is the Club Convergence Hypothesis Validy for Turkey Tourism Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Fatih Kaplan ◽  
Erdoğan Öztürk ◽  
Şule Güngör
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Club Convergence ◽  
Convergence Hypothesis ◽  
Tourism Management ◽  
Stationary Analysis ◽  
Convergence Club ◽  
Transition Modeling

This study empirically revisits and investigates the tourism convergence via using the convergence club algorithm developed by Phillips and Sul (2007: Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests. Econometrica.75, 1771–1855). Abbott, De Vita and Altinay (2012: Revisiting The Convergence Hypothesis For Tourism Markets: Evidence From Turkey Using The Pairwise Approach. Tourism Management, 33, 537-544.) not to support club convergence hypothesis valid for Turkey tourism market. Yilanci and Eris (2012: Are tourism markets of Turkey converging or not? A Fourier stationary analysis. Anatolia, 23, 207-216) and, Ozcan and Erdogan (2015: Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root. Current Issues in Tourism, 1-18) support convergence hypothesis valid for some Turkey tourism market among countries. Therefore, unlike the findings of previously studies, we submit a club convergence for Turkey.

Response surfaces estimates for the Dickey-Fuller unit root test with structural breaks

1999 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 279-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep Lluı́s Carrion i Silvestre ◽  
Andreu Sansó i Rosselló ◽  
Manuel Artı́s Ortuño
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Response Surfaces

scholarly journals Breaks, trends and unit roots in commodity prices: a robust investigation

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atanu Ghoshray ◽  
Mohitosh Kejriwal ◽  
Mark Wohar
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks ◽  
Trend Breaks

AbstractThis paper empirically examines the time series behavior of primary commodity prices relative to manufactures with reference to the nature of their underlying trends and the persistence of shocks driving the price processes. The direction and magnitude of the trends are assessed employing a set of econometric techniques that is robust to the nature of persistence in the commodity price shocks, thereby obviating the need for unit root pretesting. Specifically, the methods allow consistent estimation of the number and location of structural breaks in the trend function as well as facilitate the distinction between trend breaks and pure level shifts. Further, a new set of powerful unit root tests is applied to determine whether the underlying commodity price series can be characterized as difference or trend stationary processes. These tests treat breaks under the unit root null and the trend stationary alternative in a symmetric fashion thereby alleviating the procedures from spurious rejection problems and low power issues that plague most existing procedures. Relative to the extant literature, we find more evidence in favor of trend stationarity suggesting that real commodity price shocks are primarily of a transitory nature. We conclude with a discussion of the policy implications of our results.

The effects of shocks on Turkish tourism demand: Evidence using panel unit root test

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481661989983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yagmur Saglam ◽  
Apostolos Ampountolas
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Panel Unit Root Test ◽  
Panel Unit Root

This empirical study examines the stationarity of tourism demand in Turkey in response to the effects of structural breaks, which indicate external or internal shocks based on tourist arrivals from 12 Slavic-speaking countries between 2000 and 2016. We employed a panel unit root test based on the Flexible Fourier approach, which Karul enhanced to allow gradual shifts and a smooth transition process; structural break dates come from the Carrion-i-Silvestre unit root test framework. The empirical findings indicate that there are differences in the effects of these structural breaks across the 12 countries in question.

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