Seismic Hazard and Loss Analysis for Spatially Distributed Infrastructure in Christchurch, New Zealand

The new Extended Optimization-Based Probabilistic Scenario method produces a small set of probabilistic ground motion maps to represent the seismic hazard for analysis of spatially distributed infrastructure. We applied the method to Christchurch, New Zealand, including a sensitivity analysis of key user-specified parameters. A set of just 124 ground motion maps were able to match the hazard curves based on a million-year Monte Carlo simulation with no error at the four selected return periods, mean spatial correlation errors of 0.03, and average error in the residential loss exceedance curves of 2.1%. This enormous computational savings in the hazard has substantial implications for regional-scale, policy decisions affecting lifelines or building inventories since it can allow many more downstream analyses and/or doing them using more sophisticated, computationally intensive methods. The method is robust, offering many equally good solutions and it can be solved using free open source optimization solvers.

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Ground Motion-Based Testing of Seismic Hazard Models in New Zealand

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ◽

10.1785/0120090336 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 100 (4) ◽

pp. 1407-1414 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

M. Stirling ◽

M. Gerstenberger

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Hazard Models

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Performance of response spectral models against New Zealand data

Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.5459/bnzsee.50.1.21-38 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 50 (1) ◽

pp. 21-38 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Chris Van Houtte

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Epistemic Uncertainty ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Strong Motion ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Crustal Earthquakes ◽

Spectral Models ◽

Strong Motion Database

An important component of seismic hazard assessment is the prediction of the potential ground motion generated by a given earthquake source. In New Zealand seismic hazard studies, it is commonplace for analysts to only adopt one or two models for predicting the ground motion, which does not capture the epistemic uncertainty associated with the prediction. This study analyses a suite of New Zealand and international models against the New Zealand Strong Motion Database, both for New Zealand crustal earthquakes and earthquakes in the Hikurangi subduction zone. It is found that, in general, the foreign models perform similarly or better with respect to recorded New Zealand data than the models specifically derived for New Zealand application. Justification is given for using global models in future seismic hazard analysis in New Zealand. Although this article does not provide definitive model weights for future hazard analysis, some recommendations and guidance are provided.

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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for spatially distributed infrastructure

Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics ◽

10.1002/eqe.2179 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. n/a-n/a ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Yeliang Han ◽

Rachel A. Davidson

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽

Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Spatially Distributed ◽

Distributed Infrastructure

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Re-thinking site amplification in regional seismic risk assessment

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1177/8755293019899956 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 36 (1_suppl) ◽

pp. 274-297 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Graeme Weatherill ◽

Sreeram Reddy Kotha ◽

Fabrice Cotton

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Site Amplification ◽

Direct Function ◽

Motion Models ◽

Topographic Slope ◽

Ground Motion Model ◽

Hazard And Risk

Probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard and risk over a geographical region presents the modeler with challenges in the characterization of the site amplification that are not present in site-specific assessment. Using site-to-site residuals from a ground motion model fit to observations from the Japanese KiK-net database, correlations between measured local amplifications and mappable proxies such as topographic slope and geology are explored. These are used subsequently to develop empirical models describing amplification as a direct function of slope, conditional upon geological period. These correlations also demonstrate the limitations of inferring 30-m shearwave velocity from slope and applying them directly into ground motion models. Instead, they illustrate the feasibility of deriving spectral acceleration amplification factors directly from sets of observed records, which are calibrated to parameters that can be mapped uniformly on a regional scale. The result is a geologically calibrated amplification model that can be incorporated into national and regional seismic hazard and risk assessment, ensuring that the corresponding total aleatory variability reflects the predictive capability of the mapped site proxy.

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Pitfalls in the estimation of seismic hazard

Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.5459/bnzsee.15.2.77-81 ◽

1982 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 77-81

Author(s):

Warwick D. Smith

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Return Period ◽

Earthquake Catalogue ◽

Historical Past

Computer catalogues of earthquakes make it rather simple to extract lists of earthquakes that are likely to have affected sites of interest during the historical past, and it is tempting to use such lists for estimation of seismic hazard. What must be borne in mind, however, is that the seismological record is only part of the information required for hazard estimates, that the earthquake catalogue may not be complete and that early epicentres and magnitudes may have large uncertainties. If ground motion is estimated from these approximate epicentres, further uncertainties creep in. Some myths about the concept of return period are exploded, and a bibliography of studies relevant to seismic hazard in New Zealand is presented.

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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Canterbury region, New Zealand

Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.5459/bnzsee.34.4.318-334 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 34 (4) ◽

pp. 318-334 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Mark Stirling ◽

Jarg Pettinga ◽

Kelvin Berryman ◽

Mark Yetton

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Active Faults ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Historical Seismicity ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Acceleration

We present the main results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Canterbury region recently completed for Environment Canterbury (formerly Canterbury Regional Council). We use the distribution of active faults and the historical record of earthquakes to estimate the levels of earthquake shaking (peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations) that can be expected across the Canterbury region with return periods of 150, 475 and 1000 years. The strongest shaking (e.g. 475 year peak ground accelerations of 0.7g or more) can be expected in the west and north to northwest of the Canterbury region, where the greatest concentrations of known active faults and historical seismicity are located. Site-specific analyses of eight towns and cities selected by Environment Canterbury show that Arthur's Pass and Kaikoura are located within these zones of high hazard. In contrast, the centres studied in the Canterbury Plains (Rangiora, Kaiapoi, Christchurch, Ashburton, Temuka and Timaru) are generally located away from the zones of highest hazard. The study represents the first application of recently-developed methods in probabilistic seismic hazard at a regional scale in New Zealand.

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Insights into seismic hazard from big data analysis of ground motion simulations

International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering ◽

10.2495/safe-v9-n1-01-12 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 01-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kristy F. Tiampo ◽

Javad Kazemian ◽

Hadi Ghofrani ◽

Yelena Kropivnitskaya ◽

Gero Michel

Keyword(s):

Big Data ◽

Data Analysis ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Big Data Analysis ◽

Ground Motion Simulations

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A subset of CyberShake ground-motion time series for response-history analysis

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1177/8755293020981970 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 875529302098197

Author(s):

Jack W Baker ◽

Sanaz Rezaeian ◽

Christine A Goulet ◽

Nicolas Luco ◽

Ganyu Teng

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Los Angeles ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Ground Motions ◽

Response Spectra ◽

Motion Time ◽

History Analysis ◽

Response History Analysis ◽

Simulated Ground Motions

This manuscript describes a subset of CyberShake numerically simulated ground motions that were selected and vetted for use in engineering response-history analyses. Ground motions were selected that have seismological properties and response spectra representative of conditions in the Los Angeles area, based on disaggregation of seismic hazard. Ground motions were selected from millions of available time series and were reviewed to confirm their suitability for response-history analysis. The processes used to select the time series, the characteristics of the resulting data, and the provided documentation are described in this article. The resulting data and documentation are available electronically.

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