Towards an Improved Large-Scale Gridded Population Dataset: A Pan-European Study on the Integration of 3D Settlement Data into Population Modelling

Large-scale gridded population datasets available at the global or continental scale have become an important source of information in applications related to sustainable development. In recent years, the emergence of new population models has leveraged the inclusion of more accurate and spatially detailed proxy layers describing the built-up environment (e.g., built-area and building footprint datasets), enhancing the quality, accuracy and spatial resolution of existing products. However, due to the consistent lack of vertical and functional information on the built-up environment, large-scale gridded population datasets that rely on existing built-up land proxies still report large errors of under- and overestimation, especially in areas with predominantly high-rise buildings or industrial/commercial areas, respectively. This research investigates, for the first time, the potential contributions of the new World Settlement Footprint—3D (WSF3D) dataset in the field of large-scale population modelling. First, we combined a Random Forest classifier with spatial metrics derived from the WSF3D to predict the industrial versus non-industrial use of settlement pixels at the Pan-European scale. We then examined the effects of including volume and settlement use information into frameworks of dasymetric population modelling. We found that the proposed classification method can predict industrial and non-industrial areas with overall accuracies and a kappa-coefficient of ~84% and 0.68, respectively. Additionally, we found that both, integrating volume and settlement use information considerably increased the accuracy of population estimates between 10% and 30% over commonly employed models (e.g., based on a binary settlement mask as input), mainly by eliminating systematic large overestimations in industrial/commercial areas. While the proposed method shows strong promise for overcoming some of the main limitations in large-scale population modelling, future research should focus on improving the quality of the WFS3D dataset and the classification method alike, to avoid the false detection of built-up settlements and to reduce misclassification errors of industrial and high-rise buildings.

Harvest and Conservation of Sooty Shearwaters (Puffinus Griseus) in the Marlborough Sounds, New Zealand

<p>Customary harvest of wildlife can be an important mechanism through which indigenous people maintain a connection with their environment. Observations built up during harvesting events are also a useful way of monitoring change over time. However, not all traditional societies have lived harmoniously with their environment. Wildlife populations can become depleted quickly if not managed sustainably. Using traditional knowledge interviews, empirical data from two island populations and population modelling, I examined the viability of two island sooty shearwater populations in the Marlborough Sounds and their resilience to resumed, low-level harvest. The biology of the sooty shearwater populations was found to closely resemble that of populations found at higher latitudes. Historic harvest by Marlborough Maori probably had an important influence on the size of present day Marlborough populations. Viability models demonstrated that these populations were experiencing very low or negative intrinsic rates of increase. Population sizes have likely been affected by previous harvest and are not at carrying capacity. The populations are therefore vulnerable to demographic stochasticity, environmental variability and extrinsic factors such as fisheries bycatch. The low and negative growth rates for populations at small sizes not at carrying capacity are of concern where harvesting is proposed. This study provides a basis for ongoing research into the population trajectories of each island population. Harvesting is possible in one population provided an appropriate monitoring regime is established prior to harvest being undertaken, to ensure the long-term viability of Marlborough Sounds' sooty shearwater populations.</p>

Harvest and Conservation of Sooty Shearwaters (Puffinus Griseus) in the Marlborough Sounds, New Zealand

<p>Customary harvest of wildlife can be an important mechanism through which indigenous people maintain a connection with their environment. Observations built up during harvesting events are also a useful way of monitoring change over time. However, not all traditional societies have lived harmoniously with their environment. Wildlife populations can become depleted quickly if not managed sustainably. Using traditional knowledge interviews, empirical data from two island populations and population modelling, I examined the viability of two island sooty shearwater populations in the Marlborough Sounds and their resilience to resumed, low-level harvest. The biology of the sooty shearwater populations was found to closely resemble that of populations found at higher latitudes. Historic harvest by Marlborough Maori probably had an important influence on the size of present day Marlborough populations. Viability models demonstrated that these populations were experiencing very low or negative intrinsic rates of increase. Population sizes have likely been affected by previous harvest and are not at carrying capacity. The populations are therefore vulnerable to demographic stochasticity, environmental variability and extrinsic factors such as fisheries bycatch. The low and negative growth rates for populations at small sizes not at carrying capacity are of concern where harvesting is proposed. This study provides a basis for ongoing research into the population trajectories of each island population. Harvesting is possible in one population provided an appropriate monitoring regime is established prior to harvest being undertaken, to ensure the long-term viability of Marlborough Sounds' sooty shearwater populations.</p>

Population Pharmacokinetics of Levetiracetam and Dosing Evaluation in Critically Ill Patients with Normal or Augmented Renal Function

Levetiracetam is a broad-spectrum antiepileptic drug commonly used in intensive care units (ICUs). The objective of this study is to evaluate the adequacy of levetiracetam dosing in patients with normal or augmented renal clearance (ARC) admitted to the ICU by population modelling and simulation. A multicentre prospective study including twenty-seven critically ill patients with urinary creatinine clearance (CrCl) > 50 mL/min and treated with levetiracetam was developed. Levetiracetam plasma concentrations were best described by a two-compartment model. The parameter estimates and relative standard errors (%) were clearance (CL) 3.5 L/h (9%), central volume of distribution (V1) 20.7 L (18%), intercompartmental clearance 31.9 L/h (22%), and peripheral volume of distribution 33.5 L (13%). Interindividual variability estimates were, for the CL, 32.7% (21%) and, for V1, 56.1% (29%). The CrCl showed significant influence over CL. Simulations showed that the administration of at least 500 mg every 8 h or 1000 mg every 12 h are needed in patients with normal renal function. Higher doses (1500 or 2000 mg, every 8 h) are needed in patients with ARC. Critically ill patients with normal or ARC treated with levetiracetam could be at high risk of being underdosed.

Population modelling insights of extinct environments: the case of the Kem Kem palaeocommunity

The Kem Kem beds are well-known palaeontological deposits. Among the species that lived there, there are some large theropods, such as Deltadromeus agilis, Carcharodontosaurus saharicus, and Spinosaurus aegyptiacus. It is possible that these large predators were facultative scavengers, and they could compete for carrion. In the present paper, I simulate a small community module of this environment, consisting of Carrion, Fishes, Spinosaurus, and a functional group composed of large terrestrial Theropods. I assume that these top predators feed on carrion, but they also have exclusive food sources. I show that these exclusive food sources could have assured the possibility of coexistence, and in their absence, one top predator could be locally extinct.

Demographic methods in epidemiology

Demography is both shaped by and shapes infectious disease dynamics. Infectious pathogens can increase host mortality. Host birth rates introduce new susceptible individuals into the population, which allows infections to persist in the face of the depletion of susceptible individuals that can result from mortality or immunity that can follow infection. Many important processes in infectious disease epidemiology, from transmission to vaccination, vary as a function of age or life stage. Epidemiology thus requires demographic methods. This chapter introduces broad expectations for patterns emerging from the intersection between demography and epidemiology and presents a set of structured population modelling tools that can be used to dissect important processes, including next generation methods, and estimation of R0 in the context of stage structure and with important differences in time-scale between host demography and pathogen life cycle.

ROADMAP FOR ETHANOL BLENDING IN INDIA 2020-25: Report of the Expert Committee

Achieving energy security and the transitioning to a thriving low carbon economy is critical for a growing nation like India. Blending locally produced ethanol with petrol will help India strengthen its energy security, enable local enterprises and farmers to participate in the energy economy and reduce vehicular emissions. The Government of India notified the National Policy on Biofuels – 2018 (NPB–2018) on 4.06.2018 wherein, under the Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) Program, an indicative target of 20% blending of ethanol in petrol by 2030 was laid out.This committee owes its origin to a decision of the Cabinet Secretary in the meeting of the Committee of Secretaries held on 28.11.2020, on the subject ‘Manufacturing, Sales, Utilization and blending of ethanol’. Subsequently, the target year for achieving 20% ethanol blending in petrol was advanced to 2025 by CCEA in the meeting held on 21.12.2020. The committee noted that a very strong foundation for the ethanol blending program had been laid out.After soliciting inputs of relevant ministries and associations, analyzing progressive demand-supply projections, challenges in the manufacture of E20 vehicles and infrastructure of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the committee suggests a gradual rollout of E20 ethanol in the country to achieve the target by 2025. In the meantime, the rollout plan suggests pan-India availability of E10 from April, 2022 for use as a protection fuel to meet the demands of existing vehicles till April 2025. In this report, the committee has estimated an ethanol demand of 1016 cr. litres based on expected growth in vehicle population. Modelling exercise on expected penetration of electric vehicles estimates the ethanol demand for petrol blending in the range of 722-921 crore litres in 2025. The committee has, however, framed its recommendations on an optimistic demand for ethanol (1016 cr. litres) to ensure that the objectives of E20 are met by 2025.The current ethanol production capacity in India of 426 crore litres derived from molasses-based distilleries, and 258 cr. litres from grain based distilleries is proposed to be expanded to 760 cr. litres and 740 cr. litres respectively. This would be sufficient to produce 1016 cr. litres of ethanol required for EBP and 334 cr litres for other uses. This will require 60 lakh MT of sugar and 165 lakh MT of grains per annum in ESY 2025 to be used for producing ethanol, which the country can support. The committees’ generous demand estimates, and consequent supply projectionsgive us confidence that our suggested plan for E20 roll-out is robust.To get the ball rolling, MoP&amp;NG should proclaim and lay out the target for 10% ethanol blending of gasoline fuel all over the country by April, 2022. MoP&amp;NG should further initiate phased roll-out of 20% ethanol blending from April, 2023 onwards to enable action by all stakeholders, namely Oil Marketing Companies, vehicle manufacturers, service stations, distilleries, and entrepreneurs as per a detailed roll-out plan suggested (Figure 9.1). This should be supported by a simpler and quicker regulatory regime, preferably single window clearance by the States, MoEF&amp;CC, PESO, DFPD and MoP&amp;NG and the launch of educational campaigns for the consumers. When using E20, there is an estimated loss of 6-7% fuel efficiency for 4 wheelers which are originally designed for E0 and calibrated for E10, 3-4% for 2 wheelers designed for E0 and calibrated for E10 and 1-2% for 4 wheelers designed for E10 and calibrated for E20. SIAM has informed that with modifications in engines (hardware and tuning), the loss in efficiency due to blended fuel can be reduced. To compensate the consumers for a drop in efficiency from ethanol blended fuels, tax incentives on E10 and E20 fuel may be considered. SIAM has assured the committee that once the roadmap for availability of ethanol blended fuel in the country is issued by MoP&amp;NG, they would gear up to supply compatible vehicles in line with the roadmap. E20 material compliant and E10 engine tuned vehicles may be rolled out all across the country from April 2023. These vehicles can tolerate 10% to 20% of ethanol blended gasoline and also give optimal performance with E10 fuel. Vehicles with E20 tuned engines can be rolled out all across the country from April 2025. These vehicles would run on E20 only and will provide high performance.In recommendations (Chapter-9), the report lays out specific responsibilities of union ministries, state governments and vehicle manufacturers, which is summarised in Figure 9.1 as the suggested E20 rollout plan for 2025. To accelerate the adoption and transition to ethanol blended fuels, price incentives through tax relief at the retail level on ethanol blended fuel and tax incentives for vehicles compatible with E20 are suggested. The government may also encourage use of lower water consuming foodgrain crops like maize, and 2G feedstock for production of ethanol.