scholarly journals The impact of childhood varicella vaccination on the incidence of herpes zoster in the general population: modelling the effect of exogenous and endogenous varicella-zoster virus immunity boosting

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Sauboin ◽  
Katsiaryna Holl ◽  
Paolo Bonanni ◽  
Anne A. Gershon ◽  
Bernd Benninghoff ◽  
...  
2013 ◽  
Vol 06 (02) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Rousseau ◽  
Tristan Bourcier ◽  
Joseph Colin ◽  
Marc Labetoulle ◽  
◽  
...  

Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infections are widely distributed in the general population. The lifetime risk of herpes zoster is estimated to be 10–20 %, increasing with age (1–4). Since herpes zoster ophthalmicus (HZO) accounts for 20 % of all locations of shingles, the lifetime risk of HZO is about 1–2 %. The management of ocular complications of VZV infection is now well codified, but sequellae still can occur, despite an armamentarium effective in limiting viral replication and its immune consequences.


2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1804) ◽  
pp. 20142509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Marziano ◽  
Piero Poletti ◽  
Giorgio Guzzetta ◽  
Marco Ajelli ◽  
Piero Manfredi ◽  
...  

Varicella zoster virus (VZV) causes varicella upon first exposure and may reactivate later in life into herpes zoster (HZ), with a risk that is thought to be reduced by re-exposures to VZV. Given the decades-long time scales of reactivation and its dependence on the accumulation of re-exposure episodes, adopting a long-term perspective may be useful to correctly interpret current epidemiological trends of VZV. In this study, we investigate the possible impact of demographic changes on varicella and HZ in Spain, using an age-structured mathematical model informed with historical demographic data and calibrated against age-specific profiles of varicella seroprevalence and HZ incidence data. The model qualitatively reproduces the remarkable growth of HZ incidence observed in Spain between 1997 and 2004, before the introduction of varicella vaccination programmes. We demonstrate that this growth may be partially ascribed to the reduction of varicella circulation that followed the overall decline of the birth rate in the twentieth century. Model predictions further suggest that, even under the most optimistic projections, HZ incidence will continue its rise until at least 2040. Considering the effect of demographic changes can help interpreting variations in epidemiological trends of HZ, contributing to a more accurate evaluation of vaccination programmes against VZV.


1992 ◽  
Vol 108 (3) ◽  
pp. 513-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. P. Garnett ◽  
B. T. Grenfell

SUMMARYThis paper uses mathematical models and data analysis to examine the epidemiological implications of possible immunologically mediated links between patterns of varicella and herpes-zoster incidence in human communities. A review of previously published reports does not clarify whether or not there is a relationship between the incidence of varicella and the incidence of zoster. However, new analysis of data collected by the Royal College of General Practitioners provides indirect evidence for the hypothesis that a high intensity of varicella transmission suppresses viral reactivation. The significance of this finding for proposed varicella vaccination campaigns is explored by a review of published data on the use of the vaccine. No significant difference is shown to exist between the risk of zoster caused by the vaccine and the wild virus. A mathematical model is then developed to take into consideration the influence of the prevalence of varicella on viral reactivation and the impact of vaccination with attenuated virus, which may be able to recrudesce. Under some conditions, mass application of such vaccines may have the impact of increasing zoster incidence. The results presented here indicate that, before starting any vaccination programme against varicella, its consequences need to be assessed in much more depth.


2010 ◽  
Vol 100 (6) ◽  
pp. 1116-1122 ◽  
Author(s):  
James G. Donahue ◽  
Burney A. Kieke ◽  
Paul M. Gargiullo ◽  
Aisha O. Jumaan ◽  
Nicholas R. Berger ◽  
...  

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benson Ogunjimi ◽  
Evelien Smits ◽  
Niel Hens ◽  
Annick Hens ◽  
Kevin Lenders ◽  
...  

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