scholarly journals Estimate of economic impact of atmospheric radiation storm associated with solar energetic particle events on aircraft operations

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susumu Saito ◽  
Navinda Kithmal Wickramasinghe ◽  
Tatsuhiko Sato ◽  
Daikou Shiota
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Energetic Particle ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Solar Energetic Particle ◽  
Flight Time ◽  
Atmospheric Radiation ◽  
Flight Trajectory ◽  
Flight Route ◽  
Trajectory Generation Algorithm

AbstractA solar energetic particle (SEP) event generates a shower of secondary generated particles in the Earth’s atmosphere down to lower altitudes to cause an atmospheric radiation storm (ARS). The high-energy secondary particles cause additional radiation dose at altitudes where aircraft flies. The space weather information provided by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated space weather centers includes advisories on the solar radiation storm. The Warning System for AVIation Exposure to Solar energetic particle (WASAVIES), we can estimate the effective dose rate (EDR) along the flight path of the aircraft. However, it has not been well established how the operators of aircraft should react with the space weather advisories on the solar radiation storm. By using a flight trajectory generation algorithm and the global EDR distribution, the economic impacts of ARS associated with SEP events on aircraft operation, namely the flight path length, flight time, and fuel consumption, are estimated. The conditions of the peak of the ARS event on 20 January 2005 are used. The economic impacts for a flight route from New York, US to Tokyo, Japan, are estimated with constraints in flight routes to avoid the hazard of radiation and compared with those of the reference case without the ARS effects. The fuel consumption is shown to increase by 39–69 tons (33–58%) for a twin-engine, wide-body jet passenger aircraft, when a constraint is imposed on the flight altitude only. When the constraints are set on the aircraft altitude and the latitude, the flight time and the fuel consumption are both increased by 2.2–2.8 h (17–20%) and 32–48 tons (27–41%), respectively. If the ARS event duration is limited for 3 h, the increase in the fuel consumption is about 7.6–14 tons (6.4–12%). This economic impact may be reduced, if the space weather nowcast and forecast for the ARS and an optimal flight trajectory generation algorithm are used together. Setting more flexible constraints on the flight route and generating optimal flight trajectories with minimal economic impacts by fully utilizing the global EDR distribution is the next step.

scholarly journals Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with Flare X-ray peak ratios

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. A47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen W. Kahler ◽  
Alan. G. Ling
Keyword(s):  
Solar Flare ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Coronal Mass Ejections ◽  
Energetic Particle ◽  
Solar Energetic Particle ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
X Rays ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Versus Peak

Solar flare X-ray peak fluxes and fluences in the 0.1–0.8 nm band are often used in models to forecast solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Garcia (2004) [Forecasting methods for occurrence and magnitude of proton storms with solar soft X rays, Space Weather, 2, S02002, 2004] used ratios of the 0.05–0.4 and 0.1–0.8 nm bands of the X-ray instrument on the GOES spacecraft to plot inferred peak flare temperatures versus peak 0.1–0.8 nm fluxes for flares from 1988 to 2002. Flares associated with E > 10 MeV SEP events of >10 proton flux units (pfu) had statistically lower peak temperatures than those without SEP events and therefore offered a possible empirical forecasting tool for SEP events. We review the soft and hard X-ray flare spectral variations as SEP event forecast tools and repeat Garcia’s work for the period 1998–2016, comparing both the peak ratios and the ratios of the preceding 0.05–0.4 nm peak fluxes to the later 0.1–0.8 nm peak fluxes of flares >M3 to the occurrence of associated SEP events. We divide the events into eastern and western hemisphere sources and compare both small (1.2–10 pfu) and large (≥300 pfu) SEP events with those of >10 pfu. In the western hemisphere X-ray peak ratios are statistically lower for >10 pfu SEP events than for non-SEP events and are even lower for the large (>300 pfu) events. The small SEP events, however, are not distinguished from the non-SEP events. We discuss the possible connections between the flare X-ray peak ratios and associated coronal mass ejections that are presumed to be the sources of the SEPs.

scholarly journals SPARX: A modeling system for Solar Energetic Particle Radiation Space Weather forecasting

Space Weather ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 386-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. S. Marsh ◽  
S. Dalla ◽  
M. Dierckxsens ◽  
T. Laitinen ◽  
N. B. Crosby
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Energetic Particle ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Solar Energetic Particle ◽  
Particle Radiation ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting

scholarly journals Correlation between Intense Solar Energetic Particle Fluxes and Atmospheric Weather Extremes

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Anagnostopoulos ◽  
Sofia Anna Menesidou ◽  
Vasilios G. Vassiliadis ◽  
Alexandros Rigas
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Energetic Particle ◽  
Solar Energetic Particle ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Theoretical Interpretation ◽  
North East ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Particle Fluxes

In the past two decades the world experienced an exceptional number of unprecedented extreme weather events, some causing major human suffering and economic damage, such as the March 2012 heat event, which was called “Meteorological March Madness.” From the beginning of space era a correlation of solar flares with pressure changes in atmosphere within 2–3 days or even less was reported. In this study we wanted to test the possible relation of highly warm weather events in North-East America with Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For this reason we compared ground temperatures TM in Madison, Wisconsin, with energetic particle fluxes P measured by the EPAM instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft. In particular, we elaborated case events and the results of a statistical study of the SEP events related with the largest (Dst ≤ −150nT) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-induced geomagnetic storms, between with the years 1997–2015. The most striking result of our statistical analysis is a very significant positive correlation between the highest temperature increase. ΔTM and the time duration of the temperature increase ΔTM (r = 0.8, p <0.001) at “winter times” ( r = 0.5, p , 0.01 for the whole sample of 26 SEP examined events). The time response of TM to P was found to be in general short (a few days), but in the case of March 2015, during a gradual P8 increase, a cross-correlation test indicated highest c.c. within 1 day (p < 0.05). The March 2012 “meteorological anomaly” was elaborated in the case of South-East Europe, where, beside a period of strong winds and rainfall (6-13.3.2012), intense precipitation in North-East Greece (Alexandroupoli) were found to be correlated with distinct high energy flux enhancements. A rough theoretical interpretation is discussed for the space—atmospheric extreme weather relationship we found. However, much work should be done to achieve early warning of space weather dependent extreme meteorological events. Such future advances in understanding the relationships between space weather and extreme atmospheric events would improve atmospheric models and help people’s safety, health and life.

scholarly journals Multi-Objective Flight Altitude Decision Considering Contrails, Fuel Consumption and Flight Time

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dabin Xue ◽  
Kam K. H. Ng ◽  
Li-Ta Hsu
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Flight Time ◽  
Flight Altitude ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Distributions ◽  
True Airspeed ◽  
Total Travel Time ◽  
Flight Route

The rapid growth of air travel and aviation emissions in recent years has contributed to an increase in climate impact. Contrails have been considered one of the main factors of the aviation-induced climate impact. This paper deals with the formation of persistent contrails and its relationship with fuel consumption and flight time when flight altitude and true airspeed vary. Detailed contrail formation conditions pertaining to altitude, relative humidity and temperature are formulated according to the Schmidt–Appleman criterion. Building on the contrail formation model, the proposed model would minimise total travel time, fuel consumption and contrail length associated with a given flight. Empirical data (including pressure, temperature, relative humidity, etc.) collected from seven flight information regions in Chinese observation stations were used to analyse the spatial and temporal distributions of the persistent contrail formation area. The trade-off between flight time, fuel consumption and contrail length are illustrated with a real-world case. The results provided a valuable benchmark for flight route planning with environmental, flight time, sustainable flight trajectory planning and fuel consumption considerations, and showed significant contrail length reduction through an optimal selection of altitude and true airspeed.

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